New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Pick

New York Giants (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 5

Date/Time: Sunday, October 8th, 2023. 1:00PM (EST)

Where: Hard Rock Stadium Miami, FL

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: NYG +11.5/MIA -11.5

Moneyline: NYG +410/MIA -585

Total: 48.5

Following an embarrassing performance on the Monday Night Football primetime stage, the New York Giants will take their 1-3 SU campaign on the road this Sunday to battle the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. The Giants’ latest loss resulted in another disastrous performance on the offensive side of the football, resulting in a 24-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Aside from the week two win at Arizona, the Giants offense has combined for just 15 points in losses against the Cowboys, 49ers, and Seahawks. Now that same struggling offense will have the unfortunate opportunity of going on the road to battle the most explosive offense in football in the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins are coming off their first loss of the season in a 48-20 defeat to Buffalo. Despite scoring 70 points against the Broncos in Week 3 at home, the Bills defense held strong against Miami’s potent passing attack, limiting star WR Tyreek Hill to just three catches for 58 yards. Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense had very few answers for stopping QB Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs, who hooked up for three passing touchdowns in a game to decide who gets the early lead in the AFC East. For Miami, this week’s match-up against the Giants will be about getting back on track on both sides of the football as relatively large 11.5-point favorites for their 2nd home game of the season.

New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

Sometimes, when a team plays so bad, it can be difficult to erase that memory to give an unbiased betting analysis. For as bad as the Giants have looked several times this season, it really revolves around the horrific play of the offensive line. QB Daniel Jones is getting hit on nearly every two dropbacks, and the Giants simply have no way to win the battle in the trenches. Against elite pass rushes in Dallas, San Francisco, and an emerging Seattle defensive front, those issues were overwhelmingly obvious to the onlookers.

That said, the Miami defense is not known for creating a ton of pressure on quarterbacks. In fact, the Dolphins rank 22nd in the pass rush, according to PFF. The Dolphins defense is a better coverage unit against the pass. Perhaps this will give Daniel Jones more ample time to throw the football and give this offense a chance. My only concern is that the Giants receiving corps have minimal talent to create separation and make plays down the field. Perhaps this is a bounce-back spot for TE Darren Waller, but I don’t see many paths for the Giants offense being able to create consistent scoring opportunities.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Dolphins simply have overwhelming talent advantages in all areas of the field. Obviously, QB Tua Tagovailoa, along with receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, get most of the attention, and rightfully so, for the potent passing attack. However, I would argue the Dolphins run game has become just as dangerous with the emergence of running back De’Von Achane. Starting RB Raheem Mostert left some fumbles on the field last week, while Achane took eight carries for 101 yards with two touchdowns to provide the only spark for the Dolphins offense for the afternoon. Against a very weak run defense in the Giants, I would be shocked if Achane does not have a bigger role this week, and I expect the Dolphins to shred this New York defense on the ground!

New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Trends

• The Giants are 0-5 ATS in the last five games.
• The Giants are 1-4 SU in the last five games.
• The Giants have hit the “under” in 4 of the last five games.
• The Giants are 4-1 SU in the last five games against Miami.
• The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven games on the road.
• The Dolphins are 13-2 SU in the last 15 games at home.
• The Dolphins have hit the “under” in 4 of the last five games.
• The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in the last five games against NFC opponents.

New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Prediction

I know 11.5 points is a large number. However, I need the Giants to prove they can handle some of the fundamentals of football before anyone can trust them. For this week’s match-up, I don’t believe they can keep this game competitive against an explosive Dolphins offense entering a rebound scenario. Trust the Dolphins and lay the points!

Jay’s Pick: Take Miami -11.5