NFL Predictions: Jaguars vs. Raiders Best Bet & Expert Analysis

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12 SU, 5-8-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 16
Date/Time: Sunday, December 22, 2024, at 4:25 PM EST
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: CBS

The Jacksonville Jaguars make the trip to the desert to face the Las Vegas Raiders in week 16 AFC action from Allegiant Stadium. Both teams enter this spot having long known the season is a lost cause, with five wins among the two squads heading into week 16. Nevertheless, it’s still an interesting matchup that could have as much betting upside as the more-celebrated matchups of the week. As one could probably imagine, neither team enters this spot with any momentum. In fact, both teams lost last week to teams who had been also struggling to find a win. The Jaguars fell to the Jets on Sunday, 32-25, with a late Jets’ touchdown drive sealing the deal. The Raiders, meanwhile, get a short week after a MNF loss to the Falcons at home, 15-9. What’s the right move for this week?

The More Attractive Choice?

I wouldn’t paint Jacksonville as the better choice on the basis of them having one more win than the Raiders. Both teams are in the dumps with head coaches who won’t be there next season. The silver lining for the Jaguars this season is hard to locate from an overall success standpoint. Still, it’s all relative, and when the other sideline is occupied by the dysfunctional Raiders, things can resonate a bit more. In most spots, Jacksonville QB Mac Jones wouldn’t look good, but against this Raiders defense and with their own QB situation in even worse shape, Jones doesn’t look so bad. You have players like Brian Thomas, Jr. at least salvaging some individual success out of this whole debacle of a season. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby can do damage in this spot. They’re getting good tight-end play here and there. A cast of dangerous receivers are vying for more targets. Normally, it’s not the most tantalizing situation, but even on the road this week, it seems like a spot where some things can go well for this offense.

While the Jags can spring forward with a decent defensive showing here and there, it’s also not a spot that is all that daunting for the Raiders. One does wonder, however, what they can do about it. In their last two games against Atlanta and Tampa, two spots where it shouldn’t be that hard to mount some offensive success, they mustered a combined 22 points of scoring, including one touchdown. It’s unclear if the Raiders will get Aidan O’Connell back for this next game, with Desmond Ridder not doing so well in his time behind center. But it speaks to their issues when you’re looking for Aidan O’Connell to come save the day. Still, against this sometimes-faltering Jaguars’ defense, it’s not impossible that stud rookie tight end Brock Bowers or WR Jakobi Meyers can deliver a good game.

Before even getting into the specifics, functionality goes a long way. Not that the Jags are operating at the higher end of that spectrum, but it’s higher than the Raiders. Despite their woes, Jacksonville has actually been pretty solid from a betting standpoint. In the last eight weeks, they’ve failed to cover the spread only twice. The Raiders, meanwhile, have covered one spread in the last six weeks, that coming in a loss to the Chiefs, who have been death at the betting windows lately. While it doesn’t tell the whole story, it speaks to a higher level of dependability when you’re getting your money in there with Jacksonville.

Case for the Raiders

One part of the case is the Jaguars’ 3-11 record, which alone offers some degree of hope. In two of the last three games, the Raiders’ defense has had its moments. Granted, the Falcons haven’t been playing well, but after a first-quarter TD on MNF, they kept them out of the end zone for the duration of the game. A few weeks before that, they held the Chiefs to under 20 points and forced them to kick a late FG to win the game. Mac Jones has gotten some juice out of this offense for the Jaguars in spots lately, but he’s also coming off two games where he threw multiple picks in each one. It’s not easy to take an optimistic view on the Raiders’ defense, especially after losing Maxx Crosby for the season, but at home against a hit-and-miss Jaguars’ offense that can undermine itself, this is a spot where even they can perhaps have a say on what happens on Sunday.

I think things could have a different light thrown on them in the context of this matchup. We’ve seen glimpses of it already from the Jaguars’ offense at times in recent weeks. But maybe this is a spot where we start to see more of it for the Raiders, as well. With Bowers and Meyers, it’s not like they’re without weapons. Sure, they can’t run the ball, but maybe they will a little bit this week. And while the QB situation is dire, this is still a matchup that offers some possibilities.

Lay the Small Number on the Road Favorite

Taking the Jaguars as a road favorite seems like one of the worst things that you can do. It’s just when these teams line up, I get the feeling that it’s going to be that extra little kick the Jacksonville offense has that will be what ends up separating the two squads. I’d look for Etienne and Bigsby to get some things done, with enough big plays from Thomas, Jr., and others to keep the Raiders at arm’s length for the win and cover in Las Vegas. I’ll take the Jaguars.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus 2 points.