New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers MNF Point Spread Pick

New York Jets (7-10 in 2023) vs. San Francisco 49ers (12-5 last season)

Date: Monday, September 9th, 2024

Time: 8:20PM ET

Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

Weather: Perfect football weather! 75 degrees with light winds around 15mph

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: NYJ +4.5/SF -4.5

Over/Under: 43.5

Money Line: NY +180/Niners -220

The Week 1 Monday Night Football matchup between the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers opened with the Niners as -6.5 home favorites. As of game day, the line has dropped to SF -4, then bounced up to -4.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has dropped to 43.

I’m not a huge fan of putting picks out before games have been played, but I’ll do my best. It’s tough to accurately predict outcomes when there’s been player and coach movement and teams have implemented new game plans. In the case of the Week 1 MNF game between SF and the NYJ, this is actually a good thing, because I really like the fact that Robert Saleh has extended his tenure and has now had time to bring in “his type of player” rather than what he inherited in 2021 when he took over as the team’s Skipper. It’s possible that Saleh is the best coach that ever existed who currently has a losing win-loss record. (in any sport). This guy is sharp and his players love him. I expect the Jets to have a really good season as long as they stay healthy. His policies, philosophies and competitiveness will result in a winning product. That time is now.

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Reasons Why I Think the Jets Will Win & Cover

Jets coach Robert Saleh has an advantage. He was the defensive coordinator from 2017-2020 for the Niners and is familiar with Kyle Shanahan’s methods.

Other sharp NFL handicappers agree. The line opened at -6.5 and has been bet down to -4.5. This despite only 41% of the general public (very square contest I follow) betting on the J-E-T-S.

Four points is too many. Two good teams with two good defenses in what I expect to be a lower scoring game creates an excellent scenario for the underdog in a game with a point spread of four. There is no higher percentage of final score outcomes than the number three. Four is also a common final score margin. I absolutely love betting on games where we’re the beneficiary of these two key numbers. We’ve got “the hook” going in our favor too.

It’s early in the season. Generally speaking, teams aren’t real efficient in Week 1. This points to the probability of having less scoring and a smaller final score margin. Like yesterday, many games start sluggish as teams try to find their footing, timing and familiarity. A first half bet on the Jets is also in play here, and possibly an even better bet than wagering on the full game point spread.

The Jets should neutralize San Fran’s passing game. New York is flat-nasty in the secondary with Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II in coverage.

While Brandon Aiyuk’s holdout and Ricky Pearsall’s shooting victim drama likely won’t be a major drawback, it surely can’t help.

The Niners have lost some key pieces. Beastly edge rusher Arik Armstead left for Jacksonville, DT Kalia Davis is out with a bad knee, edge Drake Jackson also has a knee issue and is on the PUP list, CB Ambry Thomas won’t return until Week 5 and LB Dre Greenlaw is down with an achilles injury. They have more injuries as well, these are just the important pieces they’ll be missing on Monday.

Aaron Rodgers is from the Bay Area and will be extra motivated to play well.

The Jets upgraded their-offensive line with All-Pro LT Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and John Simpson.

Public perception. The Niners went to the Super Bowl last and the Jets pretty much sucked all season. Most fans and bettors think about Zach Wilson when they hear Jets. He’s long gone and while I’m not a huge fan of an aging Aaron Rodgers, he’s surely an upgrade from the deer-in-the-headlights young Wilson. There’s a lot to be said about tonight’s game line being only four points. I make the true line at a pick’em or better in favor of New York

Kevin’s Pick to Cover the Spread I’m betting on the New York Jets at +4.5. I’m also throwing down a lunch money bet on the NYJ money line at +180.