NFL Football Trends

Each week during the NFL football season we’ll post trends that SOUND like they make a game look like it’s a winner. We actually fade (go against) these trends though because it’s our opinion that what happened in the past is no indication of what will happen in the future and too much weight is put into these “trends”.

There’s an old saying “let the trend be your friend” but it’s B.S. How can you put much weight into something that includes info from years, past, many times from many years past when different players and coaches were around? Nonetheless, we’ll sift through it all and post any decent angles and situational stats we can find relative to past trends. Look for these trends to be posted by late Friday afternoon each week during the Pro football season. Enjoy!

2016-2017 Trend Records ATS 12-9-2 +2.10 Units

Super Bowl:
1. The Philadelphia Eagles are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. (Take NE -4.5)(pending)

NFC Championship: (1/21)
1. The Philadelphia Eagles are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. NFC. (Take Min -3)(lost 7-38)

Divisional Playoffs: (1/13 through 1/14)
1. The New Orleans Saints are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games. (Take Min -5)(pushed 29-24)

Wildcard Weekend: (1/6 through 1/7)
1. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. (Take Jax -8.5 (lost 10-3)

Week 17: (12/31)
1. The Miami Dolphins are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in December. (Take Mia +2.5)(lost 16-22)
2. The Denver Broncos are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC West. (Take Den -4.5)(lost 24-27)

Week 16: (12/23 through 12/25) The Denver Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. (Take Den +3)(lost 11-27)

Week 15: (12/14 through 12/18)
1. The Cincinnati Bengals are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games in December. (Lay the -10.5 with Min)(winner 34-7)

Week 14:
1. Under is 20-8 in the Houston Texans last 28 games in December. (Take OVER 45.5)(lost 26-16)
2. The NE Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. (Take Mia +10.5)(won 27-20)

Week 13: (11/30 through 12/4)
1. The Kansas City Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. (Take NYJ +3)(winner 38-31)
2. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in December. (Take Cinci +4.5)(pending)

Week 12: Passed.

Week 11: (11/16 through 11/20)
1. The Detroit Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in November. (Take Det +3)(won 27-24)

Week 10: (11/9 through 11/13) Passed.

Week 9 (11/2 through 11/6)
1. The Tennessee Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. (Take Balt +3.5)(won 20-23)

Week 8: (10/26 through 10/30)
1. The Houston Texans are 5-1 ATS after their last 6 bye weeks. (Take Sea -6.5)(lost 41-38).

Week 7: (10/19 through 10/23)
1. The Los Angeles Chargers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. (Take the Chargers +1)(winner 21-0).

Week 6: (10/12 through 10/16)
1. The Chicago Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. (Take Chi +6.5)(won 27-24)
2. The LA Rams are 28-58-1 in their last 87 road games against a team with a winning home record. (Take the Rams +2.5)(won 27-17)

Week 5: (10/5 through 10/9)
1. The Buffalo Bills are 4-0 ATS over their last 4 games. (Take Cinci -3)(won 20-16)
2. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 Colts games. (Take OVER 44.5)(winner 23-26)

Week 4: Passed.

Week 3: (9/21 through 9/25) The KC Chiefs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games. (Take LAC +3)(lost 10-24).

Week 2: (9/14 through 9/18)
1. The Chicago Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in September. (Take Chi +6.5 (lost 7-29)

Week 1: (9/7 through 9/11)
1. The Atlanta Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. (Bet Chi +6)(pushed 17-23)
2. The Cleveland Browns are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. (Take Cle +9)(won 18-21)
3. The N.O. Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. (Take Min -3)(won 29-19).

Previous Season’s

2016-2017 Trend Records ATS 17-16-3 +0.40 Units

Super Bowl: Passing.

Conference Championships: (1/22)
1. The Pitt Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. (Take NE -6)(2.2 units to win 2 units)(won 36-17)

Divisional Playoffs (1/14 through 1/15)
1. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. (Take KC -1.5)(lost 16-18)

Wildcard Weekend: (1/7 through 1/8)
1. The New York Giants are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 playoff road games. (Take GB -4.5)(won 38-13)

Week 17: (1/1)
1. The Dallas Cowboys are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games on grass. (Take Phil -5.5 (won 27-13)
2. The Det Lions are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. NFC North.
(Take Det +3)(lost 24-31)

Week 16: (12/22 through 12/26)
1. The Atlanta Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. (Take Car +3)(lost 16-33)
2. The Washington Redskins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. (Take Chi +3)(lost 21-41)
3. The SD Chargers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. (Take Cleve +4)(won 20-17)
4. The Detroit Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games. (Take Dal -6.5)(won 42-21)

Week 15: (12/15 through 12/19)
1. The Detroit Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf. (Take NYG -4.5)(won 17-6)
2. The TB Buccaneers are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games on fieldturf. (Take Dal -7)(lost 26-20)

Week 14: (12/8 through 12/12) The Atlanta Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. (Take the Rams +5.5)(lost big).

Week 13: (12/1 through 12/5)
1. The Denver Broncos are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss. (Take Jags +3.5)(lost 10-20).

Week 12: (11/24 through 11/28)
1. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. (Take Indy +8.5)(lost 7-28)
2. The Carolina Panthers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. (Take Carolina +3)(pushed).
3. The Tennessee Over is 10-1-1 in Titans last 12 games on grass.
(Take UNDER 42)(lost 27-21)
4. The New Orleans Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 12. (Take N.O. -8.5)(won 49-21)

Week 11: (11/17 through 11/21)
1. The Cleveland Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in November. (Bet the Browns at +8.5)(lost 9-24)
2. The GB Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in November. (Take Wash -3)(won 42-24)

Week 10: (11/10 through 11/13)
1. The Houston Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC South. (Take Jax -2.5)(lost 21-24)
2. The GB Packers are 40-18-3 ATS in their last 61 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. (Take Tenn +2.5)(won 47-25)

Week 9: (11/3 through 11/7)
1. The Baltimore Ravens are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. (Take Balt -1)(won 21-14)
2. The NY Giants are 16-35-3 ATS in their last 54 games in November. (Take the GMen at -3)(won 28-23)
3. The Carolina Panthers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games on grass. (Take the Rams +3)(pushed 10-13)

Week 8 NFL Trend Fades: (10/27 through 10/31)
1. The Cleveland Browns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games (Take the Browns at +2)(lost 28-31)
2. The KC Chiefs are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 8. (Take Indy +3)(lost 14-30).

Week 7 (10/20 through 10/24)
1. The MiamiDolphins are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 vs. AFC. (Take the Phins +3 (1/2 pt buy)(-135)(won 28-25)

Week 6 (10/13 through 10/17)
1. The GB Packers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games in October. (Take Dal +4.5 (won 30-16)
2. The Detroit Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 6. (Take LAR +3)(pushed)

Week 5 NFL Trend Fades:
1. The Indianapolis Colts are 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 home games. (Take Chi +4.5)(lost 23-29)

Week 4: (9/29 through 10/3)
1. The Dallas Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on grass (Take SF +2.5)(lost 17-24).

Week 3 NFL Trend Plays: (9/22 through 9/26)
1. The Detroit Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. (Take GB -7)(pushed 34-27)
2. The LA Rams are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games in September. (Take LA +6)(won 37-32)
3. The Atlanta Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC. (Take ATL +2.5)(won 45-32)

Week 2 NFL Trend Fades:
1. The Cleveland Browns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
(Take Clev +5)(pushed 25-20)
2. The Tennessee Titans are 15-36-4 ATS in their last 55 games overall. (Take Tenn +6)(won 16-15)

Week 1 Trend Fades:
1. The TB Buccaneers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1. (Take TB +2.5)(won 31-24)

2015-2016 Trend Records ATS 16-14-2 -0.40 Units

Wildcard Weekend Trend Plays: (1/9 through 1/10)
1. The KC Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. (Take Hou +3)
2. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. (Take Cinci +3)(pending)

Week 17: (1/3)
1. The Dallas Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf.
(Take Dallas -4)(lost 23-34)

Week 16: (12/24 through 12/28)
1. The Carolina Panthers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss. (Take Atl +7)(won 20-13).

Week 15: (12/17 through 12/21)
1. The Baltimore Ravens are 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. (Take Balt +6.5)(lost)
2. The Detroit Lions are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
(Take Det +2.5)(win)

Week 14: (12/10 through 12/14)
1. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 home games. (Take TB -4.5)(loss).

Week 13: (12/3 through 12/7) We’re passing on trend plays this week.

Week 12: (11/26 through 11/30)
1. The Over is 8-0 in the Philadelphia Eagles last 8 games in Week 12. (Take UNDER 46)(loss)
2. The Tennessee Titans are 19-39-4 ATS in their last 62 games overall. (Take Ten +1)(loss)
3. The Buffalo Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
(Take KC -5)(win).

Week 11: (11/19 through 11/23)
1. The GB Packers are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 vs. NFC North. (Take Min -1)(loss)
2. The Houston Texans are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win. (Take Hou +3)(win)

Week 10 (11/12 through 11/16)
1. The Carolina Panthers are 20-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. (Take Ten +4)(loss)
2. The Washington Redskins are 16-39-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
(Take Wash -1)(win)
3. The Baltimore Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
(Take Jax +4.5)(win).

Week 9: (11/5 through 11/9)
1. The GB Packers are 42-19-1 ATS in their last 62 games on grass. (Take Car +2.5)(win)
2. The San Diego Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
(Take Chi +4.5)(win)

Week 8: (10/29 through 11/2)
1. The Seattle Seahawks are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games on fieldturf. (Take Dal +4.5)(win)
2. The Minnesota Vikings are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall. (Take Chi +1)(loss).

Week 7: (10/22 through 10/26) Passing on trend plays this week.

Week 6: (10/15 through 10/19)
1. The Over is 23-11 in Packers last 34 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. (Take UNDER 50.5)(win)
2. The New York Giants are 30-14-2 ATS in their last 46 games in October. (Take Philly -5.5)(win)

Week 5: (10/8 through 10/12)
1. The Philadelphia Eagles are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. (Take the Eagles -6)(win)
2. The Seattle Seahawks are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games on fieldturf. (Take Cinci -3)(push)
3. The Tennessee Titans are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall. (Take Tenn. +1)(push).

Week 4: (10/1 through 10/5)
1. The Dallas Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
(Take N.O. -3)(win)
2. The San Diego Chargers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. (Take Clev +7)(win)

Week 3: (9/24 through 9/28) The UNDER is 15-5 in the last 20 meetings between Ind/Ten. Take OVER 46 (win)
2. The Dallas Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games (Take Dal +1.5)(loss)

Week 2: (9/17 through 9/21)
1. The OVER is 31-11 in Broncos last 42 vs. a team with a winning record. (Take UNDER 42)(loss)
2. The GB Packers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 home games.
(Take Sea +3)(loss)
3. The NE Patriots are 72-33-2 ATS in their last 107 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
(Take Buf at a pick’em)(loss)

Week 1: (9/10 through 9/14)
1. The Houston Texans are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games. (Take Hou -1)(loss)
2. The Seattle Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September. (Take STL +4)(win)
3. The Cincinnati Bengals are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September. (Take Oak +3)(loss)

2014-2015 Trend Records ATS 30-19-0 +9.10 Units

Conference Championships: (1/19) The Green Bay Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. (Take Sea at -7.5)(loss)

Divisional Playoffs: (1/10 through 1/11)
1. The Carolina Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. (Take Sea -11)(win)

Wildcard Weekend: 1/3 through 1/4)
1. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in January. (Take Bal +3)(win)
2. The Indianapolis Colts are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. (Take Cinci +3.5 (loss)

Week 17: (12/28)
1. The Atlanta Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC South. (Take CAR +3.5)(win)

Week 16: (12/18 through 12/22)
1. Passing this week.

Week 15: (12/11 through 12/15)
1. The Oakland Raiders are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games in December. (Take Oak +10)(loss)
2. The Miami Dolphins are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. (Take NE -7.5)(win).

Week 14: (12/4 through 12/8)
1. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. (Take Cinci -3 (loss)
2. The Washington edskins are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. (Take Wash +3)(win)

Week 13: (11/27 through 12/1)
1. The Denver Broncos are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC West. (Take KC +1)(loss)

Week 12: (11/20 through 11/24)
1. The Oakland Raiders are 27-55-1 ATS in their last 83 home games. (Take Oak +7.5)(win)
2. We just have the one play this week.

Week 11: (11/13 through 11/17)
1. The Seattle Seahawks are 15-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. (Take KC -1.5)(win)
2. The Minnesota Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. (Take Min +2.5)(loss)
3. The Detroit Lions are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games in November. (Take Det at a pick’em)(loss)
4. The Tennessee Titans are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall. (Take Ten +7 on a half point buy at -120 odds)(win)

Week 10: (11/6 through 11/10)
1. The Cleveland Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. (Take Cin -6.5)(loss)
2. The San Francisco 49ers are 25-9-3 ATS in their last 37 games following a ATS loss. (Take N.O. -5)(loss)
3. The New York Jets are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. (Take NYJ +4.5)(win)

Week 9: (10/30 through 11/3)
1. The Houston Texans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win. (Take Houston +1.5)(loss)
2. The San Diego Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. (Take Mia -2.5)(win)
3. The Minnesota Vikings are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win. (Take Min at a pick’em)(win).

Week 8: (10/23 through 10/27)
1. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 home games. (Take TB -2.5)(loss)
2. The Washington Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games. (Take Wash +10)(win)

Week 7 NFL Trend Plays: (10/16 through 10/20)
1. Jaguars are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games. (Take Jax +5.5)(win)
2. The Carolina Panthers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC. (Take GB -6.5)(win)
3. The Indianapolis Colts are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games. (Bet Cinci +3)(loss)

Week 6: (10/9 through 10/13)
1. The Jags are 6-19-1 against the spread in their L26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. (Take Jax +4.5) (win)
2. The Bucs are 1-5-1 against the spread in their L7 home games versus a team with a winning road record. (Take Tampa Bay +3.5)(loss)
3. The Pats are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games on turf. (Take Buffalo +3 -125)(loss)

Week 5: (10/2 through 10/6)
1. The Minnesota Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC. (Take GB -8)(win)
2. The St. Louis Rams are 17-37 ATS in their last 54 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. (Take STL +7)(win)
3. The Cleveland Browns are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. (Take Ten -1.5)(loss)
4. The Detroit Lions are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in October. (Take Buf +6.5)(win)
5. The Seattle Seahawks are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games in October. (Take Sea -7)(win)

Week 4: (9/25 through 9/29)
1. The Washington Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. (Take NYG +3.5)(win)
2. The Dallas Cowboys are 7-20 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. (Take DAL +3)(win)

Week 3: (9/18 through 9/22)
1. The Atlanta Falcons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. (Take TB +6.5)(loss)
2. The Washington Redskins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. (Take Wash +6)(win)
3. The Houston Texans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. (Take NYG -2)(win)
4. The Miami Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. (Take KC +3.5)(win)
5. The Chicago Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Monday games (Take NYJ -2)(loss).

Week 2: (9/11 through 9/15)
1. The Baltimore Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. (Take Balt -2.5)(win)
2. The New England Patriots are 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games following a S.U. loss. (Take Min +5.5)(loss)
3. The Detroit Lions are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. (Take CAR -2.5)(win)
4. The Green Bay Packers are 20-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. (Take NYJ +7.5)(win)
5. The Indianapolis Colts are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. (Take Phil +3)(win).

Week 1: (9/4 through 9/8)
1. The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. (Take Sea -5.5)(win)
2. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. (Take Jax +10.5)(loss)
3. The Buffalo Bills are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. (Take Buf +7)(win)