NFL Week 15 Prediction: Bucs vs. Packers Insight

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS)

NFL Football Week 15

Date/Time: Sunday December 17th, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Lambeau Field Green Bay, WI

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: TB +3.5/GB -3.5

Moneyline: Bucs +155/Pack -175

Total: 41.5

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Last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pulled out a 29-25 victory over the Atlanta Falcons thanks to a breakout effort from running back Rachaad White, who racked up 102 rushing yards, 33 reception yards, and two touchdowns. The victory moved Tampa Bay into a 3-way tie for 1st place in the NFC South along with the Falcons and Saints. Technically, the Buccaneers currently lead the division because they have the best record in the NFC, which is the official tie-breaker. On Sunday, the Buccaneers will try to retain the top spot in the division with a difficult road trip to Lambeau Field to meet the Green Bay Packers.

At 6-7 SU, the Packers have the exact same record as the visiting Buccaneers this weekend. However, Green Bay is on the heels of an embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football against the New York Giants. In that game, the Packers defense was shredded for more than 200 yards on the ground by RB Saquan Barkely and former 3rd string QB Tommy DeVito. In total, the Packers gave up nearly 400 total yards to one of the worst offenses in the league in a 24-22 loss that essentially derailed their hopes of making the playoffs. The Packers are still in the running for an NFC Wildcard spot, but they may need to run the table to make it happen. Therefore, similar to the Bucs, this weekend’s showdown at Lambeau is a must-win for both teams in order to keep playoff hopes alive.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Analysis

From a match-up perspective, both offenses have shown similar characteristics this season. Before last week’s breakout game with RB Rachaad White, the Buccaneers were among the least productive rushing attacks in the league, averaging just 90 yards per game. Likewise, Green Bay has struggled significantly in the run game this year, which has been attributed mostly due to injuries. Starting RB Aaron Jones has been sidelined for the last three games and is questionable once again this Sunday. Backup RB AJ Dillon has failed to crack 75 yards in any start this year and does not have a single rushing touchdown in the entire season. Needless to say, the Packers have also struggled significantly in the running department.

As a result of the rushing struggles, both Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield and Green Bay QB Jordan Love have had extra weight on their shoulders this year. At times, both quarterbacks have been great but they have also been really bad at times as well. Oddly enough, Mayfield has played some of his best football on the road this season. However, I’m not sure that should be an expectation this week. The Packers’ pass defense has yielded just 200 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and ranks high in PFF coverage grades. Additionally, the Green Bay defense is expected to get star CB Jaire Alexander back this week after missing last week’s game due to a back injury.

Alexander is one of the top corners in the league and gives the Packers an excellent pairing against star Bucs WR Mike Evans, who has consistently had big performances throughout the season. I have stated several times this year that the Buccaneers’ offense relies heavily on feeding Evans the football, and Alexander should make that task difficult if he is able to go on Sunday. For that reason, I believe the match-ups favor Green Bay in this contest against a Bucs pass defense that has struggled to slow anyone. QB Jordan Love should have a great match-up opportunity, and that match-up will be even better if WR Christian Watson is able to return from a hamstring injury.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Trends

• The Bucs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Bucs have hit the “over” in four of the last six games.
• The Bucs are just 3-6 SU in the last nine games.
• The Bucs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games on the road.
• The Packers are 4-2 ATS in the last six games.
• The Packers have hit the “over” in four of the last five games.
• The Packers have hit the “under” in five of the last seven games at home.
• The Packers are 15-2 SU in the last 17 games against Tampa Bay at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Prediction

Keep an eye on Christian Watson’s injury status this week. If Watson is able to go, this becomes a high-confidence pick on the Packers because Tampa Bay will have to address the deep threat, which opens up opportunities in the run game and other areas of the field. If Watson is unable to go, I still like the match-up for Green Bay, just perhaps to a lesser degree. Either way, we are riding the home team here!

Jay”s Pick: Take the Packers -3.5