New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers MNF Pick
New Orleans Saints (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Monday, September 18, 7:15 PM EST
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: NO -3 / Car +3 (Make this the week you start saving money! Stop betting games at -110 odds! Start laying only -105 TODAY at BetAnySports! You’ll be so much happier!)
Over/Under Total: 40.5
The Saints head to Carolina for a week 2 division battle with the Panthers. This game is part of a Monday Night Football double-header, with BOVADA.LV making the Saints 3-point road favorites and putting the over/under at 40.5. I think the Saints are the right side, even laying points on the road. Here is the handicap.
The Panther Offense Is Not Ready For Prime Time
Number 1 overall pick Bryce Young made his NFL debut last week against the Falcons and learned that it’s a big step from college to the NFL. Young averaged just 3.8 yards on his 38 attempts and threw two interceptions, though he did throw his first NFL score. Panther wide receivers caught just eight passes for only 68 yards, which will not win you many games in the NFL. The running attack was efficient, totaling 154 yards. The offense doesn’t have any big-time playmakers, and it showed in Atlanta. Young has all of the tools to be a great quarterback, but with the supporting cast he lines up with, Young will be forced to lead 12 to 15 play drives to score points. The offensive line is not good enough to continuously win on these long drives, which creates negative plays and again makes it hard to get points. This showed on Sunday against a good Falcon defense, but Carolina won the time of possession battle 35 minutes to 25 minutes and still came away with only 10 points. I think this week they face an even tougher defense, and I could see them repeating their 10-point performance.
This Saint defense is the typical Dennis Allen unit. They are physical and aim to put constant pressure on their opponent. They went toe-to-toe with a tough Titan offense in Week 1 and kept them out of the end zone, though they did allow five field goals. I know the Titan offense isn’t anything special, but they are better at running back, wide receiver, and currently quarterback than the Panthers. Tennessee could only manage 104 yards on the ground, and I would expect the Panthers to have less success this week. Marcus Lattimore was on his A-game last week and can easily shut down one side of the field for New Orleans, while Allen calls up exotic blitzes that will challenge the rookie quarterback. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see two more picks from Young this week as he learns the ropes in the NFL.
New Orleans Offense Will Do Enough
The Saints didn’t exactly put on a dynamic offensive performance in their game with the Titans, but they came through when they had to. Derek Carr had a strong performance in his first game with New Orleans, completing 70% of his attempts for over 9 yards per attempt. The best thing he did was get the ball to Chris Olave as often as he could. Olave is blossoming into one of the premier receivers in the NFL and turned ten targets into eight catches for 112 yards in Week 1. The running game struggled against the Titans, but Tennessee is hard for anyone to run against. Look for New Orleans to try to get Jamaal Williams going on the ground in this one and for the Saints to rebound on the ground this week against an easier Panther front. This will open up the passing game, and Carr will continue to strike to Olave.
The Panther defense had a rough start to 2023, giving up 24 points to a Falcon offense that only ran 48 offensive plays, and only attempted 18 passes. Carolina will see a more common NFL attack in week 2, which will make life a lot harder for them. The Panthers knew going into Atlanta that the Falcons wanted to run and that they are not a very good passing team, but they couldn’t stop the Falcons when the chips were down. Atlanta averaged 5 yards per rushing attempt and scored twice on the ground, and Falcon QB Desmond Ridder threw only three incomplete passes. I don’t think the Saints offense is dynamic, but they have a big advantage against this Panther D.
The Saints Won’t Beat Themselves
Young and new Carolina coach Frank Reich are looking for their first win as a tandem in the NFL. While Young is getting acclimated to the higher level of play, it will be hard to win if their opponent doesn’t shoot themselves in the foot with the talent on this roster. Carolina couldn’t force a turnover on defense and recorded only one play longer than 20 yards on offense. Look for the Saints to exploit the weak Carolina roster this week. Carr will take care of the ball, their backs won’t fumble, and Allen will be willing to punt because he knows his Carolina will struggle to sustain long drives. The Saint defense will not give up big plays, and keep pressuring Young until he makes a mistake. Young and Carolina will have to find a way to beat the Saints, and I don’t see the talent on their roster to get there.
Play The Saints On The Road
This is the home opener for Carolina, so the atmosphere will make Young more comfortable and motivate the Panthers, but until Young and this squad proves they can win (or cover) a game, we are going to need a lot more points to back them. Lay the short spread and buy a Saint ticket on Monday Night. Bet your MNF picks for FREE all month by scoring a massive 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at BetUS Sportsbook!
