New York Jets vs. New York Giants Pick 8/8/19

New York Jets (0-0) vs. New York Giants (0-0), 8/8/19
Time: 7 pm ET Thursday, Aug. 8
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV: ESPN

Point spread: Jets -2 (Bookmaker)
Moneyline: NA
Over/Under: 33

The Jets haven’t made the NFL playoffs since 2010, and now they’ve got another new head coach. Meanwhile, the Giants haven’t made the playoffs the last two seasons and just traded their most dangerous downfield weapon. So it’s two teams with uncertain futures meeting when the Jets play the Giants Thursday night in New Jersey. Who do we like for our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 1’s NFL preseason betting odds opened the Jets at around -1.5 over the Giants, with an over/under of 33. Early betting action then bumped that line up to -2 and the total to 33.5.

Jets vs. Giants Set-Up

After going 14-34 straight up, 19-24-5 against the spread over the last three seasons (see Jets O/U wins) the Jets canned Coach Bowles and replaced him with former Miami HC Adam Gase. But is that an improvement? Gase finished 10-6 in his first season with the Dolphins and made the playoffs, then went 13-19 the next two seasons. And his offense regressed every year.

Over the off-season, the Jets added multi-threat RB Le’Veon Bell and used their first two picks in the draft on defense. But we can’t imagine Bell would touch the field Thursday night, and same goes for second-year starting QB Sam Darnold. So it looks like the Jets will be quarterbacked by some combination of journeymen Trevor Siemian and Davis Webb and rookie Luke Falk.

The Jets ranked 29th in the league in total offense last season, averaging just 299 yards per game, and 25th in total defense, allowing 380 YPG.

The Giants, meanwhile, finished 5-11 SU, 8-7-1 ATS last season, their first year under Coach Shurmur. The G-Men lost eight games by seven points or less, five by three or less, thus their winning ATS record.

Over the off-season, the Giants traded WR Odell Beckham, dumped a couple of other veterans, brought in some cast-offs, probably over-reached by taking Duke QB Daniel Jones with the seventh overall pick in the draft, then used their next five picks on defense.

The Giants will undoubtedly rely a whole lot offensively on second-year phenom RB Saquon Barkley this season, but not Thursday night. If they’re smart, they’ll bubble-wrap Barkley in a locked hotel room somewhere Upstate until Sept. 8.

As for Jones he might as well play Thursday. The Giants’ other two quarterbacks at the moment are fourth-year man Alex Tanney and second-year Kyle Lauletta.

The Giants ranked 17th in the league in total offense last year at 356 YPG and 24th in total defense at 371 YPG.

These two teams, who share a home stadium, meet every pre-season; the Giants currently own a three-game winning streak in the series.

These teams will also meet in Week 10 of this upcoming NFL regular season, so they probably won’t get too deep into the playbooks.

NFL Betting Trends

Gase finished 5-7 both SU and ATS over three exhibition seasons as HC at Miami.

The Giants finished 2-2 both SU and ATS in their first exhibition season with Coach Shurmur last year.

Totals Report

• Overs finished 10-6 in Jets games last season, which averaged 48 total points.
• Overs finished 9-7 in Giants games this season, which averaged 49 points.
• Overs, somewhat surprisingly, played 11-6 in Week 1 of last year’s NFL exhibition season.

Free NFL Pick

The Giants are in their second training camp/exhibition season under Coach Shurmur, and you’d think that might give them an edge over the Jets, who are in their first under Coach Gase. Ultimately, though, much of handicapping NFL exhibition games come down to the quarterback rotation, and the Jets’ collection of back-ups holds a significant advantage in experience over the Giants. So we’ll go with the Jets for our free NFL pick here.