MNF Pick: Packers vs. Raiders Week 5 Predictions

Green Bay Packers (SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Date/Time: Monday, October 9, 8:15 PM EST

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

• Point Spread: GB -2 / LV+2
• Moneyline: GB -135 / LV +115
• Over/Under Total: 44.5

The Packers head to Sin City to close out week 5 of the NFL season with a Monday Night Football clash against the Raiders. BOVADA.LV has made the Packers 2-point favorites and set the over/under at 44.5. With the tight point spread, all we have to do is pick the winner, and our ticket should cash, so let’s roll with the Pack to win on the road. Here are three reasons.

Green Bay Will Bounce Back

Jordan Love is just four games into his role as QB1 for the Packers, but he has already had some ups and downs. He is only completing 56% of his passes, but he has thrown for eight touchdowns against three interceptions. He looked really good against the Bears and in leading a come-from-behind victory against the Saints, but then he looked totally lost last week at home against the Lions in prime time. Love is a typical inexperienced QB that needs time to throw, and he didn’t have it against Detroit. The Lions rushed out to an early lead, forcing Love into obvious passing situations and resulting in him taking five sacks. The Packers did get two key offensive weapons back last week, receiver Christian Watson and running back Aaron Jones, though neither were effective. They both should be 100% healthy this week and create a much more dynamic attack. Although there are also issues on the Packers’ offensive line, I expect Love will have more time to throw and be able to hook up with his downfield threats. While Watson was out, Love developed some chemistry with Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, which should give Love 3 capable targets now that Watson has returned. Jones only rushed the ball five times for 18 yards last week, but look for better production against Las Vegas.

The Vegas defense has not been very good. They are bottom 10 in points allowed, yards per play, and sacks, and last week, when they picked off Justin Herbert, it was their first and only turnover of the year. Maxx Crosby is one of the best pass rushers in the league and could cause problems for the Pack, but he is the only playmaker on the defensive side of the ball for LV. I expect some modest success for the Packers offense on Monday night. Jones should be better this week, which should set up some play-action for Love to take advantage of the Raider secondary. With little pass rush threatening them, I think Green Bay will be patient moving the ball down the field but be able to hook up with a couple of big plays to the receiving corps and put points on the board.

Las Vegas Offense Is Stuck

Josh McDaniels’s squad is generally focused on getting the ball to their two stud players, receiver Davante Adams and runner Josh Jacobs. Jacobs had his best game of the year last week against the Chargers but still is averaging less than 3 yards per carry. Adams continues to play at an All-Pro level and will be the focal point for Green Bay’s defense this week. QB Jimmy Garoppolo could not clear the concussion protocol last week but should be ready to go on Monday night. Garoppolo is obviously a better option than 4th round rookie Aidan O’Connell, who started last week and turned the ball over three times while taking six sacks. However, Jimmy G has thrown six picks in his three starts and looks tentative in this offense. The Raider offense finally looked good last week in garbage time against one of the weakest defenses in the league. But with a very vanilla scheme and a weak offensive line, I think they have trouble scoring into the 20s against Green Bay, which they haven’t done this year.

Green Bay’s defense is very similar to their offense. They have had some good performances but looked bad last week against the Lions. Jared Goff and the Lion offense utilized their elite offensive line to keep the Packer defense on the field for 40 minutes, which wore the Packer defense down. But Green Bay came into that game with 11 sacks on the year, so they have the capability to get after opposing quarterbacks, and I think we will see that on Monday night. Green Bay should also get back cornerback Jaire Alexander, who will be able to make at least Adams work for everything he gets. I like the Packer defense to also bounce back and have a strong performance on Monday Night.

There Is Value On The Pack

I don’t understand why this line is less than a field goal. The Packers have played well in three of their games before getting handled in Detroit, while the Raiders have only been competitive with the Broncos – and only scored 17 against that bad Denver defense. The game is in Vegas, but there will be more Green Bay fans in the building than Raider fans. Green Bay has the better defense, the better offensive line, the better coach, and as good of skill players. I think we are getting some line value based on the way the Packers looked on national television last Thursday and how the Raiders looked during garbage time against a bad Charger defense and an injured Herbert. McDaniels proved again in Week 3 that he can’t manage a game, so what is the basis for this spread being so tight?

Play The Packers

Green Bay is the right side for Week 5, Monday Night. Trust the Packers to bring home a win and cover the short spread.