NFL Free Picks: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Week 17

New England Patriots (4-11 SU, 5-10 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (9-6, 6-8-1), 12/31/23
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 31
Where: Highmark Stadium
TV: CBS

Betting odds

Point spread: NE +11.5/Buff -11.5
Money line: NE +490/Buff -670
Total: 40.5

The 9-6 Buffalo Bills continue their quest for a playoff berth when they host the 4-11 Patriots on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park. Buffalo seemed in trouble a few weeks ago, but three straight wins put them in a good spot in the AFC playoff race.

New England, on the other hand, is reduced to playing spoiler.

Can the Bills cover double-digits? Or can the Patriots, as they’ve done several times already this season, keep this one close?

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 17 NFL betting market opened Buffalo at -12 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 40.5. Early betting action shaved that line to 11.5.

Patriots Betting Preview

New England, playing without the pressures of a playoff race, is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS its last three times out after winning at Denver last Sunday 26-23. The Patriots, as seven-point dogs, led 23-7 in the fourth quarter. New England then let the Broncos tie it at 23-23 with three minutes left but drove 43 yards late to a long game-winning field goal.

The Patriots out-gained Denver 289-276. So New England, thanks mainly to its defense, has actually out-gained five of its last six opponents.

Two weeks ago, the Patriots got out-played by Kansas City, losing 27-17 but covering at +10.5. Three weeks ago, New England won at Pittsburgh 21-18. Before that, the Patriots lost five in a row, but the last four came by one score.

We bet New England last week because we thought the defense would travel, and with Zappe at QB, they could score 21 points. As it turned out, the offense scored 19 points, and special teams scored seven. And that was plenty enough for the money.

At 4-11 overall, the Patriots are actually playing some decent ball as of late.

Bills Betting Preview

Meanwhile Buffalo is 4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS its last five times out after winning at the Chargers last Saturday 24-22. But it wasn’t easy. The Bills, favored by 13 points over a team playing without its starting quarterback and top receiver, led 21-13 through three quarters. Buffalo then fell behind 22-21 with five minutes left but drove 64 yards to a game-winning field goal.

However, the Bills never really threatened to cover that spread.

Buffalo out-gained Los Angeles 335-273. But three Bills turnovers helped keep that game close.

Buffalo has out-gained three of its last four opponents and out-rushed seven of its last eight foes.

Two weeks ago, the Bills dominated Dallas 31-10. Three weeks ago, Buffalo out-played Kansas City and won 20-17.

At 9-6 overall, the Bills can clinch a playoff berth this week with a win and some help from elsewhere. Buffalo also holds out some hope of winning the AFC East; if the Bills win Sunday and Miami loses at Baltimore, the Week 18 Buffalo-Miami game would decide the division title.

On the injury front, New England’s leading rusher, Stevenson, missed recent action with a bad ankle and is questionable for Sunday. The Patriots haven’t rushed for more than 81 yards in a game since he got hurt.

Common Opponents

These teams have played ten common opponents this season: members of the AFC East and West and NFC East. Buffalo played those foes to 8-3 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, New England to 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS.

Patriots-Bills Recent History

Buffalo beat New England six out of seven meetings through last season but the Patriots took the first meeting between the teams this season back in October 29-25.

New England led that game 22-10 in the fourth quarter, fell behind 25-22 with two minutes left, but drove 75 yards to a game-winning touchdown.

That game played over a total of 41 as the teams combined for four 4th-quarter TDs.

NFL Betting Trends

New England is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS with Bailey Zappe as the starter at QB.

Double-digit favorites are 18-6 SU and 12-12 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

The Unders are 9-6 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 36 total points.

The Unders are 10-5 in Bills games, which are averaging 45 points.

The Overs played 10-6 in the NFL last week, but on the season, the Unders are 131-109.

The Overs are 4-1 over the last five meetings between these teams.

Free NFL Betting Pick

New England is playing better ball as of late, but it doesn’t have a running game. And going one-dimensional against this Buffalo defense ain’t a great idea. Also, coming off a big effort last week in Denver, we consider the Patriots good candidates for a letdown this week. Meanwhile, Buffalo actually gave a mediocre performance last week against the Chargers, even though it won the game. We expect a sharper performance on Sunday. Also, the Bills have QB Allen and a running game with Cook. And Buffalo owns a much better performance record against common opponents. The Bills won’t allow themselves to get swept by New England. We’re giving the points with Buffalo on Sunday.