NFL Picks: Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction ATS

Week 8 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 29, 2023 at 4:25 PM EDT

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: KC -8 / DEN +8 (Bovada)

Money Line: KC -380, DEN +290

Over/Under Total: 46

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Denver Broncos in an AFC West showdown at Mile High on Sunday. Both teams enter this with a little momentum. Denver, in the midst of a rough season, was able to beat the Packers, 19-17, on Sunday for their second win of the season. And backers of the Broncos also got their first cover of the season. Now nice and dug in at home for another one, they host the incoming Chiefs, fresh off a nice 31-17 win at Arrowhead over the Chargers. After two at home, they now take to the road in a place that still is a difficult place to play. Let’s break it down!

A Few Weeks Ago…

In one of the league’s first divisional rematches this season, we perhaps benefit from the insight of these teams having played two weeks prior. Kansas City’s 19-8 win over the Broncos in Arrowhead was a forgettable affair, with a subdued Chiefs squad poking and pecking their way through the game on offense, keeping Denver off the board until late in the game in a contest that was neither competitive nor very interesting. Three turnovers for Denver, including two Russell Wilson picks, were costly, as Wilson had a paltry 95 yards through the air. While the KC offense was a bit lackluster, Mahomes still put up 300. They got a good game from Travis Kelce, and the other side of the ball did its job.

Denver’s uneven showing that day notwithstanding, I’m not sure there’s not any promise to be extracted from that equation for potential backers of the Broncos this week. Obviously, the Chiefs could do a lot better, but to go into Arrowhead and have nothing really go right but still emerge with a halfway-respectable final score of 19-8 maybe doesn’t bode so badly when we switch the setting to Mile High and start giving Denver a little credit for the subtle about-face they’ve made in the last few weeks.

Looking at the Broncos the Right Way

Until last week, low-rating the Broncos had paid off, with Denver just getting their first cover in week 7. The combination of the letdown of Russell Wilson and Sean Payton not really working out, along with the embarrassment of some crushing losses, left Denver with plummeting public morale. But if you look at the last four weeks and put that 70-20 loss to Miami out of your mind, as hard as that is, they’ve subtly begun coming around. That doesn’t mean they’re a team on the rise or that they’re about to go on a big run. It’s just an overall heightened level of competence.

When you look at Denver overcoming a 28-7 deficit on the road to beat the Bears, followed by two losses to the Jets and that one to KC, along with the Denver “D” coming up with a late pick against Jordan Love last week to beat the Packers, you see a team with problems, but not the laughingstock they were made out to be. They’re being more competitive in their losses and won 2 of their last four. They’re now dug in for a second straight game at home. It just might be time to stop ruminating on all the well-exposed reasons the Broncos are bad and reel it in with some reflection on what they do well.

Good Spot for Denver?

It’s hard to say that a team that has seen most of their changes result in an even worse product is in good shape as they set to battle the defending Super Bowl champions. And no one remaining on the Denver roster from the last time Denver won in Arrowhead eight years ago doesn’t help make it easy to back the Broncos this week. But with Kansas City such a cemented force in this league, sitting at 6-1 with almost as good a mark ATS, is this where we see some of that midseason apathy we’ve seen from the Chiefs before? Two weeks ago, they almost effortlessly beat Denver in cruise-control mode. Could this be a spot where they’re maybe not fired from a cannon?

Take the Points

Building a storyline revolving around Denver delivering a good game probably seems faulty. They are hardly bankable while being capable of plummeting to depths that are almost unimaginable. I just think the subtle improvements they’re making on defense, along with the offense showing signs of life, combine to make this a tougher-than-it-looks spot for a Chiefs team being asked to cover a pretty big number on the road in a week where they might not have a real ax to grind. I’ll take the Broncos in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Denver Broncos plus 8 points.