NFC South Pick: Saints vs. Bucs Point Spread Bet

New Orleans Saints (7-8 SU, 4-10-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7, 10-5), 12/31/23
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 31
Where: Raymond James Stadium
TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point spread: NO +2.5/TB -2.5
Money line: NO +120/TB -140
Total: 42.5

The surging Buccaneers can clinch a third straight NFC South title with a win at home Sunday against rival New Orleans.

That certainly seemed like an iffy proposition a month ago but Tampa Bay owns four straight victories. With “help” from elsewhere the Bucs find themselves in first place, with just two games to play.

Tampa’s also one of the better bets in the League so far this season, playing above expectations. New Orleans, on the other hand, is one of the worst bets in the League. And yet the Saints are still alive in the NFC playoff picture.

NFL Betting Market

The Week 17 NFL betting market opened Tampa Bay at -3 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 41. Early betting action shaved that line to 2.5 and bumped that total to 42.5.

Saints-Buccaneers Betting Preview

New Orleans won back-to-back games earlier this month against Carolina and the Giants but lost last Thursday at the Rams 30-22. And that game wasn’t as close as that final score might indicate. The Saints fell down 10-0 early, trailed 17-7 at the half, then 30-7 in the fourth quarter, before scoring twice late just to make things half-interesting.

New Orleans also whiffed ATS at +4.

The Saints got out-gained by Los Angeles 458-339, and almost half of New Orleans’ yardage came in garbage time. The Saints also got out-rushed 133-35.

So New Orleans has lost the ground battle nine of its last ten times out.

Two weeks ago, the Saints beat the Giants 24-6. Three weeks ago, they beat Carolina 28-6. But let’s face it: New York and the Panthers stink, combining to play 7-23 this season.

At 7-8 overall, New Orleans trails first-place Tampa Bay by one game and a tie-breaker in the NFC South. The Saints also trail Seattle by one game and three other teams in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the NFC playoff standings.

So New Orleans is alive, but they need wins and help.

The Bucs out-gained the Jaguars 335-305, and about two-thirds of the yardage the Tampa defense allowed came in garbage time.

Tampa Bay has now out-gained three of its last four opponents and out-rushed three of its last four foes (not all the same).

Two weeks ago, the Buccaneers racked up 452 yards of offense and won at Green Bay 34-20. Three weeks ago, the Bucs scored with 30 seconds left to beat Atlanta 29-25. And four weeks ago, Tampa defeated Carolina 21-18.

At 8-7 overall Tampa Bay leads the NFC South by one game over both the Falcons and the Saints, with two games to play.

Saints-Bucs Recent History

Tampa Bay owns a three-game winning streak on rival New Orleans, going 2-1 ATS. Most recently, back in October, the Bucs won the first meeting between these teams this season 26-9 at the Superdome. Tampa totally out-played the Saints that day and won outright as a 3.5-point dog.

Also, that game played under a total of 41.

Common Opponents

These teams have played ten common opponents this season: members of the NFC South and North and the AFC South. Tampa Bay played those foes to 7-4, both SU and ATS, and New Orleans to 5-6 SU, 2-8-1 ATS.

Totals Report

• The Unders are 10-5 in Saints games this season, which are averaging 42 total points.
• The Unders are 9-6 in Bucs games, which are also averaging 42 points.
• The Overs played 10-6 in the NFL last week but on the season the Unders are 131-109.
• The Unders are 6-1 over the last seven meetings between these teams.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Tampa Bay is playing winning football as of late while New Orleans just doesn’t impress. The Buccaneers own the better QB, the better run defense and the better performance against common opponents. Also, Tampa out-played the Saints earlier this season. We’re betting the Bucs to continue their recent winning ways Sunday.