NFL Betting: 49ers vs. Steelers Week 1 Pick ATS

San Francisco 49ers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

Week 1 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 1PM EDT

Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

TV: Fox

Point Spread: SF -2.5/PIT +2.5 (Save BIG money by betting at -105 instead of -110!)

Over/Under Total: 40.5

The San Francisco 49ers come to Acrisure Stadium on Sunday for a week one showdown with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams look to kick their 2023 regular season into gear in what should be an interesting matchup between two traditional powers of their respective conferences. The Niners are looking for another big year after getting to the NFC title game last year. Pittsburgh is in more of a rebuilding mode, but they have still maintained respectable with a 9-8 record in 2022 and have never slipped under .500 despite their uncharacteristic run of missing the postseason three of the last five seasons. Can the Niners thrive out of the conference in a bit of a foreign locale for them? Or will the Steelers serve notice that they’re ready to become a factor again?

Getting a Lay of the Land

With the Niners, you have a fortified football-machine. Year after year, they have overcome the things that fold most franchises—inordinate amounts of injuries, personnel issues, draft busts, etc. They just always find answers, and last year, it was the last pick of the draft in Brock Purdy stepping up as a quality starter. The injuries haven’t derailed them; they are building up incredible depth that makes them one of the more injury-proof teams in the league. Last year’s midseason acquisition of Christian McCaffrey gives them another dependable star on offense to go along with the big production Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk can provide. They’re a well-coached team that is well-rounded on both sides of the ball. The aforementioned depth really resonates on the defensive side of the ball, where some good health and full seasons from studs like Bosa (questionable), Kinlaw, and Warner could make them an even bigger force.

A lot of this applies to the Steelers, albeit on a reduced level. They’re a well-coached squad that generally gets a lot out of what they have. There is some promising youth on this team, and even if you’re not a believer of Kenny Pickett at quarterback, you’d admit the youth movement has resonated on offense, where they have some good backs like Najee Harris, talented receivers like George Pickens, and Diontae Johnson, and a rising tight end in Pat Freiermuth. With stars on defense like TJ Watt, Cameron Heyward, and Minkah Fitzpatrick, they have a core of difference-makers on what could be a stout and playmaking defense.

Naturally, the Steelers need a little boost. There is some promise just from the fact that last year really should have been bad for the Steelers, and they still wrung out a 9-8 mark. There were some clutch moments from Pickett, but he really didn’t play well. The offense would sometimes go into swoons, often suffering behind that offensive line that faces more questions this season. Injuries cost them on the defensive side of the ball. Other than Freiermuth, none of their young offensive talent really took that step forward you’d like to see. But backers of the 49ers should be alert that this is a tough place to play against a team with an understated element of competence that reserves the right to improve. On the surface, this might seem like a little more of a breeze than it might end up being.

What to Expect

The Steelers have a certain level of resourcefulness, overcoming stretches of bad play on offense by hanging in there, pecking and prodding, and oftentimes ending up in a good spot by the end of the game. With all that talent on defense, there are going to be spots against perceived high-powered offenses where they are going to perform better than expected. It’s not like the 49ers’ offensive formula is foolproof. Purdy still has to show he can follow up on the promise shown in his rookie season coming off an injury. And he will be on the road against a talented defensive roster that can be very disruptive. With Watt leading the way, they really get after the quarterback, along with a secondary that can really make a QB pay for errant throws. With the Steelers, even the somewhat uninspiring team we’ve seen in recent years, they are often better than people think.

I’m not sure any prospective issues the Niners offense figures to have with a good home Pittsburgh defense doesn’t apply even more to the other side of the equation. They added Javon Hargrave on a line that attacks and is stout. Their linebackers, led by Fred Warner, are an impactful group, and the secondary is good. People are looking to Pickett to see if he can take on the look of a quality NFL starter this season, and game one might not be the greatest time to do an assessment of what might be the best defense in football. And usually, injuries take their toll with this unit throughout the season, so seeing a week one SF defense might be a tough ask of a team that didn’t put up a ton of points last season.

Take the Points

The Niners are a little scary in this context, but it is a bit of a funky locale for them, taking on a defense that I feel will put a crimp in their offensive success. Coming off the knee injury, Purdy is likely going to be used a bit conservatively against this damaging and attacking defense. With the 49ers running the ball and going short, it’s going to create a smaller field where I see the Steelers’ defense being a compelling aspect of this game. I don’t love being on the wrong side of that field goal as of press time, though it could creep up. I just see a really close game where having a little cushion won’t hurt. I’ll take the Steelers.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers plus 2.5 points.

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