Monday Night Football Predictions: Raiders Battle Lions

Las Vegas Raiders (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS)

Date/Time: Monday, Oct 30, 8:15 PM EST

Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI.

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LV +8 / Det -8

Moneyline: LV +315 / Det -420

Over/Under Total: 451/2

The Raiders visit Motor City on Monday Night to take on the Lions in their second consecutive road game against NFC North opponents. Both of these teams are looking to bounce back from horrible week 7 showings, and BOVADA.LV is making the Lions 8-point favorites while setting the over/under at 451/2. I think the Lions are more likely to avenge last week’s performance to win and cover the number on MNF. Here are 3 reasons.

Detroit’s Offense Is Solid

The Lions’ offense was humbled last Sunday by the Ravens, but they have been on a roll this year. They rank in the top 5 in the league in points per game and yards per play. Jared Goff has elevated his game and proven that he can pick apart opposing defenses if he has time to throw. He has completed just under 70% of his passes for right around 8 yards per attempt. With speedster Jameson Williams joining Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, the Lions boast a very capable and diversified receiving corps. Detroit has one of the strongest running games in the NFL, but they will probably be without their lead back, David Montgomery, again this week as he rehabs his injured ribs. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs will step in to carry the load and provides more potential to break off big runs, but he is not as reliable to grind out 2 or 3 tough yards at the goal line or to get a key first down. However, the Lion attack starts with their top-shelf O-line that was embarrassed last week in Baltimore. Goff was constantly under duress before the game got out of hand, and the Ravens tallied five sacks on the day, while Goff had only gone down ten times in their previous six games. The line held their own earlier in the year against stout defensive lines, including Tampa Bay and Kansas City, so I think last week was just one of those games that started rough and quickly got out of hand. The competition is a lot softer this week, so look for all parts of the Lion offense to get back on track.

Las Vegas’ defense has reasonable numbers on the year, allowing 22 points per game and 5.1 yards per play, but other than star pass rusher Maxx Crosby, they do not have any high-level talent. The lowly Bears, with an undrafted rookie quarterback completely dominated the defense last week, converting 8 of 13 third downs on their way to 23 first downs, holding the ball for 34 minutes, and going 3 for 3 in the red zone. Vegas did not have a takeaway and only got past a mediocre Chicago line to sack Tyson Bagent twice. Vegas has only 5 takeaways on the season despite facing a string of mostly bad offenses this season, so other than splash plays by Crosby, the defense makes little impact. I think the Raiders’ defense gets run over this week, similar to how they got run over by the Bears. Detroit is better than the Bears in all facets on offense and should be sharp coming off last week’s dud. I think the Lion O-line will dominate in the trenches, opening holes for the running game and keeping Goff clean. Buffalo put up 38 on this Raider defense in week 2, the Bears put up 30 last week, and I could easily see 30 for Detroit on Monday night.

Josh McDaniels is considered an offensive mastermind, but the product he is putting on the field in 2023 isn’t showing it. The Raiders have only topped 20 points once this year, in week 6 against the Patriots. They are in the bottom 10 in points per game and yards per play, and despite having one of the premier runners in the league, they are in the bottom 2 in rushing yards per attempt. Jimmy Garoppolo was supposed to be the answer at quarterback, but he has been a turnover machine and has missed 2 games with injuries. His backups, Aidan O’Connell and Brian Hoyer, have combined for 6 turnovers in their 2 starts. Jimmy G is nursing a bad back, so he is questionable in Detroit, but even if he goes, it’s not likely he will be 100%. Star receiver Davante Adams grows more frustrated every week with the inability of the offense to make plays, and star running back Josh Jacobs can’t get anything going. Between bad quarterback play and a poor offensive line, there is little reason to expect the Raiders to light up the scoreboard this week.

Detroit’s defense was really the unit that got taken advantage of last week by the Ravens. Baltimore scored touchdowns on their first 4 drives of the games and never looked back. Unlike the Detroit offense that I think just had an off game, I think the hype around the Detroit defense got a little too high. They are a good unit, especially in the front 7, but they are not elite. That doesn’t mean they won’t look elite this week against Las Vegas. Detroit really struggles against mobile quarterbacks, which won’t be in play this week. Look for Vegas to struggle again to move the ball and sustain drives, no matter who is behind center. They won’t be able to run again, and none of their QBs can get hot and take over a game, so it’s hard to see how they keep up with Detroit this week.

Better Coach And Better Lines

Lions Coach Dan Campbell and McDaniels both have tried to build their teams to be tough-minded and physical groups. Campbell has mostly succeeded while McDaniels has not, and it will be on display this week. When teams need to rebound from a bad loss, they will want to do what they do best. Detroit will be able to lean on their offensive line and running game to set the tone for the night. With the running game going, they will be able to make shot plays to their downfield weapons. Vegas has no strength to rely on, and they won’t be able to match the physicality of Detroit. I don’t see how they go into a hostile dome with a bad offensive line and stay close to the Lions. McDaniels couldn’t rally the troops against the 1-5 Bears; it doesn’t look good this week.

Lay The Points With The Lions.

It’s hard to lay a big number with the Lions, but we would need more than 8 points to play the Raiders.