New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers Recommended Spread Bet

New Orleans Saints (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS)

Week 12 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 4:25PM EST

Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

TV: Fox

Point Spread: NO +9/SF -9 (We don’t recommend parlays, but if you insist on betting them, at least do so at the sportsbooks offering the best parlay odds!)

Over/Under Total: 43

The New Orleans Saints take on the San Francisco 49ers in an NFC battle from Levi’s Stadium on Sunday. Both teams are coming off fruitful weeks and look to further that this week. For the Saints, it was a much-needed win over the Rams 27-20, ending a brutal two-game stretch and hopefully giving them some new life. Meanwhile, the 49ers are starting to see some things click, and three straight wins have them on the move at 6-5. Their 38-10 massacre over the Cardinals on the road on MNF attests to the positive momentum they carry into this key home game on Sunday. Who can bring home the cover for us on Sunday?

Bad Timing for the Saints?

Once again, we’ve seen the 49ers emerge from a hailstorm of injuries, parlaying the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey into some exciting new offensive performances like what we saw on MNF in their obliteration of the Cardinals. The 49ers can be a team that thrives on momentum, and after an uneven start to the season, they’re starting to roll. But at just 6-4, there is still work to do. They are duking it out with Seattle for first place in the division and are in no position to slack off, underestimate their opponent, or show any apathy that could lead to a letdown. For the Saints to pull out of this one with a cover, never mind even a win, they’re going to have to make it happen and not think they can depend on the Niners to help them out with it. They’re playing an efficient team that is getting hot that doesn’t make many mistakes or phone it in.

The Niners are a tough matchup for this New Orleans offense. Despite being mangled by injuries, they have depth—the result of having this same issue pop up most seasons. In the last three games, the Niners have allowed a combined 40 points. The Saints saw a little surge on offense last week, and if they can continue getting reliable aerial production to go along with the rushing upside of Alvin Kamara, they could make some things happen. We saw Andy Dalton throw three TDs, making better use of rookie WR stud Chris Olave and surging TE Juwan Johnson. Taysom Hill was getting more looks, and while Kamara isn’t the consistent threat to have monster games that he was a few years ago, he still has the potential to drop a big game.

Alas, making it happen against a deflated Rams team and seeing it translate on the road against the hot 49ers might be a different thing altogether. The 49ers have playmakers across all areas of their defense. On MNF, we saw their playmaking secondary deliver, as did their pass rush. With guys like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner making plays, the Saints’ O-line will be tested this week, as will Dalton who has gone from looking highly serviceable to games where he’s really floundering. Going against a SF defense that might be snapping into form, what version of Dalton and this Saints’ offense can really be expected to surface?

Possible Answers for the Saints

If only the Saints’ defense had held firm from last season’s form, you could see an angle in this spot. But with how flimsy they’ve become against the run, it wouldn’t seem to shake out well against a 49ers’ ground game that really hit a new dimension with McCaffrey. And it’s not just what CMC provides on his own, but what he does for others. We are seeing guys like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk finding it easier to get open now. Jimmy Garoppolo has been better, and that equation figures to only get better for San Francisco with added time and on-the-field play. While the Saints have gotten a little healthier in the secondary and could provide some resistance to this SF offense aerially, the Niners’ options on the ground could have a huge impact this week.

Still, if looking to find an angle for the Saints, we saw a certain looseness last week. In the NFC South, they’re not really out of it despite a bad record. We saw more touches for Hill and, generally, just a little more of a wide-open creative approach, and we saw Dalton respond well with a solid performance that might have saved him the starting job. They have weapons that could make a good day on offense really count for something, with Kamara, Olave, and the occasional pop-up from the supporting cast. It’s just that on the road against this defense would be a strange time for this inconsistent offense to see a higher-range version of what they can do.

Lay the Number

The Saints are dangerous, and the Niners aren’t really the type of offensive juggernaut where one feels comfortable in laying a gob of points. But maybe with McCaffrey, we see an offense of a real contender, along with a “D” that can more than hold their own. The 49ers’ defense is battle-tested, having been put through the wringer the last few years with injuries. With some people starting to cycle back into the rotation, it’s not a time when one would feel confident about forecasting the type of letdown the Saints would need this week. I like the 49ers on Sunday.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the San Francisco 49ers minus 9 points. Bet your Week 12 NFL picks for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 by entering bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!