NFL Top Picks for Week 15

Washington and Green Bay

After last Sunday’s games, my NFL play is in the danger zone. Plenty of time left, but if I’m going to hit my goals by season’s end I’m going to need some luck and a couple of strong plays. And I just may have two this week with Washington and Green Bay.

I’m laying -2′ with the Packers.
And because buying the hook worked out so well for me last week (yes, that’s sarcasm), I’m taking Washington from -7′ to – 7 (fortunately, there’s extra juice loaded onto the +7′ for New Orleans, so buying the hook off is pretty cheap. I got -116.)

I thought I’d get a split at worst case last week. I was using the two best teams in the league and only laying a field goal with each. But it didn’t work out that way.
I feel the same about these two picks; it’s a split in the worst case. But I’ve got some added mojo this time:

WF2 says New Orleans and Seattle should be the Favs.

WF1 says, “I don’t think so.”

And the differential between the suggested point totals and the spread makes them . . .
Yes, Stupid Asterisk Plays.
It shows up at the perfect time to help right my ship.

Last time I used this play was on 11/24 when the Tampa Bay Bucs banked me a unit against the Giants.
The overall record on the play is 2-10, an 83% Fade.
The Hm/Rd breakdown is 2-9 at Hm, 0-1 on the Rd, and both of these games are plays AGAINST Hm teams.

I’ll go over some standard stats, but they’re really not relevant. If your bankroll is on the wrong side of the ledger, take a deep breath. Don’t force plays, don’t raise the dollar amount of your standard wager.
Become more selective with your plays, using only your strongest ones. Time will tell as the scores aren’t in yet, but I’m feeling pretty lucky that two of my strongest percentage plays showed up this week.

Washington at New Orleans

I’m using a Washington team that’s playing with extra incentive – they’re in the hunt for a wild card spot.
At 8-5, they’re three games behind the Eagles for first place in the NFC East. With only four games left to play they’re not going to win the division.

Two wild cards are likely going to come from the NFC North, where second place Minnesota is two games ahead of Washington and third place Green Bay is one game ahead of them.
In the West, Seattle has eight wins and the Rams have seven, all of which means that to make the postseason Washington is going to have to finish strong. Fortunately, three of their four remaining games are against teams with losing records. Which means their have-to-win games should be easy-to-win games, starting this week with New Orleans.

Washington is 8-4-1 ATS overall,
3-2-1 on the Rd.
New Orleans is 5-8 ATS, 3-4 at Hm.

The Saints have dropped three straight. That looks good on paper but when you look closer they’ve lost by three points twice and six points once, not enough to cover the seven in this one. But of their ten losses this season, seven have been by more than a TD.

At 5-8, the Saints have no chance of making the postseason, so hopefully, there’ll be a little quit in them this week (having Tayson Hill out with injuries will help, and it will be a big boost if Derek Carr is out too. That’s another reason to grab this number now if Carr is out it’s going to go higher.)
Of the Saints eight losses five have come by a TD or more. Only three of Washington’s eight wins have come by a TD or more.

Green Bay at Seattle

The Packers are 7-6 ATS, 3-3 on the Rd.
The Seahawks are 6-6-1 ATS but just 2-5 at Hm, a good looking number for Packer backers this week.

Green Bay’s schedule has them facing the NFC West this year, and they’re going for the sweep.
They’ve already beaten the Rams (by 5 points), the Cardinals (by 21 points), and the 49ers (by 28 points.)
The only trophy left to bag is the Seahawks. With a double digit average margin of victory over the rest of the West, covering a 2′ point spread shouldn’t be too difficult.

It would be nice to get a win against Seattle. I bet four futures, Regular Season Win Totals. One of them is on the Seahawks and I’m not going to win it (looks like I’ll go 2-2 on my future bets, wins against the Giants and Bengals, losses with the Seahawks and Steelers.)
So it would be nice to get back a unit betting against them here.

This week’s plays:
Washington -7, -116
Green Bay -2′, -110

Recap: 0-2, -2.64
Record: 11-14.14
Review: If I told you Jeff Allen was going to throw three touchdowns AND run for three touchdowns versus the Rams, AND you only had to lay three points with Buffalo, would you bet the Bills?
Of course, you would.

And you would have lost, just like I did last Sunday.
Buffalo puts up 42 points and I can’t get a win vs a Rams team that averages just 21 PPG??!!

Thankfully, the Bills lost SU, too (like any true sports bettor, my allegiance is flexible; once it becomes obvious that a team is not going to cover the spread for me, I root for them to lose SU.)

The Chiefs could have saved me in the afternoon game. I was laying three points, which means if they won as I expected them to, only two numbers could beat me, a victory by either one point or two.
They won by two, completing my worst day of the season.