New York Giants (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS), 8/29/19
Time: 7:30 pm ET Thursday, Aug. 29
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA

Point spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -150/New York +130
Over/Under: 35

Both the Giants and Patriots are undefeated so far this NFL exhibition season, heading into their preseason finale Thursday night in Foxboro. But while New England plays, once again, as the defending Super Bowl champion New York is just trying to take a step towards respectability. However, as we all know, bettors must treat Week 4 of the exhibition season with caution. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?

NFL Betting Odds

Week 4’s NFL exhibition betting odds opened New England at -3.5 over New York, with an over/under of 35 points. Early betting action then dropped that hook from that spread. Speaking of betting, are you in the market for a new sportsbook? Check out our top rated sportsbooks sorted by category to get the best fit for your style of wagering.

Giants vs. Patriots Set-Up

New York opened its 2019 exhibition season with a 31-22 victory over the rival Jets, then beat Chicago 32-13, and last Thursday nipped Cincinnati 25-23. The Giants trailed the Bengals previous week 17-10 early in the fourth quarter, scored twice in two minutes, once on a 68-yard punt return touchdown, to take the lead and hung on from there. Starting quarterback, Eli Manning played one series last Thursday, produced a field goal, then turned duties over to back-ups Daniel Jones, Kyle Lauletta and Alex Tanney, who combined to go 17/24 passing for 243 yards, with zero touchdowns but also zero picks. The Giants only ran the ball for 56 yards last Thursday, with running back Saquon Barkley safely tucked away on the sidelines. He’ll remain on the sidelines this Thursday. Manning also will not play Thursday night; Jones will get the start, and our guess is he’ll play about a quarter, before turning things over to the third-stringers. New England, meanwhile, opened its exhibition season with a 31-3 complete defeat of Detroit, then won at Tennessee 22-17, then last Thursday beat Carolina 10-3. The Patriots out-gained the Panthers 316-99 and could have beaten the Panthers by more but turned the ball over twice (once on a fumble, once on downs) inside Carolina territory and missed a field goal. Starting QB Tom Brady played three series last Thursday, producing seven points. Back-up Jarrett Stidham then hit on 15/19 throws for 134 yards from there. Brady won’t play Thursday night, either, so Stidham and Brian Hoyer, who both have played well this preseason, will pilot the Patriots. These teams have met each of the last 14 exhibition seasons; New York is 10-4 SU, 8-4-2 ATS over that span, 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS over the previous five meetings. Last preseason, with Brady and Manning both out, New England snapped a four-game losing streak in the series with a 17-12 victory.

NFL Betting Trends

• The Giants are 5-2 both SU and ATS in one-plus exhibition seasons under Coach Shurmur.
• The Patriots are 44-35 SU, 40-35-4 ATS in 19-plus exhibition seasons under Coach Belichick.
• Favorites on the NFL betting lines are 26-20 SU, 23-21-2 ATS so far this exhibition season.

Totals Report

Overs are 3-0 in Giants games this preseason, which are averaging 49 total points. Unders are 3-0 in Patriots games this preseason, which are averaging just 29 points. Unders are 28-20 so far this NFL exhibition season. Overs, somewhat surprisingly, played 10-6 during Week 4 of the exhibition season last year.

Free NFL Pick

We expect a lot of starters to sit this one out, including all the big names and talents, as these two teams just try to get to next week as healthy as possible. Also, while we usually can discern an advantage with one back-up quarterbacking corps over another, we can’t here, because both teams have been getting good play from those guys so far. Ultimately, these teams will play things safe, and considering they’ll meet in Week 6 of this upcoming NFL regular season neither is likely to get too deep into their playbooks. So despite what happened in Week 4 of the exhibition season last year, we’re playing the under here for our free NFL pick.