New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Pick 11/28/19

New Orleans Saints (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS)

NFL Week 13

Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, November 28, 2019 at 8:20PM EST

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

TV: NBC

Point Spread: NO -6.5/ATL +6.5 (5Dimes – Lay -105 on sides/totals instead of -110!)

Over/Under Total: 50

The New Orleans Saints battle the Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving on Thursday Night Football. This NFC South battle should be a good game, considering the result of their first affair a few weeks back. The Falcons used that win over the Saints to start a little mini-spurt that came to a halt last week in a humbling 35-22 loss at home to the Bucs. In their second game of a three-week homestand, they look for better this time around. But into town comes a 9-2 Saints team that had started to cook once again with Drew Brees warming up and coming off a big game in a 34-31 win over the Panthers when the offense took over late over a game Carolina bunch. Who is going to cover this week?

Disregard Part I?

Yes and no. When a two-touchdown dog wins by 17, something weird is afoot. And aberrations in this league really aren’t aberrations at all, with the overall volatility this season seemingly higher than most. Everything went right for the Falcons, as they parlayed what was modest offense into maximum points. And whenever the Saints seemed to be making headway, a big play or key stop kept New Orleans stuck in bayou quicksand.

Still, some things actually made sense. What might be a highly-compromised Saints’ offensive line, it gives rise to some of the playmaking potential the Falcons’ defense possesses. We saw it manifest last time, with Grady Jarrett, Vic Beasley, and Adrian Clayborn often menacing Brees. The best part of the Atlanta “D” in their run-defense did a good job in that game. With Brees more warmed up since returning from injury and a healthier Alvin Kamara, along with dynamic Michael Thomas, and a ton of other weapons, will all the stars line up for Atlanta this week?

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Revenge Factor or Not Really?

On one hand, losing not long ago to the Falcons could give the Saints a little extra edge and urgency that they otherwise wouldn’t have had if they just beat Atlanta as anticipated. But when teams that are trying to win the Super Bowl play 3-8 teams, it’s not really about that. When the Saints look back on this season, how they fared against Atlanta won’t be in the discussion. So they may be shot out of a cannon this week, but it might not be based on them needing to even the score with the Falcons.

What Makes it Hard to Take ATL

This one comes at home, but with one win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season, how much does it really matter? The Falcons offense has been rendered into a very one-dimensional one with a run-game that rarely makes an impact and an offensive line that hasn’t hit their stride. And now that one dimension and the best thing to wield against a Saints’ defense is reduced and that’s the Falcons aerial-game. With Austin Hooper out and Julio Jones listed as questionable with a bum shoulder, it doesn’t paint a very rosy picture for the Falcons. Their underachieving defense was eaten up by Jameis Winston on Sunday and could be up against it this week.

The Saints can really hammer the run on defense and have seen that become a team-asset. With Cameron Jordan rushing the passer and Marcus Williams and his four picks, they can wield this big-play element on an Atlanta offense that makes its share of mistakes. Matt Ryan’s stat-line is very unlike him and where it didn’t cost them last time, it could this week. Sure, the Saints are sitting pretty at 9-2, but with five teams in the conference at 8-3 or better, they can’t take their foot off the gas even a little bit.

In addition, the Falcons looked awful on Sunday on both sides of the ball. With 4 of 16 third-down conversions, most drives just died a slow death. Watching Chris Godwin go haywire on this group makes one wonder what Saints receiver Michael Thomas has in store. Though it didn’t manifest in points, he had 152 yards against this defense in the first game. After such a good mini-run there, on Sunday it looked like reality had set in for Atlanta, as a team that nearly won the Bowl three years ago is in the midst of another lost season, possibly with a lame-duck coach.

Still Leaning Dog

Even as the Saints have become the class of the division over the last few seasons, a bottomed-out Atlanta team has still managed to stay in the ballpark against their rivals. In some of these divisional rivalries, what exists on paper, has a strange way of not resonating in actuality as some would forecast. Again, this might not mean a ton to the Saints, who have bigger dreams this season, but for Atlanta, it means a lot. Just the fact that the first point spread between these two was off by 31 points attests to a certain kookiness in these games. And this one could go according to the script, but something tells me Atlanta can hang in there, whether it be a hidden matchup quirk they benefit from, a Saints’ O-line that could be missing both tackles, or just the fact that they’re home on Thanksgiving.

Take the Home Dog

Even the point spread of the Saints favored by 6.5 points seems screwy like they’re trying to entice Saints’ money from those playing a revenge angle that might not even be there. Again, the Falcons getting walloped here wouldn’t register much shock, as they are, after all, a 3-8 team. I just see enough big plays on both sides of the ball allowing Atlanta to nick the cover at home.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Atlanta Falcons plus 6.5 points. Bet this game for FREE by depositing $100 and getting a $100 FREE BET at GTBets!