MNF Pick: Dallas Cowboys vs. LA Chargers

Dallas Cowboys (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Monday, October 16, 8:15 PM EST
Where: SoFi Stadium
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Dal -2½ / LAC +2.5
Moneyline: Dal -140 / LAC +120
Over/Under Total: 49.5

Dallas gets the opportunity to make up for last Sunday’s embarrassing performance in San Francisco when they move down the California coast to take on the Chargers this Monday Night. BOVADA.LV has made the Cowboys 2.5 point road favorites and set the over/under at 49.5. Let’s make a bet that Dallas won’t be able to right the ship this week and take the points and the Chargers. Here are three reasons.

The Cowboys Are Frauds

Dallas has a lot of talent, and coming into the season, they were in the discussion with the Eagles and 49ers as potential NFC Champions. After five weeks, it is clear the Cowboys are not in the elite echelon in the NFC, and are probably not even a top 10 team in the NFL. We thought when they manhandled the Giants, Jets, and Patriots that they were showing us their true colors, but in hindsight, the Giants and Patriots are among the NFL’s worst teams, and the Jets, in their first week after the loss of Aaron Rodgers, were not ready to play. The offense looked good through 4 weeks, especially between the 20-yard lines, but they are 28th in the league in red zone efficiency, and their running game, which was supposed to be the cornerstone of the offense, is 20th in the league in yards per attempt, and Tony Pollard has not become the dynamic weapon as expected. But the big problem with the Dallas offense is Dak Prescott. Dak has turned into a game manager who plays his worst at the biggest times. He threw a bad interception late in the game against Arizona, and last week, when his offense needed to keep pace with the 49ers, he led the team to eight first downs, and one scoring drive.

The Dallas defense dominated their weak opponents in September but got run over by the Cardinals’ mediocre attack in Week 3 and then was totally overmatched last Sunday Night. The loss of cornerback Trevon Diggs showed last week, and will be just as big of a factor this week against a talented Charger receiving corps. Micah Parsons is a one-man wrecking crew, but he is dealing with some nagging injuries and is a complete non-factor in San Fran. The offense they will face in LA is not as well scripted as the one they saw last Sunday, but the talent is at least as good, with a better quarterback. Dallas allowed the Cardinals to run for over 200 yards, then last week, CMC and his back-ups ran for 170. The Dallas defense has only been good this year when their opponent is in obvious passing situations (with bad quarterbacks), but I don’t expect that will be the case this week. San Fran held the ball for close to 40 minutes last week, wearing out the Dallas defense and putting even more pressure on Prescott and the offense. I don’t expect the time of possession is that lobsided this week, but I think the Chargers will control the game and put together long drives that put points on the board.

Justin Herbert Is The Best QB In This Game

LA’s offense didn’t start the season out great, not being able to keep up with the high-powered Dolphins and then falling in Tennessee. They lost WR Mike Williams for the season in Week 3 and have played the last two games without star runner Austin Ekeler. But Herbert continues to prove he is a top 5 quarterback and will rise to the moment when the game is on the line. He has completed 71% of his passes, notching seven touchdowns against only one interception and ranking 5th in the league at 7.9 yards per attempt. Ekeler should return this week, which will shore up the running game and also add another weapon in the passing game. Receivers Josh Palmer and rookie Quentin Johnston can fill the void left by Williams, giving LA multiple passing options and causing the Cowboys to defend the whole field. Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore was fired by Dallas last off-season and should know the weaknesses of the Dallas scheme and have his best game plan ready on Monday. I think LA puts up a big number on Dallas this week.

The Charger defense has not been anything special, but they have the pieces. Pass rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa should be able to put some pressure on Prescott, and the Chargers have created seven turnovers in their four games, so they have playmakers that can make game-changing plays. LA is coming off their bye, so I am looking for some incremental improvement in the LA defense. They have had some personnel changes in the back end of their defense and should start to play better off of the bye. This is not a shut-down defense, but it is a defense that can slow down and frustrate the Dallas attack, and have the edge this week when the stakes are the highest.

The Chargers Should Be Favored

LA doesn’t have a big home-field advantage, but this line implies that on a neutral field, Dallas would be better than a field goal favorite and possibly a touchdown favorite if the game was in Dallas. What has Dallas done to make the betting world believe they are that much better than the Chargers? Their three wins looked good at the time but are not impressive, and their loss against Arizona showed us that Dallas isn’t mentally tough in close games. We could expect some bounce back here from Dallas, but that requires strong leaders, which it doesn’t look like the Cowboys have. The Chargers will be the healthier team, and coming off of their bye, they will be better rested and should have a solid game plan with Moore’s insider knowledge about the Cowboys. Opposite of the Cowboys, LA has played four close games, winning the last two as the clock ran down. Both teams have coaches that occasionally make us wonder what they are thinking, so hopefully, Brandon Staley doesn’t out-stupid Mike McCarthy. These teams are even, or the Chargers are a little bit better, and with that, they should be a slight favorite in LA.

Play Against The Cowboys

I think Dallas is a bet against team when playing against a team that they cannot push around. I like the Chargers plus the points or on the Moneyline.