NFL Prediction: Steelers vs Ravens Pick & Betting Insights

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS)

Date and Time: January 6, 2024, 4:30 PM

Location: M&T Bank Stadium

Betting Odds

Spread: Pit -3.5/Bal +3.5

Total Points: Over/Under 36.5

Moneyline: Pitt -200,  Balt +165

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An interesting AFC North battle has the Steelers needing a win and some help to get into the playoffs, and the Ravens set in their AFC No. 1 seeding. HC John Harbaugh says he’ll be forthcoming on who will be playing after a practice or two, but waiting to bet this game may get you a worse line. Expert handicapper Rich Crew weighs in Week 18 and gives out his top ATS pick.

The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens at M&T Stadium with their playoff lives in the balance. That’s not the case for the Ravens, who secured the number one seed in the AFC with their blowout win over the Dolphins last week.

The spread on this game hit most NFL oddsboards with the Ravens a small favorite, but after the dust settled in Week 17, the Steelers have risen to as high as -4. The total line opened at 39 points and has slid to 36.5.

Head-to-Head Summary: In the last ten matchups, Pittsburgh Steelers have a 7-3 record against Baltimore Ravens, both straight up and against the point spread. The Steelers took the earlier meeting this season 17-10, getting the easy cover as a +4.5 home dog. They were outyarded 335-289 in the game but won the turnover battle, finishing +2 on the day.

Betting Odds Trends:

• Baltimore Ravens: 5-1 ATS in the last six games, 5-0 straight up (SU) in the last five games
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 15-8 ATS in the last 23 games, 15-8 SU in the last 23 games

Top Five Reasons Why Pittsburgh Covers

Motivation and Urgency: Unlike the Ravens, who have already secured their playoff spot and might not have much to play for in this game, the Steelers have a strong motivation to win. This urgency often translates into a more aggressive and focused performance on the field.

Potential Resting of Baltimore’s Key Players: With the Ravens potentially resting their key players to avoid injuries before the playoffs, Pittsburgh could face a less formidable opponent. This situation might allow the Steelers to capitalize on the absence of Baltimore’s star performers.

Strong Defensive Play: Pittsburgh boasts a solid defense, ranking 7th in the league in opponent points per game and 6th in opponent points per play. This strong defensive capability could be crucial in containing the Ravens’ offense, especially if Baltimore’s starters are resting.

Effective Rushing Game: The Steelers have a competent rushing offense, ranking 9th in rushes per game and 12th in rush yards per game. This strength could be pivotal in controlling the game tempo and keeping the Ravens’ offense off the field.

Turnover Margin: Pittsburgh excels in managing turnovers, with a +0.7 turnover margin per game, ranking them 2nd in the league. Capitalizing on turnovers could be a key factor in swinging the game in their favor, especially against a potentially less experienced Ravens lineup.

Crew’s Week 18 Pick

With nothing on the line except the chance to knock a division rival out of the playoffs, I expect the Ravens to rest numerous players. QB Lamar Jackson is healthy, but with his injury history, I don’t think he sees the field, and if he does, I doubt it exceeds a quarter. Rookie phenom WR Zay Flowers is dealing with a calf injury and should sit this out. The secondary is banged up, and it would shock me if they didn’t go with second and third-level players.
The Steelers’ offense has looked really good since Mason Rudolph took over at quarterback, winning both games and helping the team reach 30 or more points in each. With the likelihood of facing a defense primarily filled with backups and arguably their top offensive stars on the sidelines, the -3.5 seems manageable. Take Pittsburgh -3.5