Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Betting Preview

Game Information

Teams: Buffalo Bills (3-2) at New York Jets (2-3)
Date: October 14, 2024
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium
TV: TBD

Betting Odds

The Rundown

The Buffalo Bills (3-2) travel to MetLife Stadium to face their division rivals, the New York Jets (2-3), in a crucial AFC East matchup. Both teams are looking to bounce back from recent losses and gain ground in the competitive division. The low total of 41 points suggests a defensive battle, with Rich Crew leaning towards the UNDER in this contest. Key injuries and recent defensive performances could play a significant role in the outcome.

Team Analysis

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have had an up-and-down start to the season, currently sitting at 3-2. Their offense, led by quarterback Josh Allen, has shown flashes of brilliance but has also struggled with consistency. Buffalo’s defense remains one of the league’s best, allowing just 17 points per game (6th in the NFL).

Injury Watch: Leading receiver Khalil Shakir may return, but his effectiveness could be limited. Running back James Cook, a crucial component of the offense, is dealing with a toe injury. While expected to play, his performance may be impacted.

New York Jets

The Jets have faced challenges this season, posting a 2-3 record. Their defense has been the team’s strength, ranking 2nd in total yards allowed (255.8 per game) and 6th in points allowed (17.0 per game). However, their offense has struggled to find its footing, ranking near the bottom of the league in several key categories.

The Jets’ rushing attack has been particularly ineffective, averaging just 80 yards per game with a 3.6 yards per carry average. This weakness may limit their ability to exploit the Bills’ run defense, which has been vulnerable at times.

Key Player Focus

Josh Allen (Bills QB): Allen’s performance will be crucial for the Bills’ success. In his last five games, he’s thrown for 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, showcasing his ability to protect the ball. However, his completion percentage has been inconsistent, ranging from 55.2% to 78.3% in recent games.

James Cook (Bills RB): Cook’s effectiveness could be a game-changer for the Bills’ offense. If his toe injury limits his performance, it may impact Buffalo’s ability to maintain a balanced attack.

Jets’ Defensive Line: The Jets’ front seven will need to pressure Allen and disrupt the Bills’ passing game. With Buffalo allowing 1.2 sacks per game (3rd best in the league), this matchup will be key in determining the game’s outcome.

Statistical Breakdowns

Defensive Matchup

This game features two of the league’s top defenses, with both teams allowing just 17 points per game. The Jets have been particularly stingy against the pass, allowing only 136.6 yards per game (2nd in NFL). Their recent performances have been impressive, holding opponents to 253 or fewer total yards in each of their last three games. Additionally, the Jets have limited four of their five opponents to 171 or fewer passing yards, showcasing their elite pass defense.

Buffalo’s defense has been more balanced but equally effective in preventing scores. However, their run defense has shown some vulnerabilities, which the Jets may struggle to exploit given their poor rushing statistics.

Trends to Watch

• The Bills are 2-3 ATS (Against The Spread) this season.
• The Jets are 2-3 ATS this season.
• Buffalo is 2-3 on the Over/Under this season.
• New York is 1-3-1 on the Over/Under this season.
• In their last 10 meetings, Buffalo is 7-3 straight up and 4-6 ATS against New York.
• The Jets have held opponents to under 253 total yards in each of their last three games.

X-Factor Analysis

The x-factor in this game could be the health and effectiveness of Buffalo’s key offensive players, particularly James Cook and Khalil Shakir. If they’re limited, it could hinder the Bills’ ability to move the ball consistently against the Jets’ formidable defense.

Conversely, if the Jets’ defense can continue its dominant performances, especially against the pass, they could keep the game close or pull off an upset. The battle between Buffalo’s offense and New York’s defense will likely determine the outcome of this contest.

The Bottom Line

This divisional matchup has all the makings of a defensive struggle. With both teams boasting top-tier defenses, the Jets’ recent defensive dominance, and potential limitations to Buffalo’s offense due to injuries, the UNDER 41 points looks even more appealing. The Bills’ superior offense still gives them a slight edge, but the narrow spread indicates a potentially close game.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills 20, New York Jets 17

Best Bets (Ranked by Confidence)

1. Under 41 points (-110)
2. Buffalo Bills -1 (-110)
3. Jets Total Team Points Under (odds TBD)