New York Jets vs. Philadelphia Eagles Pick 10/6/19

New York Jets (0-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
When: Sunday, October 6th, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
TV: CBS

Point Spread: NYJ +13.5 / PHI -13.5 (5Dimes)
Total: 44.5

Power Ratings: Philadelphia -18

Takeaways From Week Four

The Jets come in off a bye but enter in this game winless on the year. Gang Green was last in action on Sunday, September 22nd when they ventured up to Foxboro to face their arch-nemesis, the New England Patriots. Closing as a 20.5-point underdog, the Jets were able to cash in against the spread despite falling 30-14.

The Eagles made a statement before a primetime audience when they marched into Lambeau Field and defeated the undefeated Green Bay Packers on their own field by a score 34-27, despite closing as a 3.5-point underdog. The Eagles snapped a five-game skid of failing to cover while doing so.

How the Public is Betting the New York- Philadelphia Game

62% of the public are keen to lay the points with the Eagles. However, we have seen the line fall by a half of a point in the opposite direction from the opening line of Philly laying two-full touchdowns to the Jets.

More Picks: Pats vs. Skins Week 5 Pick >>>

The Historicals

Dating back to 1973, the New York Jets have never beat the Philadelphia Eagles. What we have here is a classic case of supremacy on display by the City of Brotherly Love against their Big Apple counterparts. These two sides last met in 2015 when Gang Green hosted the Eagles and was upset 24-17 despite Philly being priced as a three-point underdog.

Betting Trends

Besides the Jets not being able to generate a win against the Eagles dating back to 1973, New York has also covered just once over this period. That cover occurred 23 years ago in 1996 when the Jets came in under a 7.5-point line.

Injury Concerns

The biggest elephant in the room for this game is who the Jets will feature at quarterback as their starter Sam Darnold continues to battle mono. Sam is aiming to get back under center for the Jets bout with the Eagles but remains questionable given his condition. Should Darnold stay on the sideline, Luke Falk will once again be the likely starter who had to step into back-up duties after quarterback Trevor Siemian was placed on the IR due to a sustained ankle injury against Cleveland on September 16th.

If you’re from New York, you probably have money. It’s expensive to live there! You also probably care about that money. So why are you still laying -110 odds on games? If you lose a $550 wager, you lost 50 bucks in vig. If you bet at reduced odds -105, you only lost 25 bucks (instead of 50). If you’re still paying the book -110 odds, STOP. Wisen up and start betting games at -105 reduced odds at 5Dimes. It’s simply the smart thing to do.

Why We Like The Jets To Cover

The alacrity of many to jump on Philly who looks like easy cash here given their overall profitability in this series makes them a prime fade target in my opinion. After all, Philly’s stock soared like their Eagle moniker after they staged one of the more impressive wins this season before a national audience, last Thursday. Contrarily, the market will look at a team like the Jets who have looked frightful at times and hit the sell switch immediately. As mentioned, when you toss in the history between these two teams, the consensus position will be to smother the Eagles in this spot. However, early money has come in on the Jets and in my estimation that is professional money who sees this line as an opportunity to cash in on an almost-certain inflated number that I anticipate will once again bounce back…unless of course Darnold comes back.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: New York Jets +13.5

Should Sam Darnold be available for this game on Sunday, this line may very well plummet to New York being a single-digit dog, so I urge takers that are keen to get aboard the Jets to do so here and now. Should the Jets have Darnold available, a late touchdown could easily settle this game, and maybe the Jets even stage an upset. After all, the Eagles struggled to get by the lowly Washington Redskins in Week One. If things stay as they are with Darnold out, this number is still quite high as Philly has failed to cover the last two times they were priced as a double-digit favorite dating back to 2018. Given the historical dominance of Philadelphia in this series, I expect the Jets to come into this game with heightened motivation and treat this actually as a potential playoff game. On the flip side, Philadelphia may still be basking in the Green Bay win and look past these Jets as they prepare for another big test when the Eagles travel to Minnesota, next Sunday. Grab the points.