Underdog Pick: New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

New York Jets (3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS)

When: Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: New Era Field, Buffalo, New York
TV: CBS

Point Spread: NYJ +3.5 / BUF -3.5
Total: 38.5
Power Ratings: Buffalo -3

Takeaways From Week 13

The Jets enter this match off their sixth consecutive loss when Gang Green suffered a collapse on the road in Music City last Sunday. New York led by as much as 16 points against the Tennessee Titans but eventually fell apart down the backstretch as Tennessee would outscore the Jets 26-6 to earn a come-from-behind win. New York nonetheless ended a five-game skid in failing to produce a cover.

The Bills saw a two-game winning streak come to an end last Sunday when they journeyed down to the Sunshine State to meet with their arch-rivals the Miami Dolphins. The Bills would lose by a score of 21-17 also failing to cover as a 3.5-point underdog.

How the Public is Betting the New York-Buffalo Game

At the moment, the market is split down the middle in picking a side with 50% of the consensus on both the Bills and Jets.

The Historical

This AFC East rivalry has been a well-balanced one for the most part as of late. The Bills and Jets have each won three of the last six contests between both parties. However, the meeting between the two teams earlier this season at MetLife Stadium could be emphasized in this affair when the Bills ransacked the Jets on their own pitch by a score of 41-10 as a seven-point underdog.

Injury Concerns

Jets quarterback Sam Darnold is listed as probable for this fixture and should he be good to go he will reprise his starting role. The Jets have not had the rookie sensation under center for three games.

When Buffalo Has the Ball

The Bills’ offense ranks 31st in the NFL in total offense (285.7 yards per game), passing offense (164.6 passing yards per game), and scoring (14.8 points per game). Despite their pedestrian production in most initiatives, the Bills boast the 12th ranked rushing attack (121.1 yards per game) spearheaded by dynamic rusher LeSean “Shady” McCoy. On paper, the Bills have a good match-up against a Jets defense ranked 26th against the run, surrendering 128.3 rushing yards per game. However, the Bills are a one-trick pony, and the Jets have a defensive-minded coach in Todd Bowles who will undoubtedly whip up a few schemes to undermine this attack.

When New York Has the Ball

Like the Bills, New York’s offense has regressed to one of the worst in the NFL producing a thirtieth-ranked 300.4 yards of total offense per game. This is a football team that also produces just 20.2 points per game (26th in the NFL), and this is largely chalked up to their one-dimensional approach. New York is eager to run the football but does not have a passing game to complement their rushing aspirations to keep defenses honest. New York averages just 192.4 yards per game through the air (30th in the NFL), and they will get no help from a Buffalo defense that is the best in the business in passing defense, allowing just 187.2 passing yards per game. The combination of the match-up of each team’s offenses against the opposition’s defense is bound to steer attention towards Buffalo in this spot.

Betting Trends

In the last seven fixtures between New York and Buffalo, the Underdog is 6-1 ATS. Moreover, New York is 1-5 ATS in the previous six matches that took place in Buff City. For those that play totals, the Under is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests.

Weather Report

It’s going to be a cold day in Buffalo with temperatures staying below freezing with forecasts showing temperatures hovering in the upper 20’s. Despite the frigid environs, the skies will be clear and sunny with just a 10% chance of precipitation.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: New York Jets +140 (Money Line)

There is no rhyme or reason to this pick other than the fact that Buffalo looks way too easy here given how these teams played each other four weeks ago. There is little question that a lot of stock will be placed into Buffalo with respect to the pummelling they put on the Jets combined with home field advantage being granted to them, the Jets being 1-5 SU on the road, and the favorable match-up from a strategic perspective. When you factor in the titanic collapse by Gang Green, the Jets will repel a lot of Money Line action out of fear they will blow a lead. However, if there is one thing that can be preached, it is buy-low and sell-high. The stock in the Jets is perhaps even lower this week (irrespective of producing a cover) than it has been in weeks past because of their display of futility. The fact remains that this has been a very competitive divisional series and the Jets will undoubtedly want to keep it that way for morale purposes. While this will not be a spectacle by any means compared to some of the other games on the slate, there is tremendous value here on the Jets as they are likely in a prime position to pull an upset. Had New York won last week, they may have been favored in this contest. But thanks to their overall poor form and a maligned public perception, we get Gang Green at a bargain basement price.