NFC West Pick: Rams at Cards Week 12 Analysis & Predictions

The Los Angeles Rams come to Glendale on Sunday for a Week 12 NFC West showdown with the Arizona Cardinals. The Rams scored their fourth win of the season last week, beating the Seahawks for the second time, 17-16, as they continue doing well in their own division. They hope it continues this week on the road against an Arizona team that has gotten a boost with Kyler Murray back in action. On Sunday, however, they came up short on the road against a rising Houston team, 21-16. Who can get us the cover on Sunday in this divisional matchup?

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Before You Think the Cardinals are Easy…

Granted, in this context, at home against a Rams team that is hit-and-miss, their prospects don’t seem too gloomy just out of the box. But for those hypnotized by that 2-9 mark, there are a few things to keep in mind. One is that the great bulk of that was compiled without Kyler Murray, in addition to other costly injuries that had the Cardinals compromised for much of the season. And even with their abysmal bottom-line results, a 6-4-1 record against the spread shows that trying to pick on Arizona hasn’t really paid off, either.

The tides have shifted since these teams played six weeks ago, with the Rams taking a 26-9 win at SoFi Stadium on October 15. Arizona was without both Murray and starting RB James Conner. Tight end Trey McBride was just getting warmed up. The receiver crew wasn’t being put to good use. Murray and Conner’s return makes those things a little better. In addition, we were seeing a feistier version of the Rams than what we see now. Not to be too critical after the Rams scored a nice win last week, but Cooper Kupp is banged up again now and it’s been a while since we’ve seen Stafford and this offense really clicking aerially.

Help on the Way for LA?

It has been hard not to notice the diminishing returns from the Rams’ offense, accompanied by running back Kyren Williams being injured for a number of weeks. Due to return this week, he offers more dimensions for a Rams’ team that has seen their one-dimensional offense without the run-game fall flat in Williams’ absence. Rust and workload issues aside, his return offers some promise for an offense that has hit some walls lately. You’d still like to see Cooper Kupp in there, just to offer a glimpse of what this offense looks like at full-power, something we haven’t seen much this season.

The Rams are a problematic team, make no mistake. Stafford is on the downside of his career, health remains an issue, and a lot of weeks will feature this offense meandering. But in certain spots, this being one of them, with the presence of a real QB in Stafford working with legit pieces like Kupp, Puka Nacua, and other dangerous ball-catchers, along with Williams in the backfield, it’s an offense that on the right day can take off and do major damage. In a divisional game that looks like it might be a close one, having that extra gear counts for something. For what it’s worth, the Rams offense seems like the more likely candidate to have one of those spike-weeks.

Tough Spot for Arizona?

Getting Murray back and now him having played two games, there should be more promise. But the times we’ve seen the Cardinals cover the spread this season, usually they’re getting some points. With this game practically a pick-’em with the spread being one point, it’s not as desirable a spot perhaps. They’ve fared well in a few similar spots, covering the spread with short numbers against Atlanta and the Giants. When you need them to actually win straight-up, they become a little less of an attractive option, being that has occurred just twice as we head into week 12. With this opponent, it’s just not as easy as it looks. The Rams don’t have a lot of names on that defense other than Aaron Donald, but in certain contexts, they are actually quite serviceable. They don’t make a ton of big plays, but can be pretty stout on a given week.

Arizona might have more hope on their defense, at least from a playmaking standpoint. They can rush the passer and make big plays. When looking at both offensive units and their propensity for making mistakes, having that knack on defense can go a long way. But while this “D” and their ability to overperform is a big part of why the Cardinals only have four non-covers heading into week 12, they can also be readily exploitable, something that should cause concern heading into this week against the Rams’ offense with Williams back in the fold. The Cardinals “D” can hang in there, but then give up big plays that undermine the whole operation. It was a big part of what got them in trouble in the first game against the Rams this season.

Take the Short Road Dog

Having the Rams on the road without a point cushion should produce some consternation. Those who have taken the Rams this season know a rosy prognosis for the offense can go unfulfilled in a major way. I just see this as a spot where they’ve shown they can do business. And if offense is the name of the game this week to any degree, I tend to opt for the Rams’ weapons and versatility, in addition to a higher ceiling when things are going well. I’ll go with the Rams this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Los Angeles Rams minus 1 point.