New England Patriots(1-2SU,2-1ATS) vs.Buffalo Bills(2-1SU,2-1ATS)
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Bills vs. New England Patriots Pick.
NFL Week4
Date/Time:Sunday, September 30th, 1PM EST
Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
TV: CBS/DirecTV 708
byVesper Abadon,Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread:NE-4/BUF +4
Over/Under Total:51
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The Buffalo Bills are tied for first with the New York Jets in the AFC East while the New England Patriots have a losing record. It sounds strange, and while its true at this point in time, its too early for it to mean much. Now if the Bills can beat the Patriots in their upcoming Week 4 matchup, then there might be something worth talking about.
If I asked you which of those two teams has the better offense, youd more than likely say the Patriots, and I wouldnt blame you. But did you know that the two teams are actually putting up similar numbers? Check it out:
Total Yards Per Game: Patriots391/Bills371
Passing Yards Per Game: Patriots281.3/Bills193
Rushing Yards Per Game: Patriots109.7/Bills178
Points Scored This Season Patriots82/Bills87
As far as the passing game goes, no one would disagree that Tom Brady is an all-around better quarterback than Ryan Fitzpatrick. With that said, the Bills QB has twice as many touchdown passes (8-2) than Brady. Thats something worth considering.
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In the rushing department the Bills have been killing it as the NFLs leading rusher, C.J. Spiller, has carried 33 times for 308thats a 9.3 yards-per-carry averageand scored three touchdowns. Thats far and away better than the Pats Stevan Ridley, who has rushed 52 times for 233 yards (4.5-yard average) and a single touchdown. Unfortunately for the Bills, Spiller was carted off the field in their Week 3 matchup against the Cleveland Browns after suffering a shoulder injury. Luckily it turned out not to be overly serious, but whether or not he will be ready for the game against the Pats is uncertain, (Update: Spiller is OUT) though most people suggest hell sit out and allow Fred Jackson, who has been out with injury since Week 1, to shoulder the burden.
Interesting, the two teams are similarly matched on the defensive side of the ball, at least statistically. Now, it is worth pointing out that the Bills success has come against less-than-stellar teams like the Jets, Chiefs and Browns, while the Pats woes have come against upper-echelon teams like the Cardinals and Ravens. Swap those opponents and my bet is that those offensive and defensive numbers would be quite lopsided in the Patriots favor.
Vesper AbadonsPick to Cover the Point Spread: All signs indicate that this game will be a good one between two evenly matched teams. Ill admit that its hard to say that about the Bills when comparing them to the Patriots, but this is 2012 and head coach Chan Gailey and company are obviously doing something right up in Buffalo. Given the status of both teams run game, I think this will be a battle waged through the air. I’m not certain that either team can stop each other As far as who wins the game straight up and against the spread, that could very well come down to which team has the ball last. Whether that will be by a field goal or a touchdown is anybody’s guess. That’s why I’m taking the over 52, anticipating that this game may hit as high as 60 points. If forced to take a side, I’d bet on the Bills at +4.
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