New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Week 2 Pick

New England Patriots (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
When: Sunday, September 15th, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium – Miami, FL
TV: CBS

Point Spread: NE -16.5 / MIA +16.5 (Bovada) Total: 47

Takeaways From Week One

The Patriots may have put together the most impressive win of Week One before a prime-time audience when they demolished the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers and didn’t even allow the Black and Yellow to score one touchdown. The final tally from Foxboro was 33-3 with New England covering as a 5.5-point favorite with ease. What can we say about what happened to the Miami Dolphins other than it was mayhem and destruction to the “nth degree”. Miami closed as just a seven-point underdog to the visiting Baltimore Ravens but wouldn’t have even covered if they were granted six times that amount. Baltimore lit up Miami by a score of 59-10 in what was a record-breaking first half of football for The Birds.

How the Public is Betting the New England-Miami Game

From the open money has begun to pour in on the defending champs as 80% of the public like the Patriots here as the double-digit favorite. As a result, the line has risen by two full points from the Pats spotting 14.5 initially to the Fins.

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The Historicals

Though Miami was on the receiving end of a thrashing on Sunday, the last time these two teams met they were the benefactors of miraculous circumstances. In the previous meeting between the Patriots and Dolphins, the “Miami Miracle” resulted in a shocking 34-33 upset of the Pats by the Fins by virtue of a touchdown on the last play of the game through a series of laterals that culminated with Miami Running Back Kenyon Drake finding the end zone in the most inexplicable of fashions. Miami has been a perpetual thorn in New England’s side as they have split the last four meetings with their divisional foes with two wins each. Both wins came in Miami.

Betting Trends

There will be an emphasis on the home-field advantage from a trend perspective as the Home Team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four contests. In particular, New England is not a profitable choice in Miami as they have covered just once in their previous seven trips to the Sunshine State.

Injury Concerns

While there are no key injury concerns to report for either side, Wide Receiver Antonio Brown is expected to make his New England debut after being claimed off of waivers on Saturday. Coupling AB’s addition to New England against this vulnerable Miami squad only makes the prognostication for this game seem only grimmer for the Dolphins.

Why We Like The Dolphins To Cover

Some betting analysts have said that it may take at least 17 points before any professionals touch this game. Why is this? Because they are looking to take advantage of a clear-cut overreaction by the general public. The Patriots looked unstoppable on Sunday Night Football against a reputable opponent. Combining this with the addition of a marquee talent in Antonio Brown will only stir the frenzy further. On the flip side, everyone and their extended family heard about the beat-down Miami took at the hands of the Ravens. On paper, this looks to be a battle of the best versus the worst. The Cream of the Crop versus the Bottom of the Barrel and everyone is going to want to get aboard with the Patriots here as a result. The problem is backers can expect to pay a premium to do so and spot more points to get a piece of the New England pie. There is little doubt in my mind that this line will continue to move until it attracts some action on Miami which means taking the Dolphins creates a better chance of a cover and quite frankly you are getting them with enhanced value.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Miami Dolphins +16.5

Do I think there will be another miracle or stunt by the Dolphins? No. New England will win this game, but I do not think this will be another 59-10 walloping. The Patriots should get through this game will relatively little resistance from Miami. With such hefty lumber to spot, comes a greater risk for a backdoor cover for New England takers. Should the Pats get the best of Miami early, there is no reason to suspect that if New England were ahead by a few scores that they would not pull their first team if it were late in the second half. This opens the door for a junk-time touchdown and many ripped tickets. I’d back the Dolphins by virtue of this narrative alone. However, I also see this as a prime opportunity to take advantage of an overreaction by the public to both the best and worst performances of Week One in a fell swoop. I am calling for the Patriots to win this one by a score of 31-16.