New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Pick

New Orleans Saints (5-4 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 10
Date/Time: Sunday November 12th, 2023. 1:00 PM (EST)
Where: U.S Bank Stadium Minneapolis, MN
TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: NO -2.5/MIN +2.5
Moneyline: NO -145/MIN +115
Total: 41

Last week, the Minnesota Vikings captured an unlikely 31-28 victory over the Atlanta Falcons to move back above the .500 mark on the season. The fact the Vikings beat the Falcons was not necessarily an unlikely feat, but the circumstances that surrounded the win were definitely surprising. One week after losing star QB Kirk Cousins with a torn Achilles injury, the Vikings started backup QB Jaren Hall. However, Hall was knocked out of the contest early which led the Vikings to QB Joshua Dobbs who had been acquired on Tuesday just prior to the trade deadline.

Dobbs essentially did not have any time with the team but came off the bench to hit 20 of his 30 passing attempts for 158 yards with two touchdowns to lead the Vikings to a comeback win in the 4th quarter! Not only was the victory huge for a team that has been dealt an unfair hand with injuries in recent weeks, which includes star WR Justin Jefferson, but the victory also kept the Vikings in a decent position as a playoff hopeful. On Sunday, Minnesota will try to overcome adversity yet again as they host the New Orleans Saints at U.S Bank Stadium as mere 2.5-point underdogs.

WR Justin Jefferson will not play in Week 10

Justin Jefferson has undeniably been among the elite wide receivers in the NFL the last two seasons and was off to a blistering pace earlier this season. In fact, Jefferson recorded at least 149 yards receiving in 4 of the first five games this season. However, Jefferson went down in week 6 with a hamstring injury, which caused the Vikings’ star receiver to be placed on the injury reserve. Jefferson is eligible to return this week after sitting the mandatory four games on the injury reserve. However, Head Coach Kevin O’Connell stated that Jefferson would not be ready for this Sunday’s match-up against the Saints and would likely need at least another week as he continues to path to a full recovery.

New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Analysis

Obviously not having Jefferson back this week is not ideal for the Vikings offense especially after the loss of RB Cam Akers last week to an Achilles injury. While RB Alexander Mattison has been the starter throughout the season, Akers appeared to be slowly taking over the backfield. As a result, the Vikings will march forward without their major talents at the skill positions. Against a tough New Orleans defensive front, the Vikings will likely have to rely on QB Joshua Dobbs and this Vikings receiving corps that is now led by rookie WR Jordan Addison. Despite Dobbs’ success last week, he was mediocre at best through the opening weeks of the season with Arizona. Needless to say, this will be a difficult challenge.

Meanwhile, New Orleans appears to have found a slimmer of momentum after picking up their 2nd straight win last week against the Chicago Bears. However, there are still growing concerns with the play of QB Derek Carr, who has looked wildly erratic in recent weeks. For this particular match-up, I don’t believe the Saints will need Carr to be at his best. The Saints’ rushing attack matches up well against Minnesota’s run defense, which means RB Alvin Kamara and TE Taysom Hill should get plenty of packages/opportunities to set the tone in the running game. Barring any complete offensive collapse and/or turnovers, I believe this match-up will favor the Saints.

New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Trends

• The Saints are 2-5 ATS in the last seven games.
• The Saints have hit the “under” in 13 of the last 15 games.
• The Saints are 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the Vikings.
• The Saints have hit the “under” in 9 of the last ten games on the road.
• The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in the last six games.
• The Vikings have hit the “under” in six of the last seven games.
• The Vikings are 5-1 SU in the last six games.
• The Vikings have hit the “over” in 10 of the last 14 games against New Orleans.

New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Prediction

Neither one of the two teams is currently playing great football. However, New Orleans is much closer to putting complete efforts together on both sides of the ball. At this time, the Saints have the better team, personnel, and match-up advantage going into this Sunday’s showdown. As a result, I think the Saints are the higher percentage play this week!

Jay’s Pick: Take the Saints -2.5

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