NFL Week 16 Predictions: Titans vs. Colts Expert Picks Against the Spread

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, 12/22/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 22
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: CBS

Point spread: Tenn +3.5/Ind -3.5
Money line: Tenn +170/Ind -200
Over/under: 42.5

The Colts hope to keep their slim playoff chances alive when they host the hapless Titans for an AFC South bout Sunday afternoon.

Indianapolis basically gave a game away last Sunday to Denver, which really puts the Colts in a tough spot as far as the playoffs are concerned. However, they’re not dead yet.

Tennessee, on the other hand, has no hope left this season and still can’t figure out who should play quarterback.

NFL Betting Odds

The NFL Week 16 betting market opened Indianapolis at -4.5 for Sunday, with an O/U of right around 43. Early betting action dipped that line to 3.5.

Titans Betting Preview

Tennessee totes a three-game losing skid into Sunday after falling at home to Cincinnati last Sunday 37-27. The Titans led that game 14-7 well into the second quarter, then gave up the next 24 points of the game and could not recover.

 
Tennessee also came up short ATS as a six-point home dog.
 
That game played out very evenly all over the stat sheet; the Titans’ biggest problem was their six turnovers, including three bad interceptions from QB Will Levis.
 
In fact, Levis got pulled in the third quarter last week and has since been demoted. So it looks like Mason Rudolph, who put up some decent numbers in relief last week against the Bengals’ prevent defense, will get the start this week.
 
Two weeks ago, Tennessee led Jacksonville 6-0 in the fourth quarter but lost 10-6. Three weeks ago, the Titans got toasted at Washington 42-19.
 
At 3-11 overall Tennessee is playing out the string on this season, trying to figure out if they’ve got a QB of the future on the roster and whether they might have to change head coaches again this off-season.

Colts Betting Preview

 
Meanwhile, Indianapolis blew a chance to stay closer in the AFC playoff picture by losing at Denver last Sunday 31-13. The Colts led that game 13-7 in the third quarter and were about to go up 20-7, but RB Taylor bone-headedly dropped the ball just short of the plane, resulting in a touchback. Later, down by four but driving, Indy tried to get fancy but instead threw a pick-6 off a trick play, and that was about it.
 
The Colts out-gained the Broncos 310-193 but turned the ball over five times, which basically cost them 24 points.
 
Back in November, Indianapolis lost three straight games, albeit to three pretty good teams in Houston, Minnesota, and Buffalo. The Colts then won two of their next three to stay within a sniff in the AFC wild-card race. That’s why last week’s debacle hurts so much.
 
At 6-8 overall, Indianapolis now trails the 8-6 Chargers by two games for the No. 7 spot in the AFC playoff standings. But the Colts finish with three very winnable games while Los Angeles plays Denver next week. So Indianapolis is not dead yet.
 
On the injury front, Titans RB Pollard is dealing with a sore ankle, while Colts RB Taylor is dealing with a bruised ego.

By the Numbers

 
Tennessee is averaging 301 YPG on offense this season, 110 YPG on the ground. Defensively, the Titans are holding opponents to 297 YPG and 115 on the ground. This while playing what Sagarin (Sagarin.com) ranks as the 7th-toughest schedule in the League.
 
Indianapolis is averaging 311 YPG offensively, and 121 rushing but allowing 366 YPG, and 142 rushing. This while playing Sagarin’s No. 3 schedule.
 

Titans-Colts Recent History

 
Indianapolis owns a three-game winning streak on rival Tennessee, going 3-0 ATS. Last year, the Colts swept the two games from the Titans by scores of 23-16 and 31-28 (in overtime), and they won the first meeting this season back in October 20-17.
 
None of those three games matched Indy QB Richardson against Tennessee QB Mason.
 

Common Opponents

 
These teams have played ten common opponents this season: members of the AFC South and East and the NFC North. Indianapolis played those foes to 4-7 SU but 7-4 ATS and -3 points per game, Tennessee to 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS, and -8 PPG.
 

NFL Betting Trends

 
Tennessee ranks 10th in the League in time of possession at 30:48; Indianapolis ranks dead last at 26:41. Teams that win the TOP battle this season are covering the spread at a 62 percent clip.
 
Tennessee is 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS this season in games Rudolph took most of the snaps at QB, averaging 18 PPG.
 
Indianapolis is 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS in games. Richardson took most of the snaps and also averaged 18 PPG.
 

Totals Report

• The Over is 8-5 in Titans games this season, averaging 45 total points.
•  The totals are split 7-7 in Colts games, averaging 44 points.
•  The Under is 4-1 over the last five meetings between these teams.

Game Props

 
A scoreless quarter is priced at +200.
 

Free NFL Betting Pick

 
Regardless of what happened last week, the best unit on the field Sunday in Indy will be the Tennessee defense. Also, we expect Rudolph to be more productive and hopefully less generous than Levis. Also, the last six meetings between these teams have been decided by an average of five points. So, for a game that might well come down to a late field goal, we like 3.5 in our pocket. We’ll take the Titans plus the points.