New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Betting Pick

New York Jets (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 11
Date/Time: Sunday November 20th, 2022. 1:00 PM (EST)
Where: Gillette Stadium Foxborough, MA
TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: NYJ +3/NE -3
Moneyline: NYJ +150/NE -170
Total: 38

Following two straight losses by the Buffalo Bills, the battle for supremacy in the AFC East is once again wide open, with all 4 division teams being separated by just two games. The New York Jets have been the surprise story in the division and perhaps the surprise story in the NFL this season. At 6-3 SU, the Jets are just one game behind the Dolphins for the top spot in the AFC East. Following a big win over Buffalo in Week 9 and fresh off a recent bye, the Jets will return to action this Sunday in a dicey road trip to Foxborough for a showdown with the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.

As things currently stand, the Patriots are listed as the slight betting favorite, which may be slightly surprising. However, the Patriots will be the home team this week and have racked up four victories over the last five games. Perhaps more important is the fact that New England has completely dominated the Jets in head-to-head scenarios. In fact, the Patriots have won 13 straight meetings over the Jets, which extends back to 2015 in an overtime loss back when Ryan Fitzpatrick was the quarterback for the Jets. The extensive winning streak has arguably influenced this week’s betting line. On Sunday, the Patriots will look to extend their dominance over the Jets and climb back into the thick of the AFC East division race.

NY Jets vs. New England Patriots Betting Analysis

While the Patriots have definitely owned the trends over the Jets, I am more concerned about the logistics of this week 11 showdown this Sunday. The Jets’ success this season has been a product of better offensive production backed with even better defense. The Jets actually own the 7th best defense in the league allowing just 312 yards per game. However, both defenses in this game have played well in recent weeks and own positive match-ups against the opposing offenses, which is indicative of the lowest total (38) of any NFL match-up this week.

Therefore, we really need to determine which offense is going to create the most scoring opportunities and/or has the most paths to victory. Personally, I am not sure if the answer is crystal clear for either offense. However, I do side with the Patriots and the better ground attack. Both the Jets and Patriots rely heavily on the ground game because they simply don’t have the quarterback play to thrive in high-volume passing attacks. Patriots QB Mac Jones has tossed just four touchdowns compared to seven interceptions in the entire season. Meanwhile, Jets QB Zach Wilson has not been much better, with four touchdowns and five picks on the year. Therefore, this game will likely be determined by the success of either offense’s rushing game, and/or potential turnovers could have a sizable impact as well.

When I look at the intrinsic match-ups for this contest, I really believe New England has the more reliable path to victory with their ground attack. RB Damien Harris is expected to return this week after missing the last game with an illness. As a result, the Patriots will have their dynamic duo in the backfield, which includes Rhamondre Stevenson, who has been playing well in recent weeks. Simply put, I think the Patriots will have better success moving the football as opposed to Jets RB Michael Carter and QB Zach Wilson against a tough New England defense. The continued emergence of WR Garrett Wilson and the pending return of Corey Davis provides opportunities for the Jets’ offense. However, I am just not convinced Wilson can be relied upon in this difficult match-up.

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New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends

• The Jets are 5-1 ATS in the last six games
• The Jets are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games on the road
• The Jets have hit the “under” in four of the last five games
• The Jets are 0-13 SU in the last 13 meetings against New England
• The Jets are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings against New England
• The Patriots are also 5-1 ATS in the last six games
• The Patriots have hit the “over” in eight of the last ten games at home
• The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in the last five division games
• The Patriots are 4-1 SU in the last five games
• The “under” has cashed in nine of the last 13 meetings between the Jets and Patriots

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Betting Prediction

I expect this to be a very competitive low-scoring game, as the betting line suggests. However, I really like the match-ups and history that side with the Patriots. I expect New England will move the ball relatively well and make the most of their opportunities.
Jay’s Pick: Take New England -3