MNF Pick: Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets

Los Angeles Chargers (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. New York Jets (4-3 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)

Date/Time: Monday, November 6, 8:15 PM EST

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: LAC -2.5 / NYJ +2.5

Moneyline: LAC -140 / NYJ +120

Over/Under Total: 42.5

The Chargers travel to the Big Apple for a Monday Night matchup with the Jets. Both squads are coming off of Week 8 wins and need this game as they start looking at making playoff runs, so it should be an entertaining end to the Week 9 slate of NFL games. BOVADA.LV is making the Jets 2½ point home dogs, and the game total at 42½ and the play is to buy a J-E-T-S ticket and count on them to cover the number and possibly win the game. Here are three reasons.

DEFENSE

The Jets defense comes into every game since Aaron Rodgers was carted off the field in Week 1, knowing their path to victory is led by their defense. They are top-10 in opponent’s points allowed and top 5 in opponent’s yards per passing attempt. This is despite the fact that they have faced four of the top offensive attacks in the league – the Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Eagles. Gang Green’s defense is anchored by their defensive line, with 2nd-year cornerback Sauce Gardner patrolling the secondary. New York has created 13 takeaways on the year, including eight interceptions. Though they are bottom 10 in sacks, they are top 3 in quarterback pressures, so the sack numbers should even out as the season plays out. I expect another elite performance from the Jet defense as they get a chance to play in the national spotlight on Monday night against a Charger offense that is a little overrated.

Justin Herbert and Chargers offense has the reputation of being a top-tier offense, but they have not played that way over the past month. They looked really good against last Sunday night against a Bears defense that couldn’t generate any pass rush but struggled in the previous weeks against the Chiefs and Cowboys. Austin Ekeler has been one of the most versatile backs in the league the last few years, but he hasn’t topped 3.2 yards per carry or 45 rushing yards in the last three weeks since he returned from an ankle injury. He’s still a dangerous weapon in the passing game, but the inability to run the ball will be an issue for LA on Monday night. Since Mike Williams was lost for the season in week 3, Keenan Allen has stepped up his game, but none of the other receivers have filled the void left by Big Mike. Josh Palmer has flashed at times, but he is having knee issues that are limiting his effectiveness. The lack of a secondary option for Herbert will be a hurdle that will be difficult to overcome against a swarming Jet defense, with Gardner working his magic against Allen. I expect a lot of 3 and outs for the Chargers this week, as they will have to rely 100% on their passing game to move the ball, which will prove very difficult. Without another receiver breaking out this week, it’s hard to imagine LA scoring into the 20s.

New York’s Zach Wilson led offense is just what we expected. Wilson has a capable NFL arm and occasionally makes throws that displays why he was the second overall pick a few years ago. He has shown more poise this year when the game is on the line, including leading the Jets to 2 4th quarter comebacks. Garrett Wilson would probably be considered a top-five receiver in the league this year had Rodgers not gotten hurt, and is capable of making circus catches and taking any pass to the house. But the engine of New Yorks’s attack is Breece Hall who has established himself as a premier offensive weapon. Last week Hall took a screen pass 50 yards for New York’s only touchdown and the previous week he ran 39 yards a score against the Eagles. Hall is fully recovered from the torn ACL he suffered during last season, and he will be the Chargers #1 priority on defense. The Jets’ offense is hard to watch and will go 3-and-out on multiple consecutive drives during the game, but then they will sustain a long drive, and they have been good when the game is on the line. Wilson has also taken care of the ball much better this year, as New York has only turned the ball over three times in the last five games. The only easy defense the Jets have faced this year was the Broncos in Week 5, when they put up 31 points and 407 yards and won by 10.

The Chargers’ defense is more similar to the Broncos than any of the other units New York has faced. The only team that allows more yards per play than the Chargers is the Broncos, and LA allows the most passing yards per game. They have faced a tough slate in the early going and done better against weak offenses such as the Raiders and Bears, but they are not a shut-down unit. The Jets will copy the Bears’ offensive plan last week, which had success blending in a power running game with some shot plays that connected downfield. Tyson Bagent threw a couple of bad interceptions last week, which locked the game up for the Chargers, so we will have to count on Wilson to be smarter with the ball. I think the Jets offense has success on Monday night. Hall and Garrett Wilson are game-changers, and the Chargers’ defense tends to get out of sync or blow some coverages every week, which will open up the opportunity for New York’s big plays.

The Jets Should Be Favored

I don’t understand how the Chargers are road favorites in this spot. New York has played four legitimate Super Bowl contenders and is 2-2 against them, while the Chargers have played three and lost all three. The Jets have a strong home field advantage when the team is in contention, and LA is one of the worst coached teams in the league. The Jets have covered four spreads on the year, meaning they are playing above expectations, so we would expect the market to adjust, but this line has moved to the Chargers after last week’s games, where the Jets won a hard-fought battle in overtime against their home town rival Giants, while the Chargers had an easy time with the hapless Bears. New York doesn’t win any style points, but they are winning games and cashing tickets.

Play The Jets At Home

Play the home dogs on Monday night, both with the points and on the money line. I also like the under.