New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Pick: Lay the points?

New England Patriots (3-11 SU, 3-10-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (7-7 SU, 5-8-1 ATS)

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec 24, 7:20 PM EST

Where: Mile High Stadium, Denver

TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: NE +6/Den -6 (Move the line up to 20 points using th MASSIVE football teasers at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: Pats +220/Horses -270

Over/Under Total: 34.5

The New England Patriots travel to the Mile-High City this week to take on the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football. Denver still has an outside chance at making the playoffs, while the season can’t be over fast enough for the Pats. BOVADA.LV has made the Broncos 6-point favorites and set the game total at 34.5. The play is to lay the points with Denver. Here are three reasons.

Denver’s Offense Is Functional

Denver’s offense and Russell Wilson won’t be confused with any of the John Elway championship squads that wore the Broncos uniform. But over the course of the 2023 season, they have evolved into a unit that knows what they do best and grinds it out over the course of a game. Sean Payton leans on his running backs – primarily Javonte Williams – to keep the team on schedule and sprinkles in a little bit of Wilson cooking to Courtland Sutton to keep the defense honest. Denver is 11th in the league at 4.2 yards per carry, and they have topped 100 rushing yards in eight of their last ten games. While Payton will be dedicated to the run, this week Wilson will have to be more involved using the passing game as part of the ball control strategy. Look for Samaje Perine and Jaleel McGlaughlin to join Williams and work in the passing game out of the backfield on screens and underneath routes to keep the chains moving. The backs will have an advantage against New England’s linebackers, who have struggled to shut down RBs and gave up seven catches for 83 yards and two scores last week against the Chiefs. Denver has turned the ball over six times in their last four games so they will stress ball control, but they have scored over 20 points in five of their last seven games, and I think they will get there again.
The New England defense will be a challenge for Payton and Wilson. The Pats allow the fewest yards per carry in the league, so it’s unlikely the Broncos can run it at will. New England’s pass defense is not nearly as good as their run defense, ranking middle of the pack in passing yards allowed but only 29th in sacks and takeaways. Wilson, with time can take advantage of this defense, but it probably won’t be with Sutton. Belichick will shut down Sutton, so the backs will have to step up, and Jerry Jeudy or Marvin Mims will have a chance to burn the Pats on the outside. I think it will be a slog with a lot of punts for the Broncos, but they will wear down New England, probably get a couple of short fields, and find the end zone on multiple occasions.

Denver Will Blitz Zappe Relentlessly

Bailey Zappe has mostly looked like a competent backup quarterback during his starts over the last three weeks. He has thrown four touchdowns against two interceptions, but he lacks the ability to create plays, arm strength to drive the ball down the field, and has no playmakers that can roll up yards after the catch. His worst trait is taking too many sacks, nine in the past three games; that will be a problem this week when Denver brings the house on a regular basis. Ezekiel Elliot proved last week he couldn’t repeat his 140 yard Week 14 performance, totaling only 46 yards on 16 touches, with a long of seven yards. Rhamondre Stevenson may return, but a hobbled Stevenson or a broken-down Elliot will not be able to move the ball and keep the pressure off Zappe.

The Denver defense has played better as the season has progressed – with the exception of the dud last week in Detroit. They rank 5th in the league in takeaways, including 18 in their last six wins since Week 7. Patrick Surtain II is a legit shut-down corner that will be able to shut down one side of the field and keep Zappe off balance. Denver has struggled against elite rushing attacks but has held their own recently against the Chargers and Texans. DC Vance Joseph loves to attack and will show Zappe exotic looks that will keep him confused in his pre-snap reads, which will lead to multiple sacks throughout the game. Zappe and the Pats managed just over 200 total yards last week, and I am looking for a repeat performance against the Broncos D this Sunday night.

Denver Has A Playoff Chance

Who would have thought after their Week 3 debacle against the Dolphins when Denver stood at 0-3 that they would have a chance at making the playoffs? But they sit at 7-7, with games against the three worst teams in the AFC – Patriots, Chargers, and Raiders for the chance to get to 10-7. They would still need help, but for this week, they will be on their A-game to rebound from last week’s dud and give themselves the chance to make the tournament. Payton’s team has been one of the most fundamentally sound teams, and he makes teams beat him rather than make stupid plays or decisions that cost his team the game. New England has run out of hope, and with rumors flying that Belichick will not return, his ability to motivate the troops is diminishing. Mile-High Stadium has one of the best home-field advantages in the league, and it will be rowdy for a chance to take down the Patriots.

Lay The Points

Six points is a lot to lay in an NFL game, and it’s a little hard to understand why the Broncos should be laying six to any NFL team. But the Patriots are an unmotivated, horrible team that has not covered one spread this year in a game that they lost. They have the worst ATS record in the league, and I think it worsens this Sunday Night. Lay the points with the Broncos.

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