NFC Divisional Playoff Betting: Commanders vs. Lions Pick & Prediction

Washington Commanders (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (15-2 SU, 12-5 ATS)
NFC Divisional Playoff Betting Preview
Date/Time: Saturday, January 18th, 2025, 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Ford Field Detroit, MI.
TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: WAS +10/DET -10
Moneyline: WAS +380/DET -550
Total: 55.5

Last week, the Washington Commanders kept their Cinderella story alive by winning their first playoff game since 2005 with a 23-20 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While Head Coach Dan Quinn can be given some credit for quickly turning around an organization that went 4-13 SU last year, rookie QB Jayden Daniels deserves the most credit on the heels of a season where he has broken the record for rushing yards (927) by a quarterback and has thrown for 3,800 yards with 27 touchdowns and nine picks.

While Daniels has the Washington offense playing at a high level, the Commanders’ Cinderella story will face its toughest challenge of the season this week in an NFC Divisional playoff match-up against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. The Lions tied the Chiefs for the best record (15-2 SU) in the NFL this season and have won 14 of their last 15 games, which has earned them the No. 1 seeding in the NFC. As a result, the road to Super Bowl LIX has to come through Detroit. On Saturday, the Lions will have the opportunity to host a playoff game for just the 9th time in franchise history. To date, the Lions are 7-1 SU all-time at home in postseason action and will be sizable 10-point betting favorites against the Commanders!

Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions Betting Analysis

In some ways, the match-up for the Commanders’ offense is similar this week as it was last week against the Buccaneers’ defense. The Lions are solid up front against the run but have suffered a ton of injuries, especially in the secondary, which leaves them vulnerable to the vertical passing threat. WR Terry McLaurin was the difference maker in last week’s victory against the Buccaneers, following seven catches for 89 yards with a touchdown. McLaurin has another ideal match-up against the Lions, but Washington is likely going to need some help to match the firepower of the Detroit offense, which means that the Commanders are going to need someone to step up from the unlikely suspects of WR Olamide Zaccheaus, WR Dyami Brown, and/or TE Zach Ertz.

While I believe that the Commanders will create some scoring opportunities, I just don’t know if they have the talent at the skill positions to match Detroit outside of McLaurin. Meanwhile, Detroit RB Jahmyr Gibbs provides a homerun threat on every touch against a vulnerable Washington run defense. Meanwhile, QB Jared Goff has numerous vertical options in the form of receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, who have both eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving mark on the season. Furthermore, the Lions may have RB David Montgomery back this weekend as well to complete the NFL’s best 1-2 punch in the backfield. Montgomery was a full participant in Tuesday’s practice which means the Lions’ elite rushing attack will get the opportunity to attack a Commanders’ defense that has yielded nearly 140 yards per game on the ground as one of the NFL’s bottom five-run defenses!

Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions Betting Trends

• Washington is 6-0 SU in the last six games.
• Washington is 6-2 SU in the last eight games on the road.
• Washington has hit the “over” in 12 of the last 19 games.
• Washington is 4-2 ATS in the last six games.
• Detroit is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 games.
• Detroit is 14-1 SU in the last 15 games.
• Detroit has hit the “over” in four of the last five games.
• Detroit is 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games against Washington.

Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions Betting Prediction

This will be another big-time home setting for the Lions, who have edges on both sides of the football. I believe the Lions’ rushing attack between Montgomery and Gibbs will wreak havoc on the Washington defense and keep them on their heels, which will also lead to opportunities in the passing game. As a result, I think the Lions likely win in convincing fashion!

Jay’s Pick: Take Detroit -10!