NFL Week 12 Picks: Lions vs. Redskins

Detroit Lions (3-6-1 SU,4-6 ATS) vs. Washington Redskins (1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday November 24th, 2019. 1:00PM (EST)
Where: FedEx Field Landover, M.D.
TV: FOX

Point Spread: DET -3.5/WAS +3.5 (MyBookie)
Over/Under Total: 42.5

A pair of desperate teams will meet at FedEx Field this Sunday when the 1-9 SU Washington Redskins host the 3-6-1 SU Detroit Lions. The Redskins are starting to make a legitimate argument for the worst team in the NFL. Despite the lone one-point win over the Dolphins in week 6, the Redskins have completely fallen apart. Last week, quarterback Dwayne Haskins was seen begging his offensive line to protect him in a 34-17 loss to the Jets that yielded six sacks against Washington’s new starter. With tensions building in Landover, the Redskins best chance to score another victory before the season ends will be this week’s homestand against the Lions where oddsmakers have the Skins listed as 3.5 point underdogs.

Washington’s offense remains under the microscope

The Redskins fired former Head Coach Jay Gruden following a disastrous offensive start to the season, but things have only gotten worse in the aftermath of Gruden’s departure. The offense has turned to QB Dwayne Haskins who has struggled with just two touchdown passes and five picks. The running game has been non-existent with Adrian Peterson, and at the root of all the issues is an offensive line that may be one of the least talented groups in the NFL following the fallout with OT Trent Williams. I personally don’t believe Haskins is the guy Washington wants at quarterback, but to be fair, he has not been given a chance. The only good thing to note is that Haskins tossed his first two touchdowns in last week’s loss to the Jets to potentially give the rookie some confidence.

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In the last four games, the Redskins are averaging just 8.75 points per game and currently rank dead last in scoring averaging only 12.5 points per game on the season. Simply put, nothing has been working. Rookie WR Terry McLaurin was among the league’s biggest breakout stories through the first five weeks of the season with 408 yards and five touchdowns. In the four games since, McLaurin has been held to just 157 yards combined without any touchdowns. Perhaps the Redskins best option to get things turned around will be through running back Derrius Guice, who returned from IR to score on a 45-yard pass from Haskins in last week’s loss to the Jets. Despite Adrian Peterson getting the most carries in Guice’s first game back, Guice should be the focal point going forward given interim Head Coach Bill Callahan’s desire to run the football. If the Redskins commit to the run, they have a favorable match-up this week against the Lions.

Lions looking to snap 4 game losing streak as Stafford remains sidelined

Starting QB Matthew Stafford missed his 2nd straight game with broken bones in his back in last week’s 35-27 loss to the Cowboys. The Lions have refused to put a timetable on Stafford’s return, but he is not expected to play this week in Washington. Luckily, backup quarterback Jeff Friskel has not looked that bad. Despite completing less than 60% passing, Driskel has tossed three touchdowns with just one pick in his two games as a starter and was soundly effective against the Cowboys defense in week 10. The concerning aspect for the Lions remains their lack of running game due to multiple injuries at the running back position and a defense that has yielded more than 30 points in 4 of their last five games. Despite the injuries on offense, the Lions cannot win without improvement on the defensive side of the football. The defensive match-up is more favorable this weekend, but the offense will still ride or die on the arm of Driskel.

Detroit vs. Washington betting trends

The Lions have dropped five straight games ATS and are trending towards the “over” in 6 of their last eight games. The Redskins are just 2-7 ATS in their previous nine games and only 3-7 ATS in the past ten games against NFC opponents. Unlike the Lions, the Redskins recent trends have favored the under in 6 of the last seven games. Surprisingly, the Lions are just 1-16 SU against the Redskins in the previous 17 trips to Landover.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I really expect Guice and Peterson to be the focal point of Washington’s attack this week in a very winnable match-up against the Lions struggling defense. I know this will not be a popular pick, but I think the Redskins get the job done. Take Washington +3.5