New England Patriots (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS)
NFL Week 5
Date and Time: October 6, 1:00 PM EST
Where: Paul Brown Stadium
TV: CBS
by Jeff Hochman, Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: NE Pickem/CIN Pickem
Over/Under Total: 44.5
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The New England Patriots will attempt to remain unbeaten when they travel west to take on the Cincinnati Bengals in this Week 5 match-up. New England defeated the Falcons on Sunday Night Football 30-23 as 3-point road dogs. The Pats were out-gained by just 9 yards and are 2-2 ITS (in the stats) this season. The Bengals were flat in losing 17-6 as 3.5-point road chalk to the motivated Browns. Cincinnati was out-gained by 70 yards and are also 2-2 ITS this season.
Something has gotta give in this game. The Patriots have gone 16-4 SU and 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 road games and will be looking for their sixth consecutive road win. On the flip side, the home team should be focused coming off that ugly loss last week. The Bengals are 4-0 SU after a loss in their last four tries. The Patriots offense isn’t as explosive as it once was, but it is doing enough because the defense is much better. However, the injury to nose tackle Vince Wilfork will be felt at some point this season. He is a future Hall of Famer and one of the best nose tackles in all of football. As good as the Pats have played on defense, the Bengals will enter this game as having the better stop unit. New England is allowing 346 yards per game while the Bengals are allowing 334. On offense, the Pats only have a 30 yard per game advantage over the Bengals.
This contest looks like a high-scoring game with plenty of big plays through the air. Yes, both teams have been good against the pass but when these two teams play there has been a lot of passing yards by both teams. New England is 7-1 SU in their last eight games against the Bengals. The Over 4-1 in their last five games with an average O/U line of 45. Can you tell where the Odds-makers got their O/U line this Week? The average total points scored in those five games is 52.6. I love the Over and will be one of my selections at the bottom of this page. Play it early if you like it too, as the O/U line will be going up.
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Both teams are expected to pick up the pace in this game. We have a great quarterback in Tom Brady and a good one in Andy Dalton. The numbers for both QB’s are quite similar.
Tom has thrown for 1014 yards, Andy has thrown for 1,003 yards. Tom is completing 58.9% of his passes. Andy is completing 63.5 % of his throws. Tom’s QBR is 87.4 while Andy checks in at 83.2. Tom’s yards per attempt is 6.42 while Andy is at 6.78. Wow, that’s pretty much the same guy.
Being undefeated you would probably guess that the Pats Special Teams was ranked high. You are right as they are No. 4 out of 32 teamsaccording to Football Outsiders. The Bengals check in at No. 10, which is pretty high for a .500 team. They have Denver No. 1, followed by Seattle, KC, NE, and surprisingly the Rams to round out the Top 5. The bottom five are Oakland, Washington, Houston, Philadelphia, and the Giants are last. I know that has nothing to do with this game but I thought you would like to know. The Bengals are ranked tied for 7th place in Red-Zone efficiency while the Pats are ranked 30th. This could be a huge advantage for the home team so keep an eye on this during the game.
The Pats are 8-1 ATS in the their 9 games in Week 5. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 5. The Over is 6-2 when the Bengals play at home off a loss in which they scored less than 7 points.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Cincinnati Bengals Pick em & OVER 44.5.
I like the Bengals at home coming off that ugly loss last Week. The Pats have a big game next week when they host the Saints. Look for this game to have plenty of yards gained by both teams and a total that reaches the high 40s or even low 50s. Check the weather as game day approaches.