MNF Pick: Eagles at Chiefs Betting Analysis & Predictions

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1 SU, 5-2-2 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS)
Date/Time: Monday, November 20, 8:15 PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Phi +3 / KC +3
Moneyline: Phi +130 / KC -150
Over/Under Total: 45.5

It’s a Super Bowl rematch – and possibly a Super Bowl preview – on Monday Night Football when the Eagles visit Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. Both teams currently hold the #1 seeds in their respective conferences, and BOVADA.LV has made the Chiefs 3-point home favorites and set the game total at 45.5. Let’s take the Chiefs to cover the short spread at home. Here are three reasons.

Mahomes Is Still The Best

There is a lot of talk this year about other quarterbacks closing the gap with Mahomes, including Jalen Hurts of the Eagles. There are QBs with some better stats than Mahomes in 2023, but none are better at winning big games. Mahomes is starting to establish a rapport with receiver Rashee Rice, giving him an alternate to TE Travis Kelce while still utilizing Marquez Valdes-Scantling or some of their other gadget receivers to stretch the field. Mahomes will be able to move the ball through the air on Monday night, and Kelce should be able to have a big night. He had 81 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl and matches up well against the Eagles linebackers and safeties. Coach Andy Reid has been more willing to run the ball this year, with Isiah Pacheco having a strong season as the lead back. He is averaging just under 60 yards per contest while also becoming a steady option in the passing attack. There won’t be a lot of running plays called by the Chiefs, but they should be effective when needed. Reid schemed up plays to score 38 in the Super Bowl, so we can count on him rolling out something new this week that will leave the Eagles flat-footed.

The Eagle defense has not been the dominant unit they were last year. Before their Week 10 bye, they gave up 333 passing yards to the Cowboys and 388 passing yards to the Commanders the week before that. Their secondary has suffered some injuries and just hasn’t played well, allowing 6.9 yards per passing attempt and ranking 20th in the league in takeaways. They are stout against the run and have a strong pass rush, but KC has allowed the fewest sacks in the league with only 12. I think Reid and Mahomes will be able to exploit the Eagle secondary. We should see some long drives and maybe a shock play to Valdez-Scantling over the top for a quick score. KC won’t mess around with the run but will be able to utilize the short-passing game to hold the ball and move the chains.

The Chiefs D Is For Real

Hurts will bring a very balanced attack to Arrowhead that will be a challenge for the KC defense. Philly is 4th in the league in points per game and ranks in the top 10 in both rushing and passing yards per game. A.J. Brown looks like a man playing with boys on the outside. He had reeled off six consecutive 100-yard receiving games before the Cowboys broke the streak in week 9, and he will be a handful on Monday Night. D’Andre Swift leads the rushing attack and has been hot and cold during the first half of the season. Philly counts on Hurts to contribute to the running game, but he is only averaging 3.6 yards per attempt on the season and hasn’t topped 40 yards since week 4. Though he hasn’t been on the injury report, he obviously had a knee issue before the bye, so we will have to see how well he is moving. The Eagles line makes everything work, and they will have their work cut out for them in KC.

The Chiefs’ defense doesn’t get as much credit for their 7-2 record as the offense, but they deserve it. They have allowed the fewest points in the league, have the 3rd lowest yards per pass attempt allowed, and are 2nd in the league in sacks. They have been able to close out games and shut down opponents with the game on the line. Their secondary is elite, and the most passing yards any team has gained against them is 259. They are nothing special against the run, but their opponents generally can’t keep up just by running the ball. KC will have some exotic blitzes to pressure Hurts and will try to take the ball away for the 10th consecutive game this year. Philly’s offense can’t be completely stopped, but I think the Chiefs D gets some big stops in the 2nd half to ice this game.

Andy Reid Is The Difference

Reid is the best offensive mind the NFL has, and he has an extra week to prepare for the Eagles. Reid was the difference in the Super Bowl, exploiting coverage weaknesses when the Chiefs were in the red zone, and we should expect the same this week. Many teams have stayed close to the Chiefs in big games, but at some point in the second half, the Chief defense gets a takeaway, then Mahomes and Reid work their magic, and all of a sudden, KC is ahead and in control. I think the same thing happens this week – maybe Philly will look like the better team, but the scoreboard will show KC wins the game by four or more points.

Play the Chiefs

I like the Chiefs at home in this big game. I think the line moves between 3 and 2½ during the week, so try to get the best of the number. I also like the under, with seven of KC’s games going under on the season thus far.