MNF Picks: Bears vs. Vikings Side and Total Predictions

Chicago Bears (3-8 SU, 4-5-2 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (6-5 SU, 7-3-1 ATS)
Date/Time: Monday, November 27, 8:20 EST
Where: US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Chi +3.5 / Min -3.5
Moneyline: Chi +150 / Min -175
Over/Under Total: 45.5

It’s an NFC North battle on Monday Night Football this week, with the Bears visiting the Vikings. Both of these teams suffered last-minute losses last week (but covered the spreads), and BOVADA.LV is making Minnesota 3.5 point favorites and setting the over/under at 45.5. Let’s count on the Bears to keep this game within a field goal and cash tickets for their backers. Here is the handicap.

Chicago Is Playing Better

The Bears outplayed the Lions in Detroit last week for about 56 minutes, only to make a couple of bad coaching decisions and a typical Justin Fields turnover to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Chicago possessed the ball for over 40 minutes, was plus three in the turnover battle, and was tied or in the lead until there 29 tics left on the clock. However, in the end, their defense couldn’t make a stop with the game on the line. Chicago has been competitive in their last eight games with the exception of the Chargers games, that was Tyson Bagent’s second NFL start. They have only won three of those games primarily because they turn the ball over too much and have no pass rush to impact opposing offenses in the 4th quarter. Their offense is averaging 27 points and over 350 yards in Justin Fields’ last four starts. Chicago has the second-most rushing yards in the league, and D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet are legitimate targets in the passing game. They are top 10 in both 3rd down and red zone touchdown conversion percentages, but they have the 5th most turnovers in the league. Chicago should have success running the ball Monday Night, but Fields will have to be able to read and react to the Minnesota blitzes – something he isn’t very good at. I think they have a lot of success keeping the chains moving to stay in this game.

The Chicago defense is also improving as the season progresses. They allow the 2nd fewest rushing yards, which will help them against the Vikings attack led by Josh Dobbs. The elite Lion rushing attack managed 115 yards, which was the first time an opponent had topped 100 yards against the Bears since Week 3. They held these Vikings to 46 rushing yards in week 6. The problem with Chicago’s good rushing defenses is that they force their opponents to pass. The Bears allow the 7th most passing yards per game and are 31st in quarterback pressure rate. The Chicago secondary is finally completely healthy and picked off Jared Goff 3 times last week. But in the end, with no pressure Goff, he was able to make enough plays to win. The Bears have had better luck against weaker QBs, and I think they will be able to limit Dobbs in the passing game. Dobbs has proven he is a great leader, but he is one of the weaker passers the Bears have faced.

Minnesota Turns The Ball Over Too

The Vikings had a golden chance to move to 7-4 on Sunday Night against the Broncos. They held the ball for 35 minutes and outgained Denver by 100 yards but lost the turnover battle 3-0, which proved to be too much to overcome. Minnesota ran over a bad Bronco rush defense for 175 yards, and Dobbs passed for 221 yards, but he also threw a pick in addition to losing a fumble on the opening drive. The Vikings should get back star Wide Receiver Justin Jefferson this week, but Jefferson will not be as dangerous with Dobbs throwing the ball. Minnesota’s offense has transformed into a grinding unit under Dobbs, and that is what they will try to do on Monday. Minnesota averages only 3.9 yards per carry on the season and averaged 2.1 yards per carry against the Bears, so I don’t think they will sustain long drives with their running games. I think Dobbs will make some off-script plays, but I don’t see them scoring in the high 20s or running away and hiding from the Bears this week. Coach Kevin O’Connell has become very conservative since losing Cousins and will be more conservative this week after last week’s three turnovers.

The Vikings’ defense under Brian Flores has become the highest-blitzing team in the league. They continuously pressured Russell Wilson last week until the game-winning drive when they fell into their Prevent defense, which allowed the Broncos to move the ball downfield with ease. They will try to light up Fields this week like they did in Week 6 when they sacked Fields and Bagent five times and notched two interceptions. They have a solid rush defense, so the key to this game becomes how well they contain Fields running. But I think Fields will have some running success, and the Bears will be better prepared for the all-out blitzes in their second meeting.

The Dobbs Magic Is Overrated

Dobbs is a great story, and his wins with the Vikings while not knowing the playbook or his teammates is impressive, but at the end of the day, he is a middling NFL backup QB who is a big step down from Kirk Cousins. He has a 2-8 record as a starter this year, thrown six interceptions, and fumbled 14 times. Now he is laying 3.5 points? When the Bears hosted the Vikings in week 6, Minnesota was a 3-point favorite, which would have been seven or maybe 7.5 had the Vikings been playing at home. Now the downgrade from Cousins to Dobbs is only 3.5 or 4 points? That’s not enough. This game should be less than a field goal, and the Bears would still probably be the right side.

Play The Bears

I like Chicago to keep this game to a field goal or less and possibly sneak out of Minnesota with a win. My favorite bet in this game would be Under 45.5. The teams totaled 29 in Week 6, and that was with Cousins. Play the Bears and Under.