NFL Picks: Chiefs vs. Patriots ATS Analysis & Prediction

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (3-10 SU, 3-10 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, December 17, 1:00 PM EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Ma.
TV: Fox

Point Spread: KC -8.5 / NE +8.5
Moneyline: KC -460 / NE +340
Over/Under Total: 37

Andy Reid brings his Chiefs to Foxboro to battle Bill Belichick’s Patriots. A few years ago, this would have been a pick-em with a total near 50 in the game of the year, but this week BOVADA.LV has made the Chiefs 8.5 point road favorites and set the game total at 37. KC is having offensive troubles for the first time in Patrick Mahomes career, so let’s count on Belichick to keep that going, and take the home team and the points. Here are three reasons.

New England’s Defense Will Show Up

It’s hard to believe going into week 15 that the Chiefs’ offense ranks 11th in points scored, 14th in yards per passing attempt, and 6th in turnovers. In September and October, we were all waiting for Reid and Mahomes to straighten it out, but now, in the middle of December, we see that isn’t likely to happen. In their last six games, they have topped 21 points only against the Raiders while turning the ball over 11 times. Mahomes wants to blame the officiating for not allowing his receivers to line up off-sides, but the blame should fall on the lack of any of his receivers being able to win, with the exception of Travis Kelce. Reid is more willing to call run plays this year than at any time since Mahomes took over, but with Isiah Pacheko questionable with a bum shoulder, the running game may struggle like it did last week when the running backs totaled only 58 yards. This week, I am not looking for any breakthroughs for the Chiefs offense, especially against a strong New England stop unit.

The Patriot defense isn’t a top unit in the league, but they are a proud one that can go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs this week. They rank 14th in points allowed at 21 points per game, and are 10th in opponents yards per pass play. They haven’t given up more than 20 points since Week 8 and have held their last four opponents under 300 total yards. Belichick will have a plan to limit Kelce, and if Pacheco doesn’t play or is less than 100%, Mahomes and his receivers will have to find a way get the ball in the endzone. I think Sunday will be a busy day for KC’s punter. KC will have to sustain long drives, which they have struggled to do all year. I can see them getting in the endzone once or twice, but I don’t see them rolling over the Pats.

Zappe Gives The Pats Hope

New England visited the Steelers last Thursday night and scored 21 points in the first half, with QB Bailey Zappe tossing touchdown passes to get the Pats in the endzone. OC Bill O’Brien crafted a game plan to get the ball out early with quick passes and rushing Ezekiel Elliott. Zappe was only sacked twice by the Steelers, so look for a similar approach this week. Zappe is turnover-prone, so Belichick and O’Brien will try to keep him out of high-stress situations and then hope he makes good decisions. The win last week breathed life into the Patriots, which should have them on their A-game this week. At some point, we would expect New England to start being concerned about their draft position, but this week becomes the Pats Super Bowl, which will allow them to claim some moral victory on the season. Belichick isn’t a moral victory kind of guy, but he also isn’t the kind of guy to tank for a rookie quarterback.

KC’s defense may be the best unit the Pats have faced this year, but they have shown some cracks in the armor the past few weeks. Jordan Love and the Packers put up 27 points against them in week 13. The Packers may be slightly better than the Pats, but the Pats are on par with the Raiders, who put up 17 points and 358 yards against the Chiefs 1 week earlier. Kansas City is 28th in opponent’s yards per rush, so look for New England to lean on Elliott hard this week. He had a great game last week, but we’ll see if he can reel off two consecutive great games. When Zappe has to pass, the Chiefs will dial up the pressures. If Zappe can figure it out, he can make big plays, but I don’t like his chances.

Reid vs. Belichick Should Be Close

This is a classic match-up between the two best franchises of the past ten years. I think Belichick will turn this game into a slow slog of a game. Reid knows if he gets to 14 points and doesn’t make any catastrophic mistakes that, he can get back to KC with a win so that he won’t be forcing the issue. I think the Pats shut down Kelce, and Mahomes has only limited success with his other targets. The Pats will milk the clock on every snap and do everything they can to limit the number of possessions the Chiefs get. KC has not been good at covering games when they are more than a touchdown favorite, so even if the Pats fall behind, there will be an opportunity for a back-door cover.

Play the Home Dogs

Chiefs vs Patriots sounds like a great game, but this is setting up as another low-scoring, ugly one. Take the 8.5 points and count on Belichick to keep this game close.