New England at Miami Dolphins Point Spread Bet
New England Patriots (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (5-2, 5-2), 10/29/23
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Oct. 29
Where: Hard Rock Stadium
TV: CBS
Betting Odds
Point Spread: NE +9.5/MIA -9.5
Money Line: NE +370/MIA -480
Total: 47
Game Overview
The Dolphins are looking to bounce back from a tough loss last week while the Patriots are shooting for a second straight victory, heading into this AFC East rivalry bout Sunday afternoon in South Florida.
Miami’s favored by almost double-digits for this contest. Who do we like for our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 8 NFL betting market opened Miami at -10 over Buffalo, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then shaved that line to -9.5.
Patriots-Dolphins NFL Betting Preview
New England just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 29-25 upset of Buffalo last Sunday. The Patriots, catching 8.5 points, scored the first 10 points of the game and led 13-3 at the half. New England later fell down 25-22 with just under two minutes to go but drove 75 yards to a game-winning touchdown with 12 seconds left.
- The Patriots out-gained the Bills 364-339.
Four games ago New England lost to Dallas 38-3; then they lost to New Orleans 34-0; then they lost to Las Vegas 21-17. All of which makes last week’s winning effort seem a bit suspect.
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Meanwhile, Miami just suffered its second loss of this season, a 31-17 decision at Philadelphia last Sunday night. The Dolphins fell down 17-3 in the second quarter, then rallied to tie the game at 17-17 late in the third quarter. But Miami ran out of gas, gave up the next 14 points and could not respond.
- The Dolphins got out-gained by the Eagles 355-244 and lost time of possession by a 37:23 split.
Two weeks ago Miami beat Carolina 42-21 and three weeks ago they beat the Giants 31-16.
Basically, here’s who the Dolphins are; their five wins have come against teams with a combined record of 8-25 while their two losses are against teams who are 10-4.
Patriots-Dolphins Recent History
Miami owns the recent rivalry with New England, winning five of the last six meetings SU, going 6-0 ATS. The Dolphins took the first meeting between these teams this season 24-17 in Foxboro back in Week 2.
- Miami scored the first 10 points of that game, eventually out-gained the Patriots 389-288 and covered at -1.
NFL Betting Trends
New England is 27-30 SU, 26-30-1 ATS since Tom Brady left the scene.
Totals Report
The unders are 5-2 in Patriots games this season, which are averaging 40 total points.
The overs are 4-3 in Dolphins games this season, which, even when we throw out that crazy game against Denver, are averaging 57 points.
After going 9-4 last week the unders are 65-41 in the NFL this season.
The unders are 5-2 over the last seven meetings between these two teams.
Free NFL Betting Pick
This game sets up perfectly for one of our main NFL handicapping theories; what’s up one week is often down the next, and vice-versa. New England pulled an emotional upset on a hated rival last week; we consider the Patriots good candidates for a letdown this week. Meanwhile, Miami took a tough loss against a good team last week; we consider the Dolphins good candidates to bounce back this week. Also, Miami’s five wins this season, all vs. teams with losing records, came by an average score of 41-22. Also, the Dolphins own New England since Brady left. We’re giving the points with Miami Sunday.
