NFL Picks Week 11: Bucs vs. 49ers Total Bet

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS)
NFL Football Week 11
Date/Time: Sunday November 19th, 2023. 4:05PM (EST)
Where: Levi’s Stadium Santa Clara, CA

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: TB +11.5/SF -11.5
Moneyline: TB +480/SF -620
Total: 41

Last week, the San Francisco 49ers returned from a week 9 bye to post a dominating effort in a 38-3 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The victory was very refreshing, considering the 49ers had dropped three straight games prior to the bye, which included losses to the Browns, Vikings, and Bengals. However, last week’s victory over the Jaguars displayed more of what we saw from the 49ers earlier in the season, with a dominant defensive effort matched with opportunistic play calling on the offensive side of the football. On Sunday, San Francisco will try to build off last week’s momentum when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Levi’s Stadium.

Similar to the 49ers, the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers also ended a recent losing streak in week 10. The Buccaneers had dropped four straight games to the Lions, Falcons, Bills, and Texans in recent weeks. In all of those four losses, the Buccaneers were competitive but not efficient enough on the offensive side of the football. Last week, the Buccaneers defense stepped up in a big way to hold the Tennessee Titans to just 209 total yards in a 20-6 victory. Despite being under the .500 mark at 4-5 SU on the season, the Buccaneers remain just a half-game back in the chaotic race in the NFC South. Luckily, the Buccaneers have a favorable schedule for the 2nd half of the season, but that will not be the case this weekend when they take on the San Francisco 49ers as 11.5-point underdogs!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Analysis

Despite the recent losing skid prior to the bye, the 49ers still have one of the best defenses in football, and that was the story of last week’s match-up against the Jaguars. DE Nick Bosa and the 49ers defensive front were consistently able to get pressure on QB Trevor Lawrence, which resulted in five sacks and four defensive turnovers. In all honesty, the defensive performance last week was impressive after several weeks of mediocrity, which makes this Sunday’s match-up against Tampa Bay difficult to handicap.

If the 49ers pass rush is able to get home again this week, it will create big opportunities to create turnovers and set up the offense in favorable positions. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield has always struggled under duress despite playing better than most expected this season. With that being said, the lack of a running threat from Tampa Bay concerns me the most for the Bucs. Tampa Bay’s running game is non-existent and offensively, everything relies on Mayfield to get the ball to WR Mike Evans and the rest of the Bucs receiving corps. Without any threat in the backfield, I have to imagine the 49ers will bring blitzes and different looks to create pressure, which will be the key to success.

With all things considered, the 49ers offense will still have to deliver in order to cover an 11.5-point betting spread. QB Brock Purdy has been inconsistent at times this year but is coming off one of his best performances of the season. RB Christian McCaffrey’s record-tying touchdown streak of 17 straight games ended last week. CMC is still one of the elite running backs in the NFL, but the Buccaneers’ run-defense is pretty solid. Therefore, I believe Purdy will need to perform well again this week to generate the offense needed to cover this spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Trends

• The Bucs are 6-3 ATS in the last 9 games.
• The Bucs are 1-4 SU in the last 5 games.
• The Bucs have hit the “under” in 6 of the last 7 games.
• The Bucs are just 3-6 ATS in the last 9 games against the 49ers.
• The 49ers are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 games.
• The 49ers are 16-4 SU in the last 20 games.
• The 49ers are 11-1 SU in the last 12 games at home.
• The 49ers have hit the “over” in 4 of the last 6 games against the Bucs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Prediction

From a match-up perspective, I believe both defenses have the upper hand in this match-up, especially if the Bucs can limit the big plays from McCaffrey. I don’t think there will be a lot of scoring in this match-up especially if the 49ers defense gets the pressure on Mayfield that I expect. As a result, I am going to take the under in this one.

Jay’s Pick: Take the under 41