New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Betting Prediction for Week 5

New York Jets (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (1-3 SU, 0-3-1 ATS)

Week 5 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 8, 2023, at 4:25 PM EDT

Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium, Denver, Colorado

TV: CBS

Point Spread: NYJ +2/DEN -2 (Bovada – Better than all the rest! Check them out!)

Money Line: J-E-T-S +110, Horses -130

Over/Under Total: 43

The New York Jets take on the Denver Broncos at Mile High in a week five AFC battle. It’s not easy to praise Denver in the midst of the season they’ve been having, but they showed some moxie in overcoming a 28-7 deficit against the Bears last week to win 31-28. They now look for a chance to get to 2-3 with an incoming 1-3 Jets team, winless since week one and recipients of a painful 23-20 loss to the Chiefs last week. They get another AFC West team this week and look to also get to 2-3. Who can get it done this week in Denver?

Who Has the Better Chance to Shine?

Say what you will of Russell Wilson as a Bronco, as the project hasn’t gone well as of yet. That fifty-point loss to Miami a few weeks ago casts a stink that still permeates. But at home, having a proven NFL starter counts for something in this matchup against the desultory Jets’ offense, led by Zach Wilson. Still, the Jets’ defense maintains some of their bite, and other than a 30-point allowance to Dallas, they’ve given up just a total of 54 points to the Bills, Patriots, and Chiefs. The Jets will be riding their “D” this season if they have any hopes for anything, and Wilson and Company might not find it easy this week.

While it worked against a Chicago defense that has begun the season in awful fashion, Denver’s mish-mosh offense leaves a lot to be desired. Supposed contributors like Javonte Williams (questionable) and Jerry Jeudy have been invisible. Their leading receiver in yardage is Marvin Mims, Jr., who has caught nine balls this season. You see guys popping up in the stat-sheets like Jaleel McLaughlin and Brandon Johnson. Tight end contributions are practically invisible. RB Samaje Perine was a nice addition, and he has also been hard to find.

There were some positive signs from the Jets last week in a close one with the defending Super Bowl champions. Wilson had one of his best games, but his typical mistake-making cost them once again with a costly fourth-quarter fumble. When you look at this Denver defense, it’s a unit where a lot of different offenses can find success. A few weeks ago, it was a video game-level rushing extravaganza by the Dolphins. Last week, Justin Fields and a Chicago offense that hadn’t seen success all season was running up and down the field against this Broncos’ defense. They deserve some credit for tightening up late to stage the big comeback win. But even if you do them a favor and write off the 70-point allowance to Miami, giving up 35 to Washington and a 300-yard/4 TD game to Justin Fields isn’t making them look very good, either.

Defer to Defense?

In a game of this nature, sometimes it’s a good idea to just go with the one possible separator in all this—the Jets’ defense. With Denver, you have an offense that, despite being able to move the ball, is shrouded in overall disappointment. And their “D” is just plain bad. The Jets without Rodgers have seen this whole season derail. Therefore, it’s the New York defense that remains as the lone compelling aspect of the game. They are stout and can deliver big plays. Jordan Whitehead has three picks, and we see a lot of overall energy in this secondary. With the Jets’ defense able to stop Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Patrick Mahomes from having big days, why can’t they do the same thing to Russell Wilson?

Still, there’s this sneaking suspicion that despite the Broncos’ recent failings, the shock of their 70-20 loss, and the overall deflation from the Wilson trade kind of going sour has maybe camouflaged some things they’re doing well. That would mostly relate to the offensive side of the ball. With the 33 points scored against Washington, along with some decent offensive sequences in the Miami game and the second-half explosion against the Bears, we see Wilson being pretty efficient. And while it’s upsetting to not see him not relying on his supposed heavy hitters, maybe there’s something to be said for his ability to start getting something out of these rookies and more unsung guys.

It’s an interesting equation with some plausible optimism on both sides. That Jets’ offense has been looking rough. But with the way Denver has looked against the run, maybe we will see some of the Breece Hill magic we saw last season. And aerially, it’s not like they haven’t shown that even Zach Wilson can do some damage with talent like Garrett Wilson at his disposal. It’s a hopeful day for the Jets’ offense, something that isn’t going to happen a ton this season, especially on the road. And again, a team needn’t have an elite offense this season to put up points against the Broncos.

Take the Number on the Road Dog

The only real identifiable advantage for the Broncos is QB play, and even that isn’t a particular area of strength and is partially mitigated by the effectiveness of the Jets’ pass-defense. The Jets might prove to be a downright bad team this season when it’s said and done, but overall, they are better than the Bears, and I’m not sure Denver beating a team on a now 14-game losing streak clears the room of the stench of their previous game and how things have just not gone their way. I think the Jets hang in there with a shot to win in the end.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the New York Jets plus two points.

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