NFL Game Predictions and Analysis | Week 9
Two NFL Recommended Bets
Detroit at Green Bay
Indianapolis at Minnesota
Lions at Packers
Record comparisons:
Det 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS
GB 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
Slight edge Detroit SU, big edge ATS
ATS Hm/Rd
Det 3-0 Rd
GB 2-2 Hm
Edge again to Detroit
PPG offense:
Det 30.3
GB 26.5
Edge, again, Detroit
PPG defense:
Det 20
GB 20.4
No edge
Key Personnel Issue:
Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love suffered a groin strain that knocked him out of last week’s game against the Jaguars. He didn’t practice Wednesday and was limited on Thursday. It’s likely he’ll start, but how much will his injury affect his play?
If Love can’t go, or he starts, but the injury limits his ability to be effective, backup QB Malik Willis comes in.
Willis started in place of an injured Love in two games this season.
The Packers won both games, but the competition was below average (Tennessee, 1-6, and Indianapolis, 4-4.) Both of those teams are AFC. The NFC is 22-13 SU against the seemingly weaker AFC this season.
Detroit, a 6-1 NFC opponent who sits in first place in the Packers division, is a much tougher opponent.
Even if Love starts, the Lions have a big edge in SOS (Strength of Schedule.)
Massey ratings have GB listed as the 24th-ranked schedule out of 32 teams. Detroit has faced the 10th toughest schedule.
Again, big edge Detroit.
And aside from all of the stats above that say the edge goes to Detroit, I have a few additional stats from my own unique handicapping methods that say, “Take the Lions.”
One of my two handicapping systems for picking teams the books have incorrectly made the Fav, WF2, says Green Bay should be the Hm Fav in this game.
The record for this play is 10-21, a 67% Fade.
Green Bay was in this same spot earlier this year, and they won, but countering that, WF2 said Detroit should not have been the Fav in two games, and the Lions won both.
All these factors tell me to ride with Detroit on Sunday.
Indianapolis at Minnesota
Records on totals:
Ind: Only three of the Colts’ eight games have gone Over
Minn: Only three of the Colts’ seven games have gone Over
The total on this game opened at 46.
Only three of the Colt’s eight games have gone over this number.
Only three of the Viking’s seven games have gone over this number.
NONE of those stats favor my pick on the Over. So why am I on it?
Three reasons:
- 1 – recent play
- 2 – stats from my own unique handicapping systems
- and most importantly
- 3 – the benching of Colts QB Anthony Richardson
1 – Recent play: While only three of Minnesota’s seven games have surpassed the total of 46′ on this game, three of their last four games have hit 50 or more points, two of them saw 60 or more.
2 – My stats: I’m using two different systems for handicapping totals. Ind/Min qualifies as an HC (Hot/Cold) trend reversal play. This is a play where both team’s recent form shows trends for a total in one direction, and I think that reversion toward the mean is going to send the trend back in the other direction.
Both the Colts and Vikings register the necessary number of qualifiers and correct qualifiers that show them trending to the Under, making the Over the trend reversal play.
In college, this play has a 6-11 record on Unders (I used this system for my play this week in the TCU/Baylor game), but in the NFL, the record is 6-2, a 75% play-ON spot.
And for a subcategory, when my other method for choosing totals agrees and says take the Over on a H/C play, the record is 2-0.
That’s a small data sample of 10 games (6-2 and 2-0), but like I always say, I stick with what works until it stops working.
And this play has been working thus far.
3- QB Richardson has been benched:
The Colts have finally made the decision to put their star quarterback and top draft pick (FOURTH overall last year) on the bench.
The decision was both tough and easy at the same time. It was tough because it’s a public admission that they screwed the pooch in the draft, taking Richardson at number four. But it was an easy decision to make because HE’S TERRIBLE.
He’s only thrown four TDs this season against seven INTs.
He’s coming off a 10 of 32 for 170 yards performance against the Texans.
Making matters worse, Richardson took himself out of that game (a game against their division rivals who were one game ahead of them in the standings) because, as he admitted later, “I was tired.”
How do you think THAT went over with his teammates and the organization?
All of this spells good news for my play on the Over because it means Joe Flacco will be under center.
2024’s Comeback Player of the Year award winner has started three games this season.
He relieved an injured Richardson vs. Pittsburgh and went 16 for 26, 168 yards, and two TDs.
He followed that up with 33 of 44 for 359 yards and three TD’sTDs vs. Jacksonville and 22 of 38 for 189 yards and two TDs vs. Tennessee.
With Flacco at QB, the Colts are averaging 24.6 PPG. If they get even close to that number this week against Minnesota, the game will sail over. And facing a Vikings pass defense that’s ranked 30 out of 32 teams, surrendering 263 yards per game, I like Flacco to get me 20+. That, combined with a Vikings offense putting up an average of 27 points per game, should be enough to cover the total on this one.
When to Buy Recommendations
GB opened as -1 Favs, but the line has flip-flopped; Detroit is now the Fav, -2′ with added juice or -3 with plus juice. Here’s my wagering strategy for this game. The line is not going to get any worse than Detroit -3.
If anything, when/if Love is announced as the starting QB, money will come in on Green Bay. I think if I wait for that to happen, I have a good chance at getting the -2′ at even money and not paying the extra juice. Worst case, I’ll get the -3.
Waiting to buy this one, I’ll post the number I get in the forum.
Ind/Min total opened at 45′.
It’s gone up to 46′, and I don’t expect it to come back down, so I bought this one today (Friday morning.)
Today’s plays:
Detroit (wait to buy)
Ind/Min Ov 46′
