MNF Pick: Titans vs. Dolphins Prediction ATS

Tennessee Titans (4-8 SU, 5-7ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Date/Time: Monday, December 11, 8:15 PM EST
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fl
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Ten +13.5 /Mia -13.5
Moneyline: Ten +575 /Mia -900
Over/Under Total: 47.5

Mike Vrabel brings his Tennessee Titans to South Florida to take on the Dolphins as part of the NFL week 14 Monday Night doubleheader. BOVADA.LV is making the 13.5-point favorites and setting the game total at 47.5. Let’s take the points and count on the Titans keeping the game within the number. Here are three reasons.

Tennessee’s Offense Will Score

Will Levis has been up and down since he took over behind center six weeks ago. He had a huge game against Atlanta in his debut, followed by a couple of duds, but has settled in to play solid the last few weeks. He is taking care of the ball, only throwing two interceptions while tossing seven touchdowns, so he is not losing games. Of course, the Titans attack revolves around their running game. Derrick Henry is still the centerpiece of the offense and capable of grinding out drives, but Tyjae Spears has become more of a factor in the offense. Henry is in the concussion protocol, so it may fall to Spears to carry the load on Monday. He has shown some bursts and will have to be effective on Monday for the Titans to stay in the game and keep Miami’s offense on the sidelines. I think Levis can guide the Titans to some scoring drives by leaning on the running game and working in DeAndre Hopkins down the field on play-action. They don’t want to get in a track meet with Miami, but they can control the ball and put points on the board.

The Miami defense continues to improve and is especially effective when their offense gets out to a lead that forces their opponent to become one-dimensional. They have become very opportunistic, taking the ball away ten times over their last six contests, so it will be key for Levis and the Titan offense to protect the ball. Teams that have kept games close have been able to move the ball on the ground against Miami. The defense hasn’t been tested much in the past three weeks, but look for the Titans to lean on the running game and not put Levis in a position where he has to drop back and pass on every play. I think Levis and the Titans running game can be methodical and put some points on the board.

Vrabel Can Limit Miami’s Offense

We all know the Miami offense is one of the toughest in the league to stop. They have the fastest skill players assembled on an NFL roster, a quarterback with pinpoint accuracy, play designs, and motion concepts that baffle defenses. But there is one key to stopping an explosion by the Dolphins – stop Tyreek Hill from making huge plays. In the five games that Hill’s longest catch was 27 yards or less, Miami has not topped 25 points. In the other seven games (all wins), Hill has a catch of at least 35 yards and the team has scored 31 points or more. The Fins have other playmakers and a great running attack, but Hill is the player who changes games with one play. In those games, Hill was kept under control; the Dolphins turned the ball over eight times and had a record of 2-3, with the two wins both coming by seven points.

The Titans defense isn’t the greatest in the league, but I think they can win the battle in the trenches to slow down this offense. The strength of Tennessee’s D is their line, while the weakness of the Dolphin offense is their offensive line. I think Vrabel, coming from the Belichick system, along with Defensive Coordinator Shane Bowen, will have a plan not to let Hill blow up the game. Tennessee is middle of the pack in the league in yards per play against, but still, top 10 in fewest points allowed, so they know the art of “bend but don’t break”. I look for Vrabel and the Titans to take away big plays Monday Night, forcing long drives from Tua and Miami’s offense. This should keep the Dolphins in the 20s rather, which gives the Titans an excellent chance to cover.

Tennessee Covers As Road Dogs

In the last three years, the Titans covered 67% of their games as road dogs. Vrabel excels at motivating his team in these spots and builds his squads to wear down opponents and keep games close so his team can win (or at least cover) in the end. This year, the Titans are just 1-5 in that spot. With some stability coming back to the Titans, I look for this trend to revert back to the previous years, and this big number is a great starting point. Everything has gone right and been easy for the Dolphins the last couple of games, so they are a little overvalued. Miami can blow a game open in the snap of a finger, but the Titans have a history of showing up in these situations.

Play The Titans

Let’s count on the Titans to stay within two touchdowns and cash tickets on Monday Night Football.