NFL Week 13 Analysis: Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Pick

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The Los Angeles Chargers make the trip to Foxborough on Sunday for a week 13 AFC matchup with the New England Patriots. Neither team is doing well, and both are coming off losses last week. The Chargers lost again on Sunday night, falling to the Ravens, 20-10, for their third consecutive loss, sitting at an ugly 4-7. It’s even worse for the Pats, spit out into this week an inglorious 2-9 losers of an ugly 10-7 affair at the hands of the Giants on Sunday, their 4th loss in a row. A combined 5-16-1 against the spread this season, who here can get us the cover on Sunday at Gillette Stadium?

Getting Ugly for the Patriots

You could point out the things that are wrong with one team only to have to circle back to account for the other half of the equation. But there are differences. At least with the Patriots, there are good reasons. This is the flip side of a long dynasty, where now they’re not catching breaks on the personnel front, particularly at quarterback. Their games are hard to watch, losers in their last two by scores of 10-7 and 10-6. Their receiver crew is filled with guys who would be extras on most other casts. Mac Jones continues to languish at QB. Rhamondre Stevenson is a good back, but as a featured gem of an offense, it leaves something to be desired.

If looking hard for a silver lining, there is some. Eight of the 11 games for New England this season were close. In five of their last six, the margin for victory was four points or less. At least they aren’t getting hammered for the most part. While they have given up big days to offenses like Dallas and Miami, for the most part, they hold their own against middling offenses or ones like the Chargers, who just aren’t in top gear. For how far they’ve fallen, at least the Pats aren’t descending to total laughingstock status.

2023 Harder on the Chargers?

Even going against a former dynasty in the Patriots, who are 2-9, maybe it’s the Bolts who land in this spot with a larger thud. One maybe even half-expected to see Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley sent packing in the wake of another loss and inept offensive showing on Sunday Night Football. Unlike with the Patriots, one struggles to find reasons for this situation. Injuries have hurt but shouldn’t have created this much dysfunction. Whatever Staley is doing is not working. And for a team with big-name talent throughout all areas on both sides of the ball, these results are horrifying. They can’t seem to get a good showing from both sides of the ball at the same time.

You look at the Chargers in this spot. You see Justin Herbert. You see Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen, along with a slew of supposed star players on the defense, even with Joey Bosa out. Then you look at the Patriots with a big deficit at QB, a no-name receiver package, and a “D” without a slew of recognizable names. They’ve also had injuries. The Chargers just look better. But that’s the problem—a cycle of underachievement that has now spun into a real crisis with this season looking to have gone off the tracks. The end of this regime is not a matter of if but rather when. It’s not going to work.

What to Do?

As a bettor, one is left with two unappealing choices. But from a value standpoint, do we take a look at the Patriots? Anyone doing so lately hasn’t been thrilled, with points so hard to extract. But what is it about a Chargers’ team that doesn’t seem to have a ton of fire in their bellies that makes you want to lay almost a TD on the road? It’s just hard to do. Sure, you can get that little offensive push, but then you’re just going to watch a defense slowly loosen up and let the opponent climb back into it. Or you tune in, and the offense is just spinning its wheels like it did last week or the week before in what seemed like a decent spot against Green Bay.

There simply can’t be much optimism surrounding a Chargers’ team whose recipe for success has gone totally flat. That’s especially so when you throw them on the road 3000 miles away where they have to cover a spread and think it’s all going to work out in what’s likely to be a game with some weather factors, as well. But then you turn your attention to the other side of the equation; you can’t help but bristle. But for as strange as it sounds, it’s almost like the Patriots are closer to getting the most of what they have, albeit with what they have not been much. It just suggests a higher level of functionality.

Take the Points

A viewpoint on this game that the Chargers are capable of an offensive push, and that’s enough to get behind them is understandable. However, I can’t help but think that the Patriots’ ability to manufacture close games might come in handy here. Maybe they can turn this into a stinker against a Chargers team that looks on the verge of checking out a little mentally, keep this close, and get in there under the number. I’m going with the Patriots in this one.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the New England Patriots plus 6 points.