New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Odds & Pick

Week 5 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, October 10, 2021 at 1PM EDT

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

TV: CBS

Point Spread: NE -9/HOU +9 (Betanysports – Stop wasting your money by betting on games at -110 odds! You could be saving $5 per $100 you’re trying to win by making the switch to -105 odds!)

Over/Under Total: 40

The New England Patriots take on the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on Sunday in AFC action. This battle of 1-3 teams features two squads coming off rough weeks looking to make it better on Sunday. For the Texans, at least they are at home, in what appears to be a half-decent spot against a 1-3 Pats team. Last week couldn’t have gone any worse, as the Texans were blanked 40-0 by the Bills. Maybe things will go better this week against the Pats, who fell 19-17 to the Bucs on Sunday in their second straight loss. Who can cover the spread in Texas on Sunday?

Hard to Get Behind Texas

Granted, the Pats aren’t exactly doing great, but they are competitive in spots. Houston losing their last two games 69-9 has painted an ugly portrait of a team that might not be cut out for this. They’ve gone from Deshaun Watson to Tyrod Taylor and now to Davis Mills, who on Sunday was miserable with 87 yards through the air and four picks. Where they turn now is anyone’s guess. It’s just that it was hard enough with Watson or Taylor, but now they’re really up against it offensively. Brandin Cooks is a fine receiver. Getting Anthony Miller back should help. But that abysmal line, poor QB play, and a run-game that is in the dumps might be too much to overcome.

Granted, they did spank Jacksonville and remained remotely competitive with the Browns in week two. But with Taylor going down, they really fell off the map at quarterback. Mark Ingram and David Johnson aren’t making an impact in the backfield. The defense is all over the place. There is not one thing this team does well. There might be occasional bright spots here and there, but as far as there being a thing they can apply to good effect throughout a game, it just isn’t there. They can’t run the ball, and they can’t throw the ball. They can’t protect upfront. They can’t rush the passer. They can’t stop the run or the pass. Their defense makes precious few big plays. You add it all up, and you have a really disheartening situation in Houston heading into week 5.

If looking hard for a silver lining, you’d have to look really hard. Perhaps one is there. One is that after playing Buffalo, Carolina, and Cleveland, maybe a 1-3 Patriots team is more in the Texans’ wheelhouse. They are at home facing another offense with a rookie QB and certain offensive issues. Houston winning their first game and giving Cleveland a little go suggests a form they can possibly revert to. It’s just hard without NFL-level quarterbacking, in addition to a general lack of overall firepower and a defense short on difference-makers and also facing injuries. It makes winning games and covering spreads in the NFL a tall order. Still, for all their issues, they’ve still covered two out of four spreads, the same rate that New England has been covering spreads. So we mustn’t overstate the case.

Good Bounce-Back Spot for the Pats?

In a word—yes. After getting beat up against the Saints and then getting nipped at the wire in a last-second FG against the defending Super Bowl champs, Houston would appear to be a context in which they can shine. Despite the losses, the added exposure and experience looks to have Mac Jones playing a little better, as the rookie QB is still trying to get his bearings. Losing James White from the backfield hurts, as does their general inability to run the ball. Having a good back upon which Jones can rely is a luxury they don’t have now. Aerially, however, he does have support with two good tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, along with good receiving talent like Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, and Nelson Agholor.

It might actually be the New England defense that makes the biggest imprint on this game. With the Houston offense struggling so mightily, I’d look for the excellent New England pass-defense to really put a hurt on the Texans aerially. There isn’t much to contain, as Houston is down to just a few viable aerial options. And if that doesn’t work, the prospects of them getting either David Johnson, Melvin Ingram, or Phillip Lindsay untracked seems like a dicey proposition, to say the least.

More Picks: Get Loot’s Fish vs. Bucs Predicted Point Spread Winner >>>

Scenarios of Which to Be Fearful

For a New England backer in this spot, there is a sneaking feeling that this game could be a grind. The Patriots’ offense doesn’t always fire, and that sets up for a possible slowly-churning type of game where points are precious. A Mac Jones miscue or two in that context could put Houston squarely in this game. Maybe basing our view on Houston based on the last two weeks is too short of a window to make any concrete conclusions. And if the Houston from the first two weeks materializes in this spot, it’s not going to be an easy cover for the Pats.

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

The Patriots in this current incarnation are not the ideal candidate to be laying a number like this on the road. But despite having the same W-L record and having both covered two spreads, I see New England as being a clear cut above. Houston is almost taking on the look of a broken team. And while noticing a team is on its back and betting against them is not very exclusive insight and has backfired time, and again, I have a hard time rationalizing how Houston can actually thrive in this game. I’m taking the Patriots in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the New England Patriots minus 9 points. Bet your week 5 NFL picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!