NFL Betting Pick, Odds, and Analysis for Detroit at Houston

Last week, I had an easy winner with the Detroit Lions -2′. They went up 7-3 at the beginning of the second quarter and never looked back, winning by 10 points, covering by a TD and a hook. And as I always say, I like to stick with what works, ESPECIALLY when I have the same team in the same spot that won for me last week.

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans
Record comparisons:
Det 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS
Hou 6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS
Edge to Detroit SU and ATS.

ATS Hm/Rd:
Det (Rd) 4-0, Hou (Hm) 1-3-1
Edge to Detroit again.

I have a Detroit team with a huge edge over SU and ATS, and there’s no drop-off in the numbers when they’re on the road.
What’s not to like?

PPG offense:
Det 33.4, Hou 22.3, edge Det

PPG defense:
Det 19, Hou 23, edge Det

I have an offense scoring 11 more PPG and a defense holding teams to 4 points fewer per game.
Again – what’s not to like?

And here’s the best part, from my personal, unique handicapping system, WF2:
WF2 says Houston should be the Fav.
WF2’s record on home teams was 10-21 going into last Sunday.
Coming into this week, it’s 10-24, a 70% Fade, after losses with Cleveland, Green Bay, and Seattle (all three teams were used for PLAY AGAINST picks in my articles last week.)
A few other games on Sunday also qualify for this same spot. I’ll share them in the PredictEm forum section in case anyone is looking for angles on those games.

In addition to all the numbers above, I have the NFC/AFC angle in my favor, too.
The NFC is 24-14 SU against the AFC and 21-13 ATS.
That’s a 63% percent play on the money line if you’re into such things, or a 61% play ATS.
And anything over 58% is good enough for me.

The only concern I have on this one is that the Lions have covered eight straight games. That means reversion toward the mean is lurking in the background, waiting to stop the fun. And that’s why I’m doing something I rarely do – I’m buying the hook off this one.

Key personnel issues:
Detroit lost Hutch in the Dallas game on 10/13 but the next man up strategy is working for them as the defensive PPG is at 16.5 since losing their star defensive end, which is 3 points fewer than when he was in.
Houston lost their star wide receiver Stefon Diggs two games back, and with their other star receiver Nico Collins also out with injuries they managed to score just 13 points against the lowly Jets in their last game.

With both receivers out, Detroit’s defense can put their best man on Tank Dell. With the passing game limited by injuries, I expect Houston to go heavy on the run game this week with Joe Mixon, try to use as much clock as they can, and keep the explosive Detroit offense off the field. This works in my favor, too, as Detroit has the number seven ranked defense against the run, allowing just 106 per game.

After winning five of the first six games, the Texans have now lost two of their last three. And facing an NFC North opponent like they are this week, they have a lone win vs. a mediocre Chicago team at 4-4 SU, but losses to the two teams that have winning records, Minnesota at 6-2 SU (a 34-7 loss) and Green Bay at 6-3 (24-22 loss.)

All things considered – WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE??!!

Look for another miserable performance from Houston this week, just like their last game against the Jets.

When to Buy Recommendation

Detroit opened at -3′, and the line hasn’t moved. Based on recent play and injuries, I don’t expect any Houston money to come in, if anything this one goes to -4, so I’m buying it now before the price to get the game to -3 goes higher.

My play:
Detroit -3, -130

Recap: 3-1
Record: 9-8.5
Review:
From last week’s article:
“I’m taking the Chargers as the natural order of things is restored with Winston throwing INTs and the 2-6 Browns losing once again.”

Winston threw not one, not two, but THREE interceptions, and I got the W with the LA Chargers using my WF2 system.
Det and Sea also won, also coming from my WF2 system. I took an L with the Ind/Min Over 46′ play.

I’m out of the red, have a small profit now. And nine more weeks to build on it.