New England Patriots(6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)at Cleveland Browns (2-5 SU,3-4 ATS), Week9 NFL, 1 p.m. EST, Sunday,November 7, 2010, Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio. TV: CBS – HD (Regional)
byJeff Hochmanof JH-Sportsline.com
Betting Odds:NE -5/Cle +5
Over/Under Total: 44
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The New England Patriots bring in theNFL’s best record when theytravel to Cleveland for this Week nine matchup at the “Dawg” Pound.
New England defeated the Vikings 28-18, as 5.5-point home chalk last Sunday in a strange game. They won despite getting out-gained by 48 yards, and getting five fewer First-Downs than Minnesota.BenJarvusGreen-Ellis ran 17 times for 112 yards to give the Patriots their fifth straight victory. Tom Brady completed 16-of -27 passes for 240 yards, including an ad-libbed touchdown pass to BenTate that gave New England the lead for good with just over8 minutes left in the third quarter. The pass defense held former Patriot (and Viking)Randy Mossto just one catch for 8 yards.It washis first trip back to Foxborough since he talked himself out of town on Oct. 6th, 2010.
The Patriots are just 2-5 ITS (in the stats) this season. They win because they have a great quarterback and head coach.
The Cleveland Browns shocked the Saints two weeks ago with a somewhat fluky30-17 victory, as 12-point road underdogs. If you looked at the stats from the game you would have thought the Saints won with ease. New Orleans out-gained Cleveland 394-210, had 23 First-Downs compared to 10 for Cleveland, and held the ball for 11 more minutes than the winner. Drew Brees threw for over 350 yards, butthrew four costly interceptions, with two of them coming in the red zone. Marques Colston has his best game of the season with 10 receptions for 112 yards with one touchdown, but it was the opportunistic Browns stealingthe victory.
The Cleveland Browns are 1-6 ITS (in the stats) this season. The only game in which they won the stats was a 17-14opening week loss at Tampa Bay.
New England’s pass defense has looked awful at times this season, but I don’t expect Colt McCoy to have much success. Bill Belichick is amaster at designing game plans against rookie quarterbacks. The Patriots have the better offense in this game by far, but the Browns have the better defense in this matchup. The Browns are allowing 355 yards per game (20.3 ppg) while the Patriots allow 384 yards per game (22.0 ppg).
It’s really hard to get excited about either squad,considering both teams are a combined3-11 ITS (in the stats) this season. Makes for some unpredictable outcomes.
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The Patriots are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in their last four head-to-head meetings. Back in 2007, Tom Brady threw for 265 and three touchdowns leading New England to a 34-17 win as 15-point home favorites. Four years later the odds-makers only have NE as -5 point road chalk. Seems kinda low to me. Tom Brady has thrown for 1,602 with 12 touchdowns and only four Interceptions. He is completing 65% of his passes and has a solid96.6QB rating. Colt McCoy will see a lot of looks in this game that he has never seen before. Peyton Hillis should be able to run for at least 80 yards with one touchdown, but it won’t be enough. The Patriots are a +7 in turnover differential,while the Browns are dead even.
The Patriots are 12-3 SU and 8-6 ATS when playing a team with a losing record. The Browns are 4-13 SU and 9-7 ATS when playing a team with a winning record.The Browns are 5-7 SU and 8-3 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England’s last 9 games. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: New England Patriots -5.
I like the better quarterback and head coach in this one. I will trust that NE will play good defense against a rookie quarterback. New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland. Lay the five points!