NFL Picks and Predictions: Raiders vs. Bengals

Las Vegas Raiders (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)
NFL Football Week 9
Date/Time: Sunday, November 3, 2024 at 1PM EDT
Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: Fox

The Las Vegas Raiders come into Ohio for a week 9 AFC battle with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Things continued to go south for the Raiders on Sunday, falling to 2-6 on the heels of their fourth straight loss—a 27-20 loss to the Chiefs last Sunday. They now dust themselves and take to the road against another team that has found the going in 2024 to be tougher than anticipated in the 3-5 Bengals. On Sunday, Cincy fell to the Eagles, 37-17, following a patch of some hope where they had won two in a row. A team that has been a contender in this conference now faces an uncertain future at 3-5, but they could restore hope with a win this week at home. Who should we get behind on Sunday?

Can the Raiders Take Advantage?

We see a lot of issues with the Bengals at the midway point of the season. Offensively is the least of their concerns. They don’t really have the same horsepower in the running game that they once did, and there have been injury issues to overcome. In addition, whereas they used to be able to run at their own speed, they’ve now been forced to come out of character and pick up the slack for a defense that has truly become a massive concern. They might be able to fare well against teams like New England, the Giants, and the Browns, but when pitted against an offense that has its act together or anything close, they’ve been readily-exploitable, allowing over 33 points a game in their other five contests this season.

So, will this be like the games the Bengals had against those lesser teams, or will we see the Cincy “D” fold again? Based on what we’ve seen from the Raiders, you’d almost have to assume the former. They haven’t surpassed 20 points in five games. Their best offensive player was traded. It’s hard to even decipher who their starting quarterback is. Aidan O’Connell is injured, but when he’s OK, will he replace Gardner Minshew? They lost last week, but Minshew’s showing was one of the best the Raiders have seen this season at the position.

It’s just that the Raiders can’t run the ball much, are getting mostly subpar results at quarterback, and are without a real difference-maker on offense. Jakobi Meyers and rookie TE Brock Bowers are nice weapons, but when not accompanied by other positive aspects, it doesn’t tend to amount to much. For this matchup, it creates a real firepower disparity, with Cincinnati showing massive edges at every facet of this offense with the exception of tight end. For all of Cincinnati’s overall issues, Joe Burrow is still airing it out, Chase and Higgins are still top-end receivers, and the Raiders’ defense has shown it can sink to very low depths in a given week. Standing out amongst the lot is their 36-point allowance to Carolina while also giving up 34 to Denver and 32 to Pittsburgh. These teams are not known as offensive juggernauts, and against the Raiders, that’s just what they were. Why wouldn’t Cincinnati at home be able to do something close to that?

Drawbacks for a Bengals Pick

Just fundamentally, who’s to say someone’s wrong for not wanting to lay more than a touchdown on a team with a defense like this? Granted, there has been a wide range of form from this Cincinnati defense based on who they’re playing. And fair enough, the Raiders aren’t the Ravens, the Commanders, or the Eagles in what they can be counted on offensively. Not exceeding 20 points in five games speaks to that. But it still seems like a decent enough week for the Raiders to start making strides offensively. We’ve seen Minshew put forth some big performances in this league before, so what if the Bengals can’t keep this Vegas offense under wraps?

And let’s face it, even the Cincy offense isn’t as surefire as it once was, with several instances already this season where they fall flat, scoring ten against New England, 17 against the Giants, just 21 against the Browns, and 17 last week again versus Philly. Again, this is all in the context of needing to cover a larger number. It’s one thing to have a shaky “D” if the offense is taking care of business. You’d suspect they’d be closer to good than bad this week at home against this defense, but nothing with the Bengals is as automatic as it has been for them in recent years. And even a Raiders’ offense that has been laboring is not a sure thing for this Bengals’ defense.

Take the Points

At some point, you have to acknowledge what you see. And sure, Cincy could find another gear and probably will at some point. We’ve seen them do well against bad teams like the Raiders. In the end, laying more than a TD on 3-5 teams unless it’s a very specialized spot just seems counterintuitive on some levels. I suspect the Raiders can put up enough points to keep this in the ballpark, as they get the cover in Cincinnati on Sunday.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Las Vegas Raiders plus 7.5 points.