NFC South Betting Insights: 2023 Season Win Totals and Strategies

Tom Brady has finally hung up his cleats, which should end Tampa Bay’s short reign atop the NFC South, leaving the division wide open in 2023. After the teams in the division combined for only 29 wins last year, the combined season win total is 31 this year, with really only one potentially team-changing player addition. I think 3 of these teams will go Under their total, but it’s hard to figure out who the outlier is, so I am betting all of them under to win 3 of the four bets. They will square off against the teams from the NFC North and AFC South, which is a pretty good draw. Let’s look at how to play each team’s season win total at BOVADA.LV and a few other bets that look good.

New Orleans Saints: Under 9.5 Wins -130

Last year the Saints won seven games, and then in free agency, they added QB Derek Carr, who averaged seven wins per season over his last five years with the Raiders. So why do we think this team can win ten games this year? Head Coach Dennis Allen coached the Raiders for two seasons and won eight games and then was fired after game 4 of season three with 0 wins, and now carries a career 15-36 record. There is no reason to believe all of a sudden, he has figured out how to inspire a team to win double-digit games. The offense gets a very slight upgrade with Carr compared to Andy Dalton and will be without star RB Alvin Kamara for the first three games. Their offensive line was not as dominant as it was a few years ago, and they made no attempt to upgrade the unit. The defense is better than average, allowing the 9th fewest points last year, but they were 30th in the league in takeaways. There were no significant improvements on defense, so this is not a unit that Offensive Coordinators will fear. Sprinkle a little of this bet on the Saints Under 7½ at +270 to get exposure to a potential falling apart of this team. I would go Under 5.5 at +800 if the division were just a little stronger.

Atlanta Falcons: Under 7.5 +125

A lot of experts think the Falcons are on the verge of breaking out and taking over this division. They won 7 times in 2022, including a week 18 win against Tampa’s back-ups. Desmond Ritter is supposed to be the knight in shining armor to come to the rescue for an offense that only topped the Chicago Bears in passing yards last year, but in Ridder’s four starts, he averaged only 180 passing yards and threw for two touchdowns while adding very little in the running game. Atlanta added the best Running Back in the draft – Bijan Robinson – to make the offense more dynamic. Robinson will work ahead of Tyler Allgeier, who averaged almost 5 yards per carry as a rookie in 2022. Robinson is definitely an upgrade, and Coach Arthur Smith is excellent at developing a running game, but the absence of a passing game is a big hurdle for the running game to overcome. The secondary is the strength of the defense, especially with the addition of free agent Jessie Bates. However, the Falcons’ pass rush took down opposing quarterbacks only 21 times last year and is counting on Kaden Elliss (seven sacks last year) and Bud Dupree (four sacks last year) to come in and spark the front seven. I’m expecting the Falcons to play a lot of close games, but Ritter won’t be able to lead the team to 4th quarter wins, leaving them with six or seven wins.

Carolina Panthers: Under 7.5 +105

Bryce Young was the No. 1 overall pick and this year’s draft and has the talent to become a top-tier QB in a few short years. He is a great thrower and an electric runner and would be considered a ca n’t-miss prospect if he were 5 inches taller. Frank Reich is the new coach after the Matt Rhule experiment fizzled out. The Panthers won 6 of their last 11 games last year, so they have hope, but some of the key players that made that winning streak happen are not returning. D.J. Moore was traded for the 1st pick, leaving the receiving corps very weak, and Miles Sanders will take over as running back from D’Onta Foreman. Sanders had a lot of success behind Philly’s elite offensive line, but he is no better than Foreman. The defense was middle of the pack last year and hasn’t done anything to move the needle in 2023. This is my least favorite of the Unders in this division, but I think the lack of skill players around Young will make things tough on him as he learns the NFL game. I love Young’s passing yard prop Under 3275½ (+100).

Tampa Bay Bucs: Under 6.5 -135

My how the Bucs have fallen. They won the Super Bowl after the 2020 season, won 13 games in 2021, then 8 in 2022 but still won the division, and now the bookmakers don’t think they can win seven games. And what’s worse – Baker Mayfield is their quarterback. Mayfield has fallen himself, from ascending starting QB for the Browns to a guy that got shipped out by the Browns, then went 2-8 as a starter with Carolina and the Rams. It’s easy to agree that Tampa isn’t winning many games. They have a great wide-receiving tandem, but Mayfield’s inability to throw the ball downfield will take Mike Evans out of play, and the rushing game is a big question mark with Rachaad White expected to carry the load. Head coach Todd Bowles is an expert Defensive Coordinator, so the Bucs’ only hope is that their defense can carry the squad. But Bowles only has 34 wins in 84 games as a head coach, so we shouldn’t expect to win seven games with a mediocre squad and a bad QB. If Mayfield plays as badly as he did last year, Tampa could have the No. 1 overall pick next year, and Bowles could be the first coach fired. 

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