NFL 2023 MVP Top Contenders & Predictions

NFL 2023 MVP Predictions and Bets

The NFL Most Valuable Player award is really the crown jewel of individual honors in pro football. A review of past winners shows a slew of Hall of Fame players, and even those former MVPs who couldn’t sustain the excellence can still look back and say they were the best for a year. For bettors, it’s a long ride to take on a bet, but you get a lot of mileage off this wager as you follow the player(s) you choose with a stake in every game they play. For those who like action, this packs a lot of it for a singular bet.

In many ways, this wager represents the newer sensibilities in NFL football. It has become a very QB-centric league. Quarterbacks accept a lot of responsibility for the overall fortunes of their teams. As a result, this award has become almost a de-facto Best Quarterback award. From the ’90s to the mid-2000s, top running backs were as common a choice as a top QB, but Adrian Peterson in 2012 was the last non-quarterback to win this. And it doesn’t mean that a 2000-yard season from a RB or WR won’t be enough, but let’s just say it takes less for a quarterback to get named MVP at this point in history than any other position.

Last season, Patrick Mahomes won his second MVP, in keeping with the ongoing theme of this award going to players who are on good teams. After all, it’s the Most Valuable Player award, meaning in order for you to be the most valuable, there needs to be good results for the team. It’s not really a simple measure of excellence. Otherwise, players with huge stats on bad teams would win this, which they never really do. Considering that this is an award where people vote, what really stands out in people’s minds is the element of change. So if a player blossoms and takes a previously-struggling team along with him, it stands out more than just a great player on a great team having another big year. You can also look for players on a new team where if that team gets a big upgrade, it looks really good for that player. But like we saw last season, established stars on good teams are still top candidates, as well. Let’s break it down! (All odds by Bovada)

Best Bets to Win the NFL 2023/24 MVP

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+750): I think the stage sets up well for a big season for Allen. A lot of people are looking at KC and Cincy, with other up-and-coming teams getting attention in the AFC. After a few ragged seasons in a row by Allen’s standards, I’d look for him to clean things up a bit this season, and if Buffalo can reinject themselves into the upper elite, it’s going to be hard to look back and not give Allen heaps of credit. It’s not like they’re that far off. A few tweaks, along with several acquisitions paying off, should have Buffalo in the thick of it, with Allen getting a real chance to shine in an MVP kind of way.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (+900): This could be a misnomer, but it always seems the Chargers do better when people aren’t really expecting them to thrive. And sure, there are enough NFL observers who recognize the Bolts as a team that could deliver this season, but the attention appears to be on other teams in a deep conference. If Herbert can step it up a tick and benefit from the addition of another good receiver in rookie Quentin Johnston while getting a boost from a defense whose stars remain healthy, it’s only a matter of time before this formula comes together for a roster with a lot of talent. A big year for both the Chargers and Herbert would put him right in the thick of this.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (+1500): We saw a lot of things coming together for Lawrence and this Jacksonville offense in 2022, especially over the second half of last season. This was when we saw Lawrence really start to look the part, taking advantage of a revamped receiver crew that now brings back previously-suspended Calvin Ridley. With Lawrence’s talent, his second-half performance of last season, and Jacksonville’s overall trajectory, it might be time to start backing a guy you have to figure will win a couple of these by the time it’s all said and done.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (+1800): Again, voters can be sentimental. Some of the troubling images from last season could only enhance his standing this season if he stays healthy and helps put something together nice for the ‘Fins in 2022. It’s a risky bet to make for a QB that hasn’t shown he can stay on the field. But if one takes the leap of faith in his health, a lot of things are in place—some big talent around him on offense, good coaching, and an overall team direction that will put Tua in a position to succeed. It was hard to ignore what he was able to do when healthy, which protracted over a whole season with Miami winning would make him a real contender for this honor.

Favorite Longshot Bet to Win MVP

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (+2500): Again the sentimentality card has to be mentioned. If you take a team like Detroit, where you need to be elderly to recall them ever being a real factor, and combine it with a QB who was thought to be all but finished, it sets up well in a few different ways. Not the biggest longshot at just 25-to-1, Goff seems like a guy who, just from a storyline point-of-view, sets up better than a lot of people on this list. It’s no given to be sure, but Detroit is on the rise, and if that comes to fruition in a substantial way this season and Goff is out there slinging it around, he’s someone who can stand out in a major way.

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