NFL Week 2 Picks: Sicilian Revenge & Vegas Traps?

Sunday’s plays:

Denver +3
LAC -6
Zeke Over 39′ yards

Altruistic by nature, I like to mix in sports betting tips and advice with my picks, to help bettors in their own Battle vs. the Books.
And here is today’s lesson:

Revenge is NOT a reason to make a bet.

Revenge is NOT a club in the handicapper’s bag.

Revenge is NOT a tool on the handicapper’s belt.

When you lose a game, treat it like the receiver who dropped his last pass or the pitcher who just gave up a home run – forget about it, clear your mind, and move on.
Do not let a past loss influence your next bet.
With that said . . .
Last week the Pittsburgh Steelers screwed me on my first NFL bet of the season. This week I’m getting my revenge, taking the Denver Broncos +3.

Hey!
What happened to “Revenge is NOT a reason to make a bet??!!”

My roots are in Sicily.
We LIVE for revenge.
(Well, revenge and pasta. And a fine red wine. And Parmigiano Reggiano. And Prosciutto di Parma. But mainly revenge.)

Yes, Denver screwed me too last week when they lost to Seattle, but technically I screwed myself on that one. I bought the game too early at +5′ for half my wager and at +6 for the other half. The game closed at Seattle -6′. They won by six points, giving me a half point loss on half my +5′ and a push on my +6 in what shouldacouldawoulda been a win.
So that one’s on me.

Personal vendettas aside, I have two different handicapping methods I use to identify WF’s (Wrong Favs) in a game.
It’s only week two so I don’t have a lot of data to go on but one of my systems, WF1, says Denver should be the Fav in this game.
And that play is hitting at 100% this year!
(It’s only 1-0 but 100% sounds better, eh?)

For my second bet this week I’m taking the LA Chargers at the ridiculously overpriced -6.
If I think the line is ridiculous why am I playing it?
I think it’s a Vegas trap line.
NO. No, no!
There is NO such thing as a Vegas trap line. It’s an internet myth. You have enough things to worry about and try to factor into your ‘capping without adding myths into the mix.
In next week’s NFL article I’ll explain why it’s a myth. Fact, not opinion!

But I digress. Why the Chargers?
Okay, here goes, and I quote:
“When WF2 says the wrong team is favored and WF1 says the correct team is the Fav AND the point spread differential between the two is a touchdown or greater, take the WF1 team.
Why?
Because the WF2 team has a record of 2-5 in this spot, a 71% Fade.”

The Chargers fit those parameters in this game.

The 2-5 record is for college football this year. It was 2-6 in the WNBA this season.
That’s a combined 4-11, a 73% Fade, with a 15 game sample.

Will it work in the NFL too?
Who knows, I haven’t tried it before.
But that’s what handicapping is – a never ending, on-going process of trying to find a formula that works. Nine out of ten will be worthless. But when you hit on that tenth one it makes all the time and effort spent treasure hunting worth it. Because it makes your bankroll grow larger.

It looks like Harbaugh has his team ready, they coasted to a relatively easy 22-10 win at home vs the Raiders last week. I keep thinking that one of these days QB Herbert is going to live up to expectations and have a monster season, but I’ll settle for a single monster game.
Preferably this one.
I’m going to need it, laying six on the road.
I guess we’re about to find out if Carolina is as bad as they looked last week when they lost 47-10 to the Saints.

For this week’s prop bet I’m going with Zeke over 39′ rushing yards.
I posted this in the forum but it’s a homepage pick, too.
In week one Elliott had 40 yards on 10 carries against Cleveland’s tough rushing defense (number one in the league last year.) He’ll find it much easier to run against New Orleans.
I think 39′ is a bad number, maybe an overreaction to the Saints giving up just 52 total rushing yards to Carolina last week. But the Panthers were down 17-0 at the end of the first quarter and 30-0 at halftime, so they had no choice but to abandon the run game.
Our sponsor Bovada is offering the prop at a very reasonable -119.
If you don’t have an account at Bovada why not??!!
They’re one of the best houses out there for multiple options to bet on, such as props you won’t find anywhere else.

WHEN to buy recommendations:

Denver’s not going to get any more than the +3 at home, in fact some houses are moving to Pit-2′ with extra juice on the Fav. Grab the +3 now, at worst case pay a couple of extra cents to get the full FG if you have to.

LAC -6 starting to show extra juice on the Panthers, but I bought it at the readily available +6, -105.

The Zeke prop buy ASAP. If I’m correct and it’s a bad number they’re going to get hit on it and it will go up.

Recap: 0-2.5

Record: 0-2.5

Review: How did I get -2.5 in the loss column? As explained above, I had half a wager push on Denver +6.
Lost with Pittsburgh (Bastards. I’ll see you again on Sunday!) and lost with my prop bet on Engram, who only had four targets and one reception. I really liked my numbers on that prop but apparently I was off. Waaaay off. But no worries, Zeke will get it back for me this week.