MNF Picks: L.A. Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

L.A. Rams (4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) v. Green Bay Packers (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS)
NFL Week 15
When: Monday, December 19 at 8:15 pm
Where: Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Watch: ESPN

Point Spread: LAR +6.5/GB -6.5
Over/Under Total: 39.5

Heading into this season, a Week 15 tilt between Green Bay and L.A. would have been a likely preview of a future playoff matchup, but neither team has lived up to expectations, and there is little to play for this Monday night. The Packers’ postseason chances improved during their bye week, but they are still three games back in the loss column of the current #7 seed. Green Bay’s front office has stated that this will not be a dress rehearsal for Jordan Love, so expect Aaron Rodgers to finish out the season, and he remains fifth in the league with 22 touchdown passes. Baker Mayfield played an unlikely hero in the Rams’ Week 14 win against the Raiders as he went from cut to clutch in the span of 72 hours. He will get another start this week and will have to fight the elements as well as the GB defense, as game-time temperatures are forecasted to be in the single digits with the potential for below-zero windchill.

Trend Watch

L.A. has been a reliable bet late in the season with 13 wins against the spread in their last 17 games in December, but they have just one ATS win in their last five conference games. They also have one ATS win in their last five when playing a team with a losing record. Green Bay is just 1-4 against the spread in their last five at Lambeau Field and has an identical 1-4 ATS record when playing against a team with a losing record. The Rams have lost four straight against the spread when playing in Green Bay. The Under is 5-1 in the last six road games for L.A., but most of Green Bay’s trends favor the Over, including four straight wins overall and four of the last five at home. Heading into the mid-week, nearly 60% of the public money is on the Rams at +6.5, with 58% of bets on the Over.

Lost Season

The Rams appeared to have a championship hangover early, and they were never able to get on track as injuries mounted to key players. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Allen Robinson have all hit the IR, and Aaron Donald has battled a bad ankle and could miss Monday’s contest. Those are Pro Bowl level contributors, and L.A. has struggled to make up for their loss, especially as depth players have also missed time. The Rams lost six in a row prior to the comeback win against the Raiders, but even a few wins on the way out will still have this season among the worst title defenses in NFL history. The offense ranks 31st in total yards, 30th in rushing, and 29th in scoring at 16.8 points per game. Cooper Kupp (75-812-6) leads all receiving categories despite playing in just nine games, TE Tyler Higbee is the leading receiver on the field come Monday, and he is averaging 8.8 yards per reception. Ben Skowronek had a career day last week with seven receptions for 89 yards. Look for Mayfield to look his way alongside Van Jefferson, who caught the game-winning touchdown against Las Vegas. Cam Akers leads the team with a paltry 376 rushing yards and averages just 3.3 yards per tote. The defense hasn’t been lights out, but they are top-5 against the run and sit 16th in scoring, allowing 22.8 points per game. The takeaways are way down from last year’s total, with no player logging more than two interceptions, and the Rams are 23rd in sacks with 26. Aaron Donald is tied for the team lead with five sacks, but he is in danger of ending a streak of double-digit sack totals that goes back to 2017.

End of an Era?

Hidden in the woes of this season for Green Bay is a rising possibility that we are seeing the last games for Aaron Rodgers as a Packer. The front office has almost no good options when it comes to Rodgers’ growing cap ramifications, but a trade or retirement in 2023 saves about 28 million over the same transaction in 2024. That could be the reason why the team has #12 playing out the string instead of giving Jordan Love an extended look. Rodgers continued his dominance of the Bears in Week 13, and rookie Christian Watson continued his meteoric rise with his eighth touchdown in just the last four games. Watson is now in a dead-heat with Garrett Wilson for offensive rookie of the year and Watson’s 16.0 yards per catch trails only Jaylen Waddle’s 17 yards per reception. Aaron Jones has a bad shin and is questionable for Monday, but A.J. Dillon is coming off his best game of the season with 93 yards and a touchdown. Allen Lazard and TE Robert Tonyan lead GB receivers with 45 catches each, and the offense has averaged 27.2 points per game since Watson broke out as the lead playmaker. The defense continues to slide and now sits second to last in rushing yards allowed and 21st in scoring at 23.2 points per game. This defense was supposed to be a championship unit, but injuries have been problematic, and Green Bay is likely without Darnell Savage and Krys Barnes. Green Bay is 26th in sacks, and Rashan Gary leads the team with six despite not having played since Week 9.

Green Bay Puts L.A. on Ice
This one could be a whole different story if played in L.A. or even if this was going to be a generic cold-weather game, but this is going to be a brutal game for both teams with temps hovering around zero come game time. Given the forecast, Green Bay has the most effective individual playmaker in A.J. Dillon. They have featured him in poor conditions before, and he is playing his best ball of the year with back-to-back games with 100+ scrimmage yards and a score. Mayfield has seen some bad weather games from his days in Cleveland, but the Rams’ offense is not designed to produce in poor weather, and they don’t have their best players available even if they come up with a good plan to execute in the cold. Rodgers knows how to handle these games, and the Green Bay crowd will still be fired up at Lambeau. I think Watson’s scoring streak comes to an end, but the Packers use their ability to run the ball and control the clock en route to a 23-13 win.

Pick to Cover the Spread: Green Bay